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This is the Thursday Night Football game we have been waiting on for fantasy. We had to endure all of the Bears/Panthers, Steelers/Titans, Bears/Commanders, and 49ers/Giants debacles so we could have this masterpiece. Something to be thankful for a week before Thanksgiving is the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night.
Just a game and a half separate these long-time rivals and both are coming off brutal losses, on last-second field goals, with something to prove. Unlike last week's game, there is no shortage of viable fantasy options in this one, but the looming question is can the Bengals solve this elite Ravens defense?
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this 10th Thursday Night Football matchup of the 2023 season.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens - 8:15 pm ET
Be sure to also check out our Bengals vs. Ravens NFL Actives/Inactives Report for Thursday Night Football. Notable Injuries:
- Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) - Hamstring - OUT
- Andrei Iosivas (WR, CIN) - Knee - OUT
- Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL) - Ankle - QUESTIONABLE
- Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL) - Hamstring - QUESTIONABLE
Bengals vs. Ravens Matchup Breakdown
This game, as you might expect, comes down to the quarterbacks. Specifically, can the Bengals solve the Lamar Jackson problem, something they have rarely been able to do? Jackson is a career 7-2 against Cincinnati with a 12:4 touchdown to interception ratio and he has absolutely torched them with his legs. He averages almost 72 rushing yards against them for his career as these games have typically been high-pressure and high-scoring.
Jackson has, however, been more cautious with his rushing this year. He is averaging his lowest yards per game and yards per attempt since his rookie season, but he still has 481 yards and five rushing scores already. Cincinnati has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year so their ability to stop him will be the key to their defense.
Cincinnati will be without Tee Higgins again, which limits their offensive potential, at least a little bit. They did manage 27 points against Houston last week, but the Texans' defense isn't in the same universe as Baltimore. The Bengals throw at the second-highest rate in the league this year (behind only Washington), but Baltimore allows the fewest yards per completion to opponents. Joe Burrow is going to have to go full ice-water-in-his-veins to pull this one out.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Lamar Jackson (WR, BAL)
As mentioned above, Lamar Jackson has absolutely destroyed the Bengals in his career. He is a top-five option this week, and the only concerns are the Ravens giving the running backs a whole bunch of goal-line carries or the defense being so dominant that Lamar's arms and legs aren't necessary in the second half.
Four years ago today, Lamar Jackson showed the world that he was Houdini with an unreal spin move touchdown against the Bengals pic.twitter.com/ljRZNEh8hi
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) November 10, 2023
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
The Bengals allow the fourth-most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. Mark Andrews is fourth among tight ends in overall target share this season. It really isn't a hard equation to solve. Andrews is a great play on Thursday.
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
In standard fantasy scoring, Joe Burrow has finished as a top-eight quarterback in four of his last five games and hasn't thrown fewer than two touchdowns in a game since Week 4. This is his toughest test since San Francisco, but with the Bengals throwing almost 65% of the time, Burrow can at least get there on volume.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase historically balls out without Tee Higgins in the lineup. For his career, he has 484 yards and six touchdowns in five games without his wide receiver partner. In his last two games without him, Chase has 192 and 124 yards. You were never sitting Chase anyway, but this could be an even bigger game than normal if Burrow has time to throw.
In six career games without Tee Higgins (includes one game where Tee played 1 snap), Ja'Marr Chase averages:
* 9.7 targets
* 7 receptions
* 100.5 receiving yards
* 1.17 TDs
* 24 PPR points— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) November 15, 2023
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Zay Flowers (WR, BAL)
Flowers has been the most reliable wide receiver for Baltimore this year, even if he does tend to disappear for a game every now and then. Flowers has at least six targets in five out of the last six games, good for a 24.5% target share this season. Cincinnati is a top-12 team in allowing the lowest completion percentage to opponents' quarterbacks, so there is a chance Lamar isn't able to force-feed targets to Flowers.
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)
Only seven running backs have more attempts inside the 10-yard line than Gus Edwards this season, and it has led to eight rushing scores on those carries, which is the most at the position. Edwards has begun to lose snaps to Keaton Mitchell, but the Bengals are 31st in the league with 5.0 yards per rush allowed to their opponents.
Keaton Mitchell (RB, BAL)
On just four touches in Week 10, Keaton Mitchel had 66 yards and a score and would have had another if not for a dropped touchdown pass. He played a season-high 24% of snaps in his last game and there are now whispers that he will be getting a bigger role in this offense because of his explosive plays. How much work that actually translates to remains to be seen, but he is moving into flex play consideration every week.
Keaton Mitchell
25% Explosive Run Rate (1st)CIN
32nd vs Explosive Runs pic.twitter.com/qgso43ivVr— Joel Smyth (@fantasysmyth) November 15, 2023
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Baltimore is just middle of the pack this year against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents. But they do an excellent job on running backs once they reach the red zone, allowing just 0.4 rushing touchdowns per game. Joe Mixon still routinely gets 70-75% of the running back snaps every game and has at least 14 touches in every game this season. The Ravens will be stingy, but Mixon can get to RB2 status this week on volume.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
All Tyler Boyd did last week with Tee Higgins out was lead the team in targets with 12. He turned those targets into eight catches for 117 yards and a near touchdown and will certainly have another 90% of snaps coming his way in Week 11. He is a strong WR3 option this week, with a ceiling for more if the Bengals are forced to throw all game.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Trenton Irwin (WR, CIN)
Trenton Irwin jumped up to 81% of snaps played in Week 10 and that resulted in two catches for 54 yards and a score. He is the direct replacement on the field for Tee Higgins, but Chase and Boyd likely have more of the target share in this game. If you're in a deep league with more than 12 teams, Irwin is likely in your lineup this week, but I don't know that we can count on 50+ yards and a score against a stingy Baltimore pass defense.
Irv Smith Jr. and Tanner Hudson (TEs, CIN)
Tanner Hudson has had quite the two weeks for Cincinnati, earning 12 targets and gaining 78 total yards. But both Smith and Hudson have no more than 20 total targets on the season and are too unreliable to be every-week starters, particularly against a Baltimore team that only allows 4.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends this year.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, BAL)
Is it possible the OBJ of old is back? He has back-to-back weeks with more than 40 yards and a touchdown, but it's come with a peculiar pattern. His snaps have actually decreased in four straight weeks, bottoming out at 33% in Week 10. He is the very definition of boom or bust and should only be started if you're desperate.
VINTAGE ODELL BECKHAM JR 😈 pic.twitter.com/90D3TJZZfj
— PFF (@PFF) November 12, 2023
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
Rashod Bateman finally played more than 70% of snaps in a game last week, but it couldn't break his streak of nine games with no touchdowns and no more than 36 receiving yards. He is, at best, the fourth option for Lamar Jackson in the passing game on this team.
Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks
Current Spread: BAL -3.5, TOTAL: 46
Unless we're talking about the fourth quarter of last week's game against the Browns, the Ravens have been able to do two things seemingly at will. First, they have been able to score at ease, combining a bruising rushing attack with targeted throws to Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. Second, they have been imposing their will on defense against all who dare to step up to them.
Before last week's anomaly against Cleveland, Baltimore gave up just 10.3 points per game in their prior six contests, including three points in their first game against the Browns. Week 2 resulted in a modest shootout between these two teams with the Ravens pulling it out 27-24 in Cincinnati. Now, with an improved defense and Cincinnati missing a big piece of their offense, I think something like a 27-20 win seems to be in order for the Ravens on Thursday night.
Picks: BAL -3.5, OVER
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