Overvalued, Undervalued Fantasy Football Rookies in 2024 Best Ball Drafts

Joel Smyth breaks down three overvalued and undervalued fantasy football rookies in 2024 best-ball drafts. Which of these players will boom or bust in Year 1?

Rookie fever is in full force. Although fantasy football drafts still have a few months to go, best ball is well on its way. 

Two things are common this time of year. Rookies are undervalued, as less information is known about key players who have yet to step on the field. Fantasy players are skeptical of taking unproven rookies even at a value. On the opposite end, a large group of rookies are overvalued. The hype around newcomers soars throughout the offseason, although they may not make an impact out of the gate as people hope. 

Here are three undervalued rookies and three overvalued rookies for best-ball drafts in 2024.

Undervalued Fantasy Football Rookies

Jayden Daniels - ADP QB17

If I could guarantee any one player’s ADP to rise before the season, it would be Jayden Daniels. 

Story time! In 2020, Cam Newton returned to starting status with the New England Patriots. After eight passing touchdowns in the entire season, the Patriots missed the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Newton finished as the fantasy QB15. 

Fantasy does not care about how bad of a quarterback you are if you run wild. Of the 36 quarterbacks to run 100+ times in a season since 2000, 31 averaged over 17.5 points per game. Spoiler: Daniels will run over 100 times. 

QB17 is the absolute worst-case scenario while being a QB1 is nearly a guarantee based on history. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray are all examples of recent rushing quarterbacks to finish top 10 as Year 1 starters thanks to elite rushing volume.

Jayden Daniels 85 yard TD run vs Florida. anyone else reminded of another long TD run? pic.twitter.com/HCmjRG1ASD

— obvlon (@obvlon) March 17, 2024

Jonathon Brooks - ADP RB31

Rookie running backs are far more often underrated than overrated. In the last nine years, the first rookie running back drafted has beaten ADP all but one time. 15 rookies have finished in the top 24 in the last five seasons alone. Jonathon Brooks has the situation to continue the trend.

Three things to look for in a rookie running back: draft capital, opportunity, and receiving. Brooks checks all three boxes. The Panthers, with plenty of needs, took the Texas running back in Round 2 to take over this backfield.

In terms of the passing game, Brooks will benefit from having the perfect quarterback and coach duo to take advantage of his receiving skills. Bryce Young’s leading receiver in his final year of college? Jahmyr Gibbs. Dave Canales running back in 2023? Rachaad White. Opportunity alone makes him a value. 

Jonathon Brooks can play. Lots of explosives because of his long speed and nice cutback vision. Few nice grabs like this one. Won't get combine testing because of torn ACL, but he's fast. A few times where better balance or pad level would've sprung open first downs. pic.twitter.com/d6ftwCr5UM

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) February 1, 2024

Jaylen Wright - ADP RB42

De'Von Achane was the ADP RB41 in best-ball fantasy a year ago. He finished fourth in points per game. The closest thing you could find to Achane in this year's draft class would be Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee. There are three points, that once people put together, will raise his ADP dramatically. 

Mike McDaniel is a running back’s dream. The Dolphins use their dynamic zone scheme to get speed backs in space, resulting in the highest expected fantasy points in the NFL. Wright’s sub-4.4 speed is one reason McDaniel loves him. 

How do I know McDaniel loves his new running back? Because he traded a third-round pick to move up and take him. Draft capital is the biggest factor in success and Wright’s fourth-round capital is misconstrued.

Lastly, Raheem Mostert. Although exceptional in 2023, he’s 32 years old. The volume will continue to decrease and the likelihood of falling off grows with each passing day. 

Wright does not need much volume to make an impact in this high-flying offense. And when it comes to best ball, all you need is one big play.

Final running back expected fantasy points by team!

You want your RB's to be on teams at the top in fantasy pic.twitter.com/xdpA2AO19A

— Nick Zylak (@NickZylakFFA) January 8, 2024

Overvalued Fantasy Football Rookies

Rome Odunze - ADP WR38

I love Rome Odunze. At the same time, way too much is against him in Year 1. The obvious, he’s the WR3 in this Bears offense. Rarely do we see WR2s be fantasy success stories, almost never a WR3. 

Second, Caleb Williams can be great, but he’s still a rookie. Over the last decade, only two receivers finished better than 20th in points per game with a rookie quarterback. If Williams does provide an outlier top fantasy wideout, I’d rather bet on DJ Moore or Keenan Allen over the young rookie.

WR38 is a steep price for the amount of volume he is expected to command. He is sandwiched between Marquise Brown and Diontae Johnson, two receivers who have been (at minimum) 100-target players year in and year out. To hit 100 targets in Year 1, Odunze would need approximately an 18% target share with Moore, Allen, Kmet, and Swift alongside him.

CHI TOWNNN 🐻 pic.twitter.com/VjQY3oOsdB

— Rome Odunze (@RomeOdunze) April 26, 2024

Brian Thomas Jr. - ADP WR43

First-round receivers are not guaranteed to hit. As a one-year college producer with a low yards per route run, Thomas Jr. is a risky selection for a top-45 receiver.

It would be one thing if he were drafted into a situation similar to that of Keon Coleman or Ladd McConkey. However, the former LSU star landed in Jacksonville with plenty of weapons around him. Evan Engram and Christian Kirk are target hogs, newcomer Gabe Davis plays a similar role, and Travis Etienne remains one of the best receiving weapons out of the backfield. 

I see his Year 1 being similar to a Joshua Palmer -- a solid downfield role player in an offense with a good quarterback, but plenty of weapons. 

Yards per Route Run vs Man/Zone coverage among notable WR prospects in college, upcoming draft class is highlighted. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/qo7j1jZOyE

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 10, 2024

Roman Wilson - ADP WR72

I know. He’s a rookie receiver drafted by Pittsburgh. But the past young stars haven’t had to deal with Arthur Smith. Roman Wilson has an uphill battle in a run-heavy offense with Russell Wilson at the helm. 

Receivers simply aren’t meant to put up big numbers in this offense. In 2023, the Falcons were 29th in pass percentage, first in tight-end target share, and third in running-back target share. Not to mention, Russell Wilson checked the ball down far more than any quarterback in the NFL last season. 

In Smith’s Falcons offense, the WR2 ended the 2023 season with 251 receiving yards. If the rookie receiver is to succeed, it will be in the long term rather than the short term. There are better upside options late in best ball drafts.

Interesting look at offensive play-caller rankings from@PattonAnalytics.

My biggest Takeaway is pure confirmation bias:

Arthur Smith is not only the worst but twice as bad as the next closest 💀 pic.twitter.com/GOigwZ2X03

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) December 21, 2023

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