ADP Analysis: Overvalued Players to Avoid on Draft Day

February 25, 2014

Vasont Miller's analysis on 2014 ADP sleepers and undervalued fantasy baseball players for your fantasy drafts. These sleepers can help you win on draft day.

RotoBaller has been analyzing ADP data and trends to find these overvalued players who you should avoid on draft day.

Overvalued Players to Avoid on Draft Day

Alexander Guerrero ADP 215

This one is a layup. Check back to my Dodgers preview and you won't even need to hear Coletti and Mattingly's comments about the platoon possibility at 2B for the Dodgers in 2014 to know this is way, way... I just can't type "way" enough times to express how early this is for him to be picked. His ADP is presently higher than Neil Walker, Anthony Rendon and Kolten Wong, all of whom are assured of starting jobs. Yeah.

Jered Weaver ADP 120

Jered Weaver has been an inspiration, and even the inspiration for some of the pitching motions I have taught to young pitchers as an instructor. I love to watch him manipulate the baseball, weaving it in and out of traffic, and I am sure he will continue to get outs and put up his share of zeros on the scoreboard. But his reputation is causing people to pull the trigger a bit too soon as they seem to fear Weaver slipping down the draft board where he belongs, even though Matt Cain, Homer Bailey, Gerrit Cole, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jon Lester, Hiroki Kuroda, Andrew Cashner are all being drafted within 3 rounds after him.

In my eyes, this is the pivotal point in drafts to select the best of the bunch that you can get your hands on, and Weaver just is not the best of this bunch. And there is no way you can look yourself in the mirror and tell yourself that he is. He is still going to win some games, and he will be a guy the team rallies around, but gone are the days of the elite statistics with above average K-rates.  The improvement of the Mariners lineup is only going to make things harder on this fading ace who has seen his velocity take a drastic downturn over the last couple of seasons.  Weaver only threw 150 innings in 2013, and only 188 in 2012. In 2009-2011, his period of dominance, he threw at least 210 innings in each year.  That period is at a clear end.

Prince Fielder - ADP 12th overall

The potential for him to hit 50 home runs in that ballpark is causing owners to select him in Round 1, but the average is not good enough and he is not exactly in peak physical condition. The Texas heat is much different in the summer from Milwaukee and Detroit, and during the Rangers incredible run over the last five years, the players who have excelled for them are guys in prime physical condition such as Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. Players like Jose Abreu who could come close to matching Fielder's production can be had five rounds later at first base, as well as Joey Votto a round later, and the ever-popular Freddie Freeman two rounds later. You could also select Albert Pujols or Allen Craig three rounds later and hope for the best as far as health goes.

All of these players can match or exceed Fielder's production. It should be noted that Fielder has had a hard time hitting in big games when the pitchers really lock in, and the Rangers should be deadlocked in a pennant race down the stretch, so Fielder is going to have to prove he can hit in those situations, and I am not gonna bet on him getting it done. His current ADP is 12th overall, and if I am in that position, if I have to take a first baseman, I would select Joey Votto over Fielder.

Like the rest of us though, you'll probably take the best value available. I would probably lean towards Hanley Ramirez or Bryce Harper, but I am not planning on those guys being there at 12 anyhow. If they are, great--  I will make my pick before the time even starts. If not, I'm after Robinson Cano (AL West is very right-handed on the bump). Before you jump down my throat about Ryan Braun, or Joey Votto, or Jay Bruce go back and look at the starting pitchers and bullpen in the NL Central, then call me crazy. At least Votto and Bruce get to face the Brewers-- Braun, have fun with all those right handed grenade launchers in 2014. Those guys will still put up numbers, but I am going for monster stats and category dominance from my first rounder. Getting Cano out of the cold is going to be good for him, and his upside is still off the charts, much higher than Fielder in my opinion, but both obviously come with some risk.

Lastly, Adam Jones or Edwin Encarnacion may slide down there if, like I predict, Bryce Harper and maybe even Hanley Ramirez go a little high; you are free to take either of them here as well. I personally think Encarnacion is an absolute stud, capable of hitting a ball through an outfield wall if he catches it right, so yeah snag him up too.

As for Jones...

Adam Jones - ADP 9th overall

Jones is a really good player, and a joy to watch patrol the outfield. It has been a pleasant surprise watching him learn the strike zone and control his at bats over the last two years, as well. But does that mean he is worthy of being a first-round pick? Maybe, but not at ninth. Not when I can snag Shin-Shoo Choo three rounds later, or take a flier on Matt Kemp two to four rounds later and probably get similar production. The one guy I really think compares to Jones statistically who is going in the Kemp range is  Wil Myers. If you are looking for a safe .265-.285 with 25-35 HR and 70-100 RBI, then Myers is that guy, and that's what I have Jones pegged for. Myers BA may have a little bit higher upside than Jones, and he should come close to the 15 stolen bases that I have Jones down for. Also, he doesn't wear any batting gloves, which always steals my heart.

In all seriousness though, those players should be better values in 2014 based on their ADP than Jones would be at ninth, with Kemp coming with the biggest question marks, but a lot higher upside than any of the players mentioned in this section. So, who do you take with the ninth pick? Well if you can't go on with your everyday life unless you have Bryce Harper, then here is your only chance. I may or may not be in this category, get back to me in a couple of weeks on that. If not, then I probably am praying to the fantasy gods to let Clayton Kershaw drop so I don't have a tough decision, but if he doesn't drop? I am gonna squeeze one more elite year out of Adrian Beltre and clear up the third base problem before it starts. Cases can be made for Edwin Encarnacion, Jacoby Ellsbury and Hanley Ramirez here as well.