X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Analysis: Overvalued Players to Avoid on Draft Day

By Keith Allison [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

RotoBaller has been analyzing ADP data and trends to find these overvalued players who you should avoid on draft day.

 

Overvalued Players to Avoid on Draft Day

 

Alexander Guerrero ADP 215

This one is a layup. Check back to my Dodgers preview and you won't even need to hear Coletti and Mattingly's comments about the platoon possibility at 2B for the Dodgers in 2014 to know this is way, way... I just can't type "way" enough times to express how early this is for him to be picked. His ADP is presently higher than Neil Walker, Anthony Rendon and Kolten Wong, all of whom are assured of starting jobs. Yeah.

 

Jered Weaver ADP 120

By Keith Allison [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Jered Weaver has been an inspiration, and even the inspiration for some of the pitching motions I have taught to young pitchers as an instructor. I love to watch him manipulate the baseball, weaving it in and out of traffic, and I am sure he will continue to get outs and put up his share of zeros on the scoreboard. But his reputation is causing people to pull the trigger a bit too soon as they seem to fear Weaver slipping down the draft board where he belongs, even though Matt Cain, Homer Bailey, Gerrit Cole, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jon Lester, Hiroki Kuroda, Andrew Cashner are all being drafted within 3 rounds after him.

In my eyes, this is the pivotal point in drafts to select the best of the bunch that you can get your hands on, and Weaver just is not the best of this bunch. And there is no way you can look yourself in the mirror and tell yourself that he is. He is still going to win some games, and he will be a guy the team rallies around, but gone are the days of the elite statistics with above average K-rates.  The improvement of the Mariners lineup is only going to make things harder on this fading ace who has seen his velocity take a drastic downturn over the last couple of seasons.  Weaver only threw 150 innings in 2013, and only 188 in 2012. In 2009-2011, his period of dominance, he threw at least 210 innings in each year.  That period is at a clear end.

 

Prince Fielder - ADP 12th overall

The potential for him to hit 50 home runs in that ballpark is causing owners to select him in Round 1, but the average is not good enough and he is not exactly in peak physical condition. The Texas heat is much different in the summer from Milwaukee and Detroit, and during the Rangers incredible run over the last five years, the players who have excelled for them are guys in prime physical condition such as Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. Players like Jose Abreu who could come close to matching Fielder's production can be had five rounds later at first base, as well as Joey Votto a round later, and the ever-popular Freddie Freeman two rounds later. You could also select Albert Pujols or Allen Craig three rounds later and hope for the best as far as health goes.

All of these players can match or exceed Fielder's production. It should be noted that Fielder has had a hard time hitting in big games when the pitchers really lock in, and the Rangers should be deadlocked in a pennant race down the stretch, so Fielder is going to have to prove he can hit in those situations, and I am not gonna bet on him getting it done. His current ADP is 12th overall, and if I am in that position, if I have to take a first baseman, I would select Joey Votto over Fielder.

Like the rest of us though, you'll probably take the best value available. I would probably lean towards Hanley Ramirez or Bryce Harper, but I am not planning on those guys being there at 12 anyhow. If they are, great--  I will make my pick before the time even starts. If not, I'm after Robinson Cano (AL West is very right-handed on the bump). Before you jump down my throat about Ryan Braun, or Joey Votto, or Jay Bruce go back and look at the starting pitchers and bullpen in the NL Central, then call me crazy. At least Votto and Bruce get to face the Brewers-- Braun, have fun with all those right handed grenade launchers in 2014. Those guys will still put up numbers, but I am going for monster stats and category dominance from my first rounder. Getting Cano out of the cold is going to be good for him, and his upside is still off the charts, much higher than Fielder in my opinion, but both obviously come with some risk.

Lastly, Adam Jones or Edwin Encarnacion may slide down there if, like I predict, Bryce Harper and maybe even Hanley Ramirez go a little high; you are free to take either of them here as well. I personally think Encarnacion is an absolute stud, capable of hitting a ball through an outfield wall if he catches it right, so yeah snag him up too.

As for Jones...

 

Adam Jones - ADP 9th overall

Jones is a really good player, and a joy to watch patrol the outfield. It has been a pleasant surprise watching him learn the strike zone and control his at bats over the last two years, as well. But does that mean he is worthy of being a first-round pick? Maybe, but not at ninth. Not when I can snag Shin-Shoo Choo three rounds later, or take a flier on Matt Kemp two to four rounds later and probably get similar production. The one guy I really think compares to Jones statistically who is going in the Kemp range is  Wil Myers. If you are looking for a safe .265-.285 with 25-35 HR and 70-100 RBI, then Myers is that guy, and that's what I have Jones pegged for. Myers BA may have a little bit higher upside than Jones, and he should come close to the 15 stolen bases that I have Jones down for. Also, he doesn't wear any batting gloves, which always steals my heart.

In all seriousness though, those players should be better values in 2014 based on their ADP than Jones would be at ninth, with Kemp coming with the biggest question marks, but a lot higher upside than any of the players mentioned in this section. So, who do you take with the ninth pick? Well if you can't go on with your everyday life unless you have Bryce Harper, then here is your only chance. I may or may not be in this category, get back to me in a couple of weeks on that. If not, then I probably am praying to the fantasy gods to let Clayton Kershaw drop so I don't have a tough decision, but if he doesn't drop? I am gonna squeeze one more elite year out of Adrian Beltre and clear up the third base problem before it starts. Cases can be made for Edwin Encarnacion, Jacoby Ellsbury and Hanley Ramirez here as well.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel5 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray5 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele5 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons7 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler7 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson7 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele7 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle7 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans7 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic7 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney8 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith8 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen8 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara8 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele8 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes8 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson8 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic8 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar8 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton8 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert8 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones8 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji9 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey9 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee9 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards9 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani9 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson9 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo9 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley9 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque9 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez10 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler10 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel10 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley10 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal11 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes11 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis12 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer13 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw13 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler13 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager13 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz14 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds15 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano17 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad18 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov18 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto18 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin19 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard19 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins19 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist19 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear19 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen2 days ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers2 days ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR3 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen3 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb3 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More