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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/5/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We're back with another fresh set of NRFI bets and predictions here at RotoBaller. Monday brings us a rather sizeable 10-game slate from which to choose our wagers.
We don't have too many star pitchers on the mound today, but we do have at least four spots that I think are worth targeting for NRFIs tonight between strong pitching matchups and some weaker offenses who are trending in the wrong direction.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Monday, May 5, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the outcome of the entire game. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds when compared to YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 5, 2025)
- San Diego Padres at New York Yankees (7:05 pm)
- Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (7:40 pm)
- Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 pm)
- Seattle Mariners at Athletics (10:05 pm)
San Diego Padres at New York Yankees NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SDP: Nick Pivetta
- NYY: Carlos Rodon
This is the best pitching matchup on the slate tonight, in my opinion. While both pitchers will have their work cut out for them here against talented offenses, they also both come into this game in excellent recent form, too.
Carlos Rodon over his last 3 starts:
19 IP
0.95 ERA
24 K : 7 BBStarting to justify that contract…🤔
pic.twitter.com/Hd2VXuxCX3— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) April 30, 2025
Rodon has enjoyed a resurgence this season and is coming off arguably his best outing of the year against Baltimore. Pivetta is on pace for a career year in San Diego so far and is a perfect 6-0 on first-inning shutouts this season.
The Yankees are the offense that worries me the most here, as they've been the best team in the first inning this season, so it's strength vs. strength with Pivetta against this Bronx bomber lineup. Rodon gets a Padres offense that has been good overall on the season in the first inning (64% NRFI rate), but that has struggled lately with just a 2-8 YRFI record over their last ten.
Again, we are leaning on two very strong pitchers here to overcome more difficult matchups, but I want to underscore how good they have been in the first inning once more. Rodon has a first-inning WHIP of 0.86, and Pivetta's is 0.67. We could always fall victim to a first-inning home run, but that's a risk that I am willing to take.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CWS: Shane Smith
- KCR: Cole Ragans
This game may seem lopsided at first glance. The Royals are -245 home favorites against an inferior opponent with their ace, Cole Ragans, on the bump. Ragans is back in the rotation after leaving his last start early, hopefully it was just a minor tweak since Ragans didn't miss any time. Chicago has struggled against LHP this season, so Ragans's strikeout prop will be popular today, and the Royals will probably be a favorite among moneyline parlays, too.
But there is some danger here as Chicago has been playing much better of late, especially at the plate. They have a 4-6 YRFI record and the best first-inning batting average in MLB over their last ten games!
So it's not an automatic "gimme" for Ragans by any means. But I still have a lot of confidence in Ragans and his overall talent to win out in almost any matchup.
Smith had a rough first inning in his last start, but has been pretty stout this season with a 5-1 NRFI record across his six starts. He has a 2.23 ERA this year and has been the White Sox's most reliable starter.
While Kansas City's offense broke out against Baltimore yesterday, they still rank near the bottom of the league against RHP and have had their share of struggles in the first frame. With both teams' aces on the hill, I am banking on strong pitching here once again to overcome the recent surge from the opposing hitters.
Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- HOU: Ronel Blanco
- MIL: Tobias Myers
Here is where my angle has mainly to do with the ineptitude of these first-inning offenses. The Astros continue to have the best NRFI hit-rate at 85%, while the Brewers are not that far behind at 77% (sixth-best).
It certainly helps our chances that Blanco, despite seeing some overall regression on his ERA this season, has been lights out in the first frame, going 5-1 on NRFIs this season. Myers missed the start of the season, so he's made just two starts but is 1-1 on NRFIs.
The Astros' offense has been a disaster this season, and Yordan Alvarez is now battling an injury that has kept him out of the last two games. He's been slumping, too, but without him in the lineup there simply isn't a big bat to fear her for Myers.
This feels like the safest of all the NRFI bets today, despite featuring two pitchers who are not aces. The recent trends (Astros 9-1, Brewers 6-4) support the NRFI, too, though we should note that the Brewers' offense is at least trending in a more positive direction.
Seattle Mariners at Athletics NRFI (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SEA: Bryce Miller
- ATH: Luis Severino
This game is similar to the Yankees-Padres game in that I am going to be putting my faith in two pretty good pitchers to overcome some more difficult matchups. Let's start with Luis Severino, who has been rolling for the Athletics lately as he takes on a red-hot Mariners lineup.
Seattle has been a top-five first-inning offense, and they're trending up with a 5-5 YRFI record over their last ten. But they might be meeting an immovable object here in Sevvy, who has four straight first-inning shutouts, allowing just one hit over that entire span of starts.
Luis Severino, Ridiculous Sweeper. 😳
24 Inches of Horizontal Break.
That doesn't look real. pic.twitter.com/PmbXPeUx6V
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2025
The Athletics are more of a middling first-inning offense with a 71% NRFI rate on the season and a 3-7 YRFI record over their last ten. Bryce Miller, despite his control issues, has started games off well with a 5-1 NRFI record. Opposing offenses are hitting just .148 against Miller and he has yet to yield a first-inning home run.
These starters aren't quite of the ilk of Rodon and Pivetta, but both are very good pitchers and have been reliable early in games. I love the odds that we are getting here at -115, you just don't see odds that close to even money with such quality pitching that often.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Orioles (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: White Sox, Pirates, Red Sox (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Yankees (7)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: White Sox (.396)
Remember, MLB NRFI betting is about identifying pitchers in rhythm and offenses that start slow — two key factors in today’s featured games. Check lineups and weather before locking anything in, and stick with disciplined bankroll management. Whether you're new to NRFI or a seasoned bettor chasing another clean sweep, today’s picks are built on trends, matchups, and recent form that give you a sharp edge in the volatile first-inning market.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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