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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/9/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
There's nothing like a full slate of MLB action on a Friday night, and anytime we get a full 15-game slate, I like our chances of finding some NRFI bets with a good chance at chance at cashing at solid odds.
On Monday, I featured four games for NRFI bets, and we hit the first three of the night, only to lose the fourth one in the bottom of the first inning out in Seattle. But 3-1 is a solid night, and it continues our positive trend of hitting these bets at a relatively high rate. Today, I couldn't help myself, I couldn't trim the list any smaller than six NRFI bets!
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today for MLB games on Friday, May 9, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets today are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the outcome of the entire game. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds when compared to YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 9, 2025)
- Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (6:40 pm)
- Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 pm)
- Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (7:10 pm)
- Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox (7:40 pm)
- Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (8:10 pm)
- Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (9:40 pm)
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
- DET: Tarik Skubal
It's easy to see why we might expect a shutout in the first inning from Tarik Skubal, as he's been lights out lately and 6-1 overall this season on NRFIs. Texas is 20th against LHP in wRC+ this season and has scored just once in the first inning over their last ten games.
Tarik Skubal is back in Cy Young form, the BEST pitcher in baseball ‼️ pic.twitter.com/hCZhBUMbi7
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) May 8, 2025
But shouldn't Patrick Corbin against a surging Detroit offense make us nervous? Maybe, but I think it's worth the risk. Corbin has better than you think (4-1) in the first inning, and Detroit is just 2-8 on YRFIs over their last ten games.
If you believe in the "Coors Hangover," the theory that offenses can struggle to adjust to the amount of movement on breaking pitches after leaving Coors Field and returning to a more normal elevation, then we have that going for us, too, as the Tigers just finished beating up on the Rockies and are back home tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays NRFI (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Jose Quintana
- TBR: Zack Littell
This one feels like a hard sell as both pitchers have SIERAs over 4.00 and give up a lot of contact to opposing hitters. However, consider that Quintana is 4-1 and Littell is 5-2 on NRFIs this season, and remember that we don't need six shutout innings, just one. We just need three outs from each pitcher without surrendering a run. And the offenses involved matter just as much.
Speaking of those offenses, the Brewers have a 76% NRFI rate while the Rays are even worse at 78%. Tampa Bay has been abysmal this season against LHP, ranking 26th in MLB in wRC+. The Brewers are an average offense, but even while they are trending up, they still just have a 40% YRFI rate over their last ten games.
Betting on mediocre pitchers is dicey, but we are getting near even money here, and both offenses have been good teams to target. I like being aggressive here and going after a game that others might skip over just by looking at the names of the starting pitchers.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets NRFI (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CHC: Jameson Taillon
- NYM: Clay Holmes
Neither of these pitchers qualifies as an ace, but both Taillon and Holmes are having solid starts to their 2025 season. Holmes comes into this matchup with a 2.95 ERA, and Taillon is at a respectable 3.86. Taillon is an impressive 7-0 on NRFIs, while Holmes is 5-2.
Both offenses are pretty darn good, so when I dug into the first-inning stats, I was surprised to see that the Cubs were tied with the Mets for fourth-worst in first-inning scoring at a 76% NRFI rate. The recent offensive trends aren't good either, with the Cubs going 2-8 and the Mets just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last ten games.
Again, others might skip this game just because they fear these offenses, but I think it's fairly priced and that both pitchers are good enough to get the job done.
Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIA: Max Meyer
- CWS: Bryse Wilson
These two offenses are both terrible, especially against RHP. The Marlins have been trending up lately, but are still just 15th in wRC+ against righties while the White Sox are 25th in the league.
We have at least one very talented starter on the bump with the Marlins sending Max Meyer to the mound. Meyer has a first-inning WHIP of just 0.71 and a 5-2 NRFI record on the season. He has yielded YRFIs in each of his last two starts, but this feels like a great spot for him to get right against a bad White Sox team.
We have to hope that Bryse Wilson can get the job done for the White Sox, and he probably makes me more nervous than any other pitcher in the article. He is 2-0 on NRFIs in his two starts this season, but he also carries a 5.56 ERA into this game and is a guy whom I often stack against in DFS.
The positive trend for us with the Wilson-Miami matchup is that the Marlins are just 2-8 over their last 10 on YRFIs. It will probably be a sweat as I bet he allows a baserunner or two, but I'm rolling the dice on this risky pitcher to do his part tonight.
Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- CIN: Nick Martinez
- HOU: Hunter Brown
The Astros are a great team to target for NRFIs as they continue to lead the league with a ridiculous 86% NRFI rate on offense. It's a perfect storm today as they send their ace, Hunter Brown, to the mound as he's been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball so far.
The latest Pitcher Power Rankings are in! 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/nimLPzqFpb
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 8, 2025
Brown is 5-2 on NRFIs, and while he struggled with the White Sox in the first inning last game, that was the first time he had labored early since March. The Reds are in the middle of the pack regarding their first-inning offense (69%) NRFI rate, but I favor the ace Brown here in this matchup. Even if he doesn't strike out the top of the order hitters, he has a strong groundball rate and isn't likely to give up a first-inning home run.
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-140 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- TOR: Kevin Gausman
- SEA: Luis Castillo
Which version of Kevin Gausman will show up tonight? I hope it's the good one, because I like him in this matchup. While Gausman is 4-3 on NRFIs this season, he has gone 3-0 over his last three starts. Speaking of streaks, Luis Castillo is 7-0 this season on NRFIs and will need to bring his best stuff early as Toronto has a formidable lineup of their own.
Both offenses have been playing well of late, but these veteran pitchers have been good early, and I think it's another prime spot for an NRFI. The odds are a bit shorter than I'd like, but I can't resist the chance at getting one more late-night NRFI to cap off the slate!
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Orioles (10-0)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Athletics, Phillies (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Yankees (7)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Blue Jays (.381)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Mariners (.442)
Friday’s packed MLB slate gives us one of the best opportunities yet this season to dive into high-value NRFI betting. With a strong mix of pitching matchups, cold-starting offenses, and recent NRFI trends in our favor, today’s board is loaded with potential.
Whether you’re looking to lock in a few strategic picks or ride the full list, these NRFI bets today offer plenty of upside based on both form and data. As always, check lineups and weather before finalizing your MLB NRFI bets, and stick with the strategy that's been delivering results all season long. Let's keep this momentum rolling—here’s to another winning night of NRFI betting.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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