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NHL DFS Picks and Analysis for December 5, 2023 (Premium Content)

RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 5, 2023.

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

An eight-game slate on a Tuesday night? Yes, please! Lately, we’ve had Tuesday slates at least 50% larger than this, making it much more difficult to hone in on the stacks we want to use. Eight games is a perfect slate size, and the games are spread out nicely. There are usable teams throughout the night, including a couple of strong late-night hammers in Colorado and Minnesota. The value is spread nicely as well, with multiple third and fourth lines projecting well on the Heat Map. 

DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; five of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $20-entry Tuesday Twenty with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 142-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!

This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.

 

Top Three Stacks of the Night

New York Islanders (NYI1 - Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom, Noah Dobson) 

No team has a better matchup than the Islanders, as they face the San Jose Sharks. San Jose has been awful on the road, allowing 3.91 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play and allowing 14.68 high-danger shots per game. Even with regression, the Sharks would be terrible; Mackenzie Blackwood gives up 3.56 goals per game (4.12 on the road) and that’s better than the 3.70 goals per game he has been projected to allow. Like I said, the Sharks are bad. 

As this line is currently constructed it’s not all that appealing, but that could change if Mathew Barzal gets over his illness in time to play in this game. Barzal is white hot, having scored two goals and having assists over his last two games. He’s a far better player than Oliver Wahlstrom who only has two goals and three assists all season. Anders Lee and Bo Horvat can put up tournament-winning scores, as they’ve combined for seven double-digit fantasy scores in the last six games (four for Lee and three for Horvat). Noah Dobson is a must in any Islanders stack with his high SABS (shots and blocked shots) floor and his offensive skill on the power play. 

 

Colorado Avalanche (COL1 - Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin)

John Gibson, the Anaheim Ducks goalie, has been playing above his head for most of the year according to advanced data but regression is already starting to set in. He’s allowed three or more goals in five of his last seven starts after starting the year with eleven straight starts of three goals allowed or less. Anaheim has allowed over three goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play on the road this year, with an average of 12.63 high-danger chances surrendered per game. The defensive pairing we want to attack on the Ducks is Mintyukov/Lyubushkin, and they’ll be spending the majority of time on the ice with the Avalanche top line. 

That’s bad news for the Ducks, as the Avs have one of the most lethal duos in the league in Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon. Valeri Nichushkin isn’t too bad either, recording 12 points and averaging over three shots on goal per game over his last ten games. The Avs have scored a ridiculous 3.85 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home over their last ten games. Even with regression, they’d be looking at nearly three goals, which is a very high number. If Cale Makar plays he’s a must-grab for this stack, but if he’s out then this becomes an even more affordable line to play. 

 

Minnesota Wild (MIN1 - Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, Marco Rossi)

Some teams look like they have a better matchup than the Wild, but if you dig into this matchup you’ll see that no line is in a better position to dominate than Minnesota’s top line. They are in such a good spot because they should be spending most of their ice time against the defensive pairing of Gilbert/Oesterle for Calgary. They have played four games together as a pairing and their xGA/60 (expected goals allowed per 60 minutes) is 4.26 with an HDCA (high-danger chances allowed) of 22.43. Those are some of the highest numbers we’ve seen all year, and the Wild is a team that’s capable of taking advantage of that poor play. 

This trio is just starting to heat up; Kaprizov and Rossi have combined for six goals, ten assists, and 40 shots on goal per game over their last ten outings. Mats Zuccarello is in the midst of a nine-game point-scoring streak that’s seen him record multiple points three times with an average of three shots on goal per game. 

 

Others in consideration: LAK1, NYR1, DET2, BUF1, NSH1

 

Top Value Stack of the Night

San Jose Sharks (SJ2 - Anthony Duclair, Mikael Granlund, Fabian Zetterlund)

Don’t look now, but the Sharks are starting to heat up every so slightly. The team has now scored an average of 1.47 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play on the road, a number that is up nearly half a goal over the last handful of games. Advanced data shows that they should be over two goals, so there’s a lot of room to grow. Meanwhile, the Islanders are due for negative defensive regression. They are allowing over half a goal less per game than expected, and they have surrendered 12.8 high-danger shots per game at home this year. 

Mikael Granlund has scored 19 or more DraftKings points three times over his last five games, Anthony Duclair has scored 16 or more points in back-to-back games, and Fabian Zetterlund has scored 12 or more DraftKings points in four of his last six games. The combined cost of this stack is $11,300 (an average of just $3,766 per player). That’s incredible production for such a cheap stack, making them an ideal secondary team to a bigger stack like Colorado, Minnesota, or the Rangers. 

 

Others in consideration: OTT2, DET3, NSH3, MIN4

 

Top Goalies to Target

Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks)

Thatcher Demko has been incredible at home this season, averaging just shy of 20 DraftKings points per game. That’s twice as many points per game than he scores in road games. I’ve been waiting all year for regression to kick in, but thus far it just hasn’t. Demko is allowing nearly three-quarters of a goal fewer per game than the data suggests, but every time he holds an opponent to less than four goals (a feat he’s accomplished in 80% of his ten home starts) his high standard of play seems more and more legitimate. Demko also has one of the highest save percentages on unblocked shots on the slate, stopping 96% of those shots. 

New Jersey is a decent matchup, as they’ve struggled on the road. The Devils have scored only 1.79 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play away from home, a number 1.25 goals less than expected. Positive regression may come their way with Timo Meier and Jack Hughes back in the lineup, but they take so many shots that Demko can afford to let a couple in and still maintain a big fantasy score.

 

Others in consideration (GPP): Alex Lyon, Igor Sherterkin, Juuse Saros, Alexandar Georgiev

 

Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot

NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
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Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
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Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
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Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
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Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
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David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
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Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
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Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
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Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

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Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP