RADIO
The final two teams (Washington & Arizona) are taking their bye week, meaning we are in the home stretch of the NFL (and Pick 'Em) season. Just four weeks remain following this weekend's sale. It's time to make a move in Pick 'Em standings if you're falling behind. In winner-take-all groups, riskier selections can vault you back into contention. Playing it safe will keep those at the bottom of the standings in the cellar.
Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.
Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code SUMMER. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Week 14 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks
The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.
- 15 - Miami vs. Tennessee
- 14 - Houston at New York Jets
- 13 - New Orleans vs. Carolina
- 12 - San Francisco vs. Seattle
- 11 - Pittsburgh vs. New England
The Dolphins take the top spot in the pick 'em rankings for the second week in a row. This time, they host a miserable Tennessee offense that hasn't been able to put up big numbers away from Nashville. Similar cases can be made for Houston and New Orleans. Both are middle-of-the-pack in the standings but face teams at the bottom. New York will continue to struggle with possibly a fourth starting quarterback in Trevor Siemian. Carolina has no coach, no defense, and an inexperienced quarterback.
Pittsburgh also gets the benefit of a cupcake matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Patriots' roster is so devoid of talent that Amazon promoted the contest with an image of Bill Belichick. Even Mitch Trubisky can navigate the Steelers to a victory, which has a current over/under of 30. That would be the lowest in three decades.
Seattle has dropped four in a row to San Francisco and was overwhelmed in all three facets of the game just two weeks ago. That matchup happened in the Pacific Northwest. Now, they're in the Bay area.
Semi-Confident Picks For Week 14 Pick 'Em Pools
10 - Denver at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are three-point home favorites in this contest, but, frankly, I don't understand how they've earned those odds. They've only defeated the Patriots (and didn't score a touchdown) in their last four games. Austin Ekeler has seemingly hit the wall that every running back hits when they reach that age.
The weakness of the Denver defense is through the run, which Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, and the Chargers' offense currently can't do efficiently. With Patrick Surtain II covering Keenan Allen, Justin Herbert will have to rely more on Quentin Johnston, whose debut season has been the definition of a disaster.
The five-game win streak for the Broncos was finally snapped by Houston in Week 13, in what may have been Russell Wilson's worst game of the season. He tossed three interceptions, including the game-clinching turnover, and passed for under 200 yards (that part of the stat line isn't as much of a surprise). The Chargers are significantly worse than the Texans in the pass defense department and force fewer interceptions.
If you're looking to catch up in the standings, this is the upset to pick.
9 - Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Minshew Mania was on full display in Nashville.
The Colts' backup quarterback threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning strike to Michael Pittman Jr. in overtime, to secure their fourth straight victory. Those wins have come against teams with a combined 12 wins, so it's not the most impressive winning streak. But winning four straight in the NFL is no easy task, regardless of opponent.
Jake Browning may have been cooking on Monday Night Football, but I'm still not buying that this version of the Cincinnati Bengals is significantly better than the Buccaneers and Titans (the two best teams in Indianapolis' recent stretch).
Side note: The Colts wrap up their season with Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Houston. Start buying into Indianapolis being a playoff team.
8 - Detroit at Chicago
Both iterations of the Detroit Lions were on full display in New Orleans.
A combination of explosive offensive plays and turnovers contributed to a 21-0 lead before half of the first quarter had expired. Detroit took that lead into the second quarter and led 24-7 at halftime. Then, the Saints found the end zone twice and Detroit needed a late fourth-quarter stand against Jameis Winston to walk away victorious.
It's the inverse of what Detroit did against Chicago just a few weeks ago. The Lions slept through the beginning of the second half and needed their offensive outburst late (like 30 seconds remaining late) to avoid the upset to the Bears.
Inconsistency will eventually bite them in the butt, and that could happen during the postseason. It could even happen on Sunday in Chicago, but the safer bet is to ride with the superior team.
7 - Green Bay at New York Giants
Jordan Love was the truth, the next Hall of Fame quarterback in Green Bay's history, slinging touchdowns at a better rate than Aaron Rodgers.
Then he wasn't.
Now, he's even more comfortable in Matt LaFleur's offense. His young wide receivers, specifically Christian Watson (hamstring) and Jayden Reed, are blossoming. And they just defeated the defending Super Bowl Champions in primetime in December.
If the postseason began today, the Packers would be in, which is a wild statement considering the state of their franchise just a few weeks ago.
The New York Giants are opting to start undrafted rookie Tommy Devito over the now-recovered Tyrod Taylor (ribs) on Sunday. Whether DeVito or Taylor, it's a moot point. Neither is good enough to lead a subpar roster past one of the hottest teams in football.
6 - Baltimore vs. Los Angeles Rams
Speaking of teams currently on the rise, the Rams have also salvaged their season and put themselves in the playoff picture (they were the 7th seed before the Packers' victory on Sunday night). Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams are healthy, which opens the entire passing game for Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Kupp isn't predictably being funneled targets anymore (he may not be 100% healthy), which is giving the offense new life and the fifth-round rookie is shining.
However, a cross-country trip against one of the Super Bowl favorites is a formula that typically leads to a loss. The Ravens are coming off of a bye week. They're fresh, healthier, and are contending for the top seed in the AFC. They are touchdown favorites as of this writing, but John Harbaugh has been known to let winnable games slip away. That's why this game falls into the "semi-confident" category instead of the locks.
NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 14
5 - Minnesota at Las Vegas
Both of these teams come out of their bye week in similar, but vastly different situations. The Raiders are what they are this season. They won't be a playoff team, but interim coach Antonio Pierce has them competing at least. Their long-term questions are whether Pierce will be the head honcho moving forward, or if they will opt for an outside hire. Plus, they still need to figure out who their franchise quarterback is.
Similarly, the Vikings also have quarterback question marks, both this season and beyond. Joshua Dobbs is fresh off a four-interception performance and coach Kevin O'Connell noted that the team may revert to rookie Jaren Hall or journeyman backup Nick Mullens.
Unlike Las Vegas, the Vikings are in the mix for a Wild Card spot and their best player, Justin Jefferson, is back on the football field. Whoever is under center in Week 14 can just loft a few attempts up to one of the best receivers in the NFL. Walking away with a victory in these winnable games will go a long way in determining Minnesota's postseason fate.
4 - Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
Writing about the NFC South takes away all of the fun of writing about football.
At 6-6, Atlanta is the "best" team in the division, with a game and current tiebreakers over 5-7 Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Incredibly, if the Buccaneers win on Sunday, they'll split the season series and own the same division and overall record as Atlanta. This is gross. One of these teams is probably going to host Dallas or Philadelphia for a playoff game.
The Tampa Bay secondary is still as leaky as they come. Even rookie Jonathan Mingo set a career-high in targets, catches, and yards, and he plays for Carolina. Drake London should bounce back from his (predictable) disappearing act against the Jets. The question mark, as it has been all season, is whether Desmond Ridder can actually connect with the talented first-round pick.
If Tampa Bay linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White remain out in Week 14, Atlanta will be able to run the football with ease. If they're back, Ridder and the passing game will need to step up.
3 - Jacksonville at Cleveland
Another AFC favorite, the Jacksonville Jaguars, did control their destiny for home-field advantage through the conference playoffs, but then they dropped a game to the drowning Cincinnati Bengals.
Trevor Lawrence has been the electric quarterback that everyone thought he would be since being blown out by the San Francisco 49ers. And then the injury happened. The former first-round pick couldn't put any weight on his ankle as he was helped off of the field in the fourth quarter on Monday night. If early signs are any indication, veteran C.J. Beathard seems to be in line for the start on Sunday.
The Browns survived for as long as they could without their starting quarterback and running back. But the injuries are piling up and winnable games are slipping through the cracks. The cursed franchise may find themselves outside of the playoff picture soon.
2 - Kansas City vs. Buffalo
There are ample reasons to be concerned about the chances of a Super Bowl repeat for the Kansas City Chiefs. Their red zone touchdown rate is worse than the Bears and Cardinals. Travis Kelce isn't putting up his standard numbers because opposing defenses have no other receiving threats to worry about. Rashee Rice is a fine prospect, but Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are not good.
The Buffalo Bills are currently outside of the playoff race. The Cincinnati Bengals lost Joe Burrow and are out. What happened to all of the AFC favorites?
It's a do-or-die game for Buffalo as they have a date with Dallas following their tilt with Kansas City. They'll give the Chiefs everything they have, but we've also seen everything they have before in playoff matchups, and against Philadelphia, and it wasn't enough. The Chiefs' defense will prove that their showing at Lambeau Field was an anomaly, forcing Josh Allen into enough turnovers to add another number to their winning column.
1 - Dallas vs. Philadelphia
"This is likely a situation where the home team wins in the two matchups this season. Siri, remind me that I wrote this and to pick the Cowboys in Week 14."
That's what I wrote ahead of the Eagles and Cowboys matchup in Week 9 and nothing has happened since to change my mind. Dallas still hasn't lost a home game (14 straight, second-longest in Cowboys' history) and was possibly a foot away, on multiple occasions, from beating the Eagles in Philadelphia.
The NFL schedule is presenting Philadelphia with disadvantages in back-to-back weeks. San Francisco got extra time to prepare for the defending NFC Champions. Dallas has that same benefit, playing on Thursday for the last two weeks. With extra rest and home-field advantage, the Cowboys split the season series with their division rival.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
