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On paper, the game sounds simple. Pick the winner of each NFL game, and if you get it right, you get points. But just like a Rubik’s Cube, it can be far more complicated than it appears. This is your strategy guide to NFL Pick'em leagues, pools and challenges.
Most platforms allow you to choose straight-up wins as an option, but you can add wrinkles, like picking against the spread or ranking games with a confidence level. Your strategy should also change if you’re in a smaller office or family pool, versus a public group hosting a stadium’s worth of NFL fans.
Making the picks that give you the best chance to win a pool requires extensive research, data and math. So, every week during the 2023 season, RotoBaller will do the work for you and share the picks. While we wait patiently for the season to begin, here are some tips to think about.
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Know The Rules for Pick'em Leagues
This should go without saying, but often NFL pick 'em pools participants don’t even rank their selections. They fall behind in the standings, only earning the default one point for selecting the heavy favorite on Monday Night Football.
You may also be rewarded more for picking the upset that nobody saw coming. A different approach is warranted if you’re picking games against the spread (ATS) or straight up (SU). Depending on the settings, making a lot of risky picks may be the ideal way to tackle your approach. It could also make sense to play it safe, at least to start the season. Please, before you start, know the rules better than the NFL knows what is or is not a catch.
Pick 'Em Pool Size and Prize Structure
When you play fantasy football, the goal is to walk away with the championship. You may win back some cash by placing second, or even third, but nobody remembers the runner-ups years down the road.
The same applies to NFL pick ‘em pools. Don’t play for sixth place. Go for the crown or go for broke, especially if your pool only pays out for winning. If you’re in a big group that pays out some for finishing in the top half or top ten, taking a more conservative approach may be the best strategy.
The size of the pick 'em pool makes a dramatic difference. The bigger the pool, the bigger the risk.
With hundreds or thousands of participants making selections, the odds are higher than a handful of people are selecting the same upset pick. Finding and picking a marginal underdog will help you jump up in the standings. The strategy will fail more often than not, but you’re going to have to take those gambles to have a shot at the title.
Playing in a smaller group, like a work league, allows you to play it safer. You’re entering the season with much higher odds of sitting atop the leaderboard. Select just a couple upsets weekly, and hope that you’re in the mix in the back third of the NFL season.
Understand The Spread And Odds
When playing with point spreads, pay close attention to line movements. A key injury, weather conditions, or even a majority of money being placed on one side of the bet can shift the line.
Paying attention to the popularity of the pick and line movement is crucial. A -3.5 point favorite may not be appealing, but when that line shifts to -5, you may be more eager to pick the favorite. As of 2022, oddsmakers generally give NFL home teams about -1.5 points on the spread.
Since 2010, home teams have won their game over 56% of the time. When in doubt and picking without the spread, the home team is the selection to make.
“We’re In The End Game Now”
Trying to predict your path to victory isn’t easy, but you can read the room. You may only have a one in 14 million chance, just like Doctor Strange and the Avengers, or you can be in second place in Week 17, just points off the lead. Your risk-taking should increase if you’re trailing and the season is winding down.
Assuming your opponent is also playing to win, they’re likely to stick with the favorites to try to hold on to the lead. The only way to catch up is to correctly select underdogs.
If you’re down by several points, start swinging for the fences on every pick. If you’re only down one or two, play it a little more cautiously, and hope your upsets come through. Your approach may be more conservative if, as stated above, your pool rewards prizes for more than just the winner.
Get Ready For NFL Pick 'Em Week 1
Week 1 can be the toughest week of the season to predict. We won’t have a lot of information to go off of, as new teams begin their 2023 campaigns, but we’ll have picks and insight every week. Be sure to keep checking back with RotoBaller all season long for player news, picks and advice.
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