RADIO
Welcome to the Week 13 Sunday main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Sunday main slate and I hunt for value that might be site-specific on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
There are only two teams on bye in Week 13, giving us a robust 12-game selection on the Sunday main slate. That's a best-case scenario for hunting out value at each position, including a few site-specific selections in addition to our standard suggestions.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Mike White, NYJ at MIN | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $27
White will undoubtedly be a DFS darling this week after his stirring Week 12 performance, but at these salaries and in this matchup, the attention is warranted and not just a case of point-chasing. The second-year signal-caller threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears, netting 27.8 DK/24.8 FD and Yahoo points in the process. Naturally, it's not the first time White puts together a lights-out performance despite a very small career sample, as he'd also 29.1 DK/24.1 FD and Yahoo points against the Bengals in a Week 8 start last season that saw him exceed 400 yards.
The Vikings have allowed 277.5 passing yards per home game, along with a 70.6 percent completion rate in that split. Minnesota has also given up a robust 11.0 yards per completion at U.S. Bank Stadium, while White averaged 11.3 yards per attempt in the win over the Bears. With a cadre of impressively explosive receivers at his disposal and capable pass-catching backs as well even if Michael Carter (ankle) sits out, White is in play at his reasonable salaries, especially on DK.
Jared Goff, DET vs. JAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $24
Goff has averaged 21.6 DK/20.5 FD/19.6 Yahoo points per home game this season, impressive figures made possible by his 243.8 passing yards per game and 15:3 TD:INT at Ford Field across six games. The veteran quarterback comes into the Week 13 interconference clash with a three-game interception-less streak, and after a poor start to the season efficiency-wise, he's bounced back to impressively complete 68.0 percent of his passes over his last six contests. Goff now draws a matchup against a Jaguars defense that has some drastic home/road splits and that's particularly had trouble defending the pass when traveling.
Jacksonville is surrendering the second-most passing yards per road game (288.7), along with a 65.8 percent completion rate in that split that's nearly eight points higher than the 57.9 percent figure they allow at home. The Jags are also allowing 11.2 yards per completion when traveling, while Goff has recorded completions of at least 20 yards on 40 occasions in 11 games (39 in 14 games last season), including five of 40 or more. The Lions are implied for over 25 points in this matchup, and Goff and his pass catchers figure to play a significant role if that number is approximated, especially with Jacksonville funneling action toward the air by giving up just 103.7 rushing yards per contest.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIA | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $29
DK-only Special: Trevor Lawrence, JAC at DET | $5,900
Running Back DFS Value Plays
David Montgomery, CHI vs. GB | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $20
Montgomery should continue to receive the lion's share of the Bears running back touches with Khalil Herbert (hip) on injured reserve, and he'll draw an ideal set of circumstances in Week 13. D-Mont will face a Packers team that he already compiled 18.6 DK/14.6 FD and Yahoo points against back in Week 2 this season at Lambeau Field, and he'll apparently be doing so with the threat of Justin Fields available to keep the Green Bay defense honest. Montgomery has gotten plenty of work, including through the air, frequently when Fields has been available, and the cold weather environment should only encourage more running from a Bears squad that's already clocking the second-highest rush play percentage (60.0) of any team on its home field.
The Packers have been a sieve against the run all season and are allowing 154.9 rushing yards per road game after Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders combined to trample them for 300 rushing yards and two rushing TDs (Sanders) in Week 12. While Hurts' massive figure naturally influences Green Bay's total average rush yards allowed to a degree, it's worth noting the Pack has given up the second-most rushing yards to RBs (1,525) and yielded 5.1 RB yards per carry. What's more, they're ranked No. 32, No. 28 and No. 21 in Stuffed, Second-Level and Open-Field yards allowed, respectively, per Football Outsiders, and the Pack has conceded 12 red-zone rushing TDs while Montgomery has logged 27 red-zone carries in 11 games.
Brian Robinson, WAS at NYG | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $21
Robinson may typically need plenty of volume to deliver on his salaries, but he still requires a modest investment across all three sites despite his 18-carry, 105-yard performance against the Falcons in Week 12 that netted 23.5 DK/19.5 FD and Yahoo points. Robinson also posted 14.6 fantasy points across all three sites three games ago in the big upset win over the Eagles, and although Antonio Gibson will also get his share of touches against a Giants defense that's been much easier to run on than pass against, Robinson has a robust red-zone role that's generating an average of two touches inside the opponent's 20-yard line per game, and also just scored a receiving touchdown in Week 12.
The Giants have given up 157.2 rushing yards per home game, along with an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry in that split. Conversely, New York is conceding just 190.8 passing yards per home contest at an NFL-low 57.6 percent completion rate, which certainly encourages team to take to the ground against them whenever game script allows. The G-Men have allowed an NFC-high 5.2 RB yards per carry overall and rank No. 30, No. 24 and No. 31 in Stuffed, Second-Level and Open-Field Yards, respectively; meanwhile, Robinson is gaining 67% of his yards after first contact, is logging a touch on 62% of his snaps and has 16 red-zone carries through eight games, the latter figure particularly relevant when considering NY is giving up a co-NFL-high 4.2 red-zone scoring attempts per home game.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Zonovan Knight, NYJ at MIN | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $15
DK/Yahoo Specials: Aaron Jones, GB at CHI | DK: $6,900, Yahoo: $25; Travis Etienne, JAC at DET | DK: $6,400, Yahoo: $25
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. MIA | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20
Aiyuk continues to be one of the Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite targets in the 49ers' weapon-rich offense, and he checks into Sunday's interconference showdown having drawn between six and 11 looks in the passing game in five of the last six games. The talented third-year wideout is now averaging more than a red-zone target per game as well, and with the Niners projected for over 25 points as of Thursday afternoon, he becomes an excellent value consideration versus a beatable Dolphins secondary, especially with fellow receiver Deebo Samuel (quadriceps) potentially heading toward an absence.
Miami is giving up 12.0 yards per catch to wideouts and 247.2 passing yards per road game, along with a 68.0 percent completion rate in that split. The Dolphins also surrender an NFL-high 12.4 yards per completion when traveling, and Aiyuk is averaging 12.8 yards per grab on a career-best 69.0 percent catch rate. Miami has also conceded the fourth-highest red-zone TD percentage in the league (67.6), including 14 scores through the air inside the 20-yard line. With Aiyuk already enjoying a significant presence in that part of the field and San Fran projected for over 25 points, the third-year wideout is a highly viable consideration.
Joshua Palmer, LAC at LVR | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $17
Palmer is sporting career highs in receptions (50), receiving yards (552) and targets (75) through 10 games, partly the byproduct of the cumulative amount of games missed by both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Allen is back in the fold, but Williams (ankle) appears to be trending toward another absence for this critical divisional clash, putting Palmer firmly in play at his still-modest salaries. The second-year wideout will come into the contest having posted a solid 33-369-2 line over his last five games with the help of a pair of 106-yard efforts, numbers that have netted an average of 17.6 DK/13.1 FD and Yahoo points per contest.
The Raiders have given up a very elevated 70.8 percent catch rate to receivers, along with 253 passing yards per game. Las Vegas has also been highly targetable through the air in the red zone, giving up 14 passing touchdowns in that part of the field. Palmer has started to develop more of a presence inside the 20 the more he plays -- he has five RZ targets in the last six games -- and the Raiders are conceding the second-highest red-zone TD percentage (69.4) overall. The Bolts are projected for well over three touchdowns and Palmer is in line for another starting assignment, giving him plenty of appeal at his salaries.
George Pickens, PIT at ATL | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $21
Pickens has been flashing big-play upside since the preseason, and he'll enter a favorable matchup against the generous Falcons secondary having drawn at least six targets in seven of the last nine games. Kenny Pickett's ongoing development under center still makes Pickens a bit of a wild card in terms of his week-to-week production, but the rookie wideout has encouragingly logged at least 50 snaps in seven straight games while scoring both of his two NFL touchdowns in the last five contests. Pickens also has a robust 14.5-yard aDOT, giving him a nice ceiling against a defense that's had trouble slowing down chunk plays through the air.
The Falcons have allowed the second-most receiver yards (2,140), along with the third-most receiver touchdowns (13). Atlanta has conceded an elevated 12.7 yards per catch to wideouts as well, and they're tied with several teams for the fourth-most passing touchdowns in the red zone surrendered (14). In turn, Pickens is drawing 28% of the Steelers' air yards and has impressively parlayed 11 of his first 36 NFL catches into gains of 20 or more yards. While Pittsburgh might still focus heavily on trying to establish the run game, Pickens needs only a couple of sizable catches and/or a score to justify his modest salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Garrett Wilson, NYJ at MIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $18
DK/Yahoo Special:
Christian Kirk, JAC at DET | DK: $6,300, Yahoo: $21
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF vs. MIA | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $21
Kittle continues to be value-priced across all three sites and could be in for one of his higher-percentile performances against a Dolphins team whose linebackers and safeties have struggled with covering tight ends all season. The multi-time Pro Bowler isn't having his most prolific season in terms of raw numbers, but Kittle still has three tallies of greater than 80 yards, seven receptions of 20 yards or more across his 36 catches and an average of just under a red-zone target per contest.
Kittle also draws appeal from the large 49ers implied team total discussed in Aiyuk's entry, as well as the fact San Fran is down one offensive weapon in Elijah Mitchell (knee) and could also be without Samuel. Then, the Dolphins have given up the second-most receptions (69), third-most receiving yards (643) and third-most TDs (seven) to tight ends. Those figures have led to Miami conceding the third-most DK (16.4) and FD (12.9) points per game to the position, and Miami also comes in tied for fourth-most passing TDs allowed in the red zone (14).
Gerald Everett, LAC at LVR | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $18
Everett has been a value target at tight end all season after proving a good fit in the Chargers offense from Day 1, beginning with a 3-54-1 line back in the opener against this same Raiders team he'll face Sunday. Everett did draw just 36 snaps in the Week 12 win over the Cardinals -- his lowest tally in a non-injury-shortened game this season -- but he was returning from a one-game absence due to a groin injury. Everett could be back to a more normal workload Sunday in what could be a wild back-and-forth affair in which both teams are projected for well over three touchdowns.
The Raiders have surrendered a 55-554-6 line to tight ends, and an NFL-high 71.6 percent completion rate overall. Additionally, Everett has averaged just over a red-zone target per game (11 in 10 contests), which also makes him a good candidate at his salaries based on the vulnerabilities the Raiders have shown against the pass down near the end zone that were detailed in Palmer's entry.
ALSO CONSIDER:
Pat Freiermuth, PIT at ATL | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18
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