Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


NFL DFS Prop Picks for Week 15 (12/15/19) - Monkey Knife Fight

Week 15 in the National Football League brings some critical games with postseason implications and then some games involving teams playing out the string that can still have some appeal for fantasy purposes.

There are three games with double-digit favorites (Kansas City vs. Denver, New England at Cincinnati, and San Francisco vs. Atlanta) and six with a point spread of three points or less.

For some teams, the grind of the season is taking a toll and they are running out of experienced players in some spots. Remember Philadelphia’s receiving corps on Monday night? Well, they aren’t the only ones limping towards the finish and that needs to be taken into account when forecasting quarterback production.

Here are some angles to consider when making your Week 15 Star Shootout prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.

Editor's Note: Here's a great special offer for all RotoBaller readers from our Monkey Knife Fight friends: New AND Existing Player Bonus. All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'. Sign up and deposit, and use our prop picks to get off on a winning foot! 



View Contest


Jameis Winston OVER 309.5 PASSING YARDS – For all of the flaws in Winston’s game, he has been enormously productive when it comes to passing yards, averaging 316.5 passing yards per game. The Lions are allowing 276.5 passing yards per game which is the third-highest average in the league, and Winston has thrown for at least 310 yards in five of the past six games, so the signs are there for a Winston cover even on this very high number. The one notable concern may be that star wide receiver Mike Evans is injured so Winston will have to find other targets beyond Chris Godwin if he’s going to throw for 300-plus.

Patrick Mahomes UNDER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – Although he threw for 283 yards last week, the Kansas City quarterback had thrown for less than 280 yards in four of his previous five games (one of which he left early due to injury). The Broncos Defense has allowed 215.9 passing yards per game, and 6.9 yards per attempt, which is above average in terms of pass defense.

Deshaun Watson OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – Watson has ups and downs when it comes to passing yardage, putting up 263.5 yards per game this season and he has thrown for more than 270 yards in seven of 13 games. The Titans Defense is allowing 259.9 passing yards per game, the eighth-highest mark in the league, while 7.3 yards per pass attempt is hovering around league average. None of this brings an overwhelming result but the Texans are expecting to get deep threat Will Fuller back in the lineup and that is enough to tilt the pick towards the over.

Tom Brady UNDER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – Brady has thrown for 259 yards or fewer in five of the past seven games and it doesn’t seem like he enough faith in any of his receivers beyond Julian Edelman. Brady leads the league with 522 pass attempts but his 6.6 passing yards per attempt is his lowest since 2002, when football was an entirely different game. The Bengals Defense is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, the third-highest rate in the league, but if the Patriots get out to a lead they also won’t need Brady to throw all that often.


Christian McCaffrey +1.5 receptions vs. DeAndre Hopkins – After a bit of a slow start to the season, Hopkins is averaging 7.8 receptions per game in the past eight contests. McCaffrey went through a lean period in the middle of the season but has 38 receptions in the past four games (9.5 per game!) and that makes it easier to like the underdog in this matchup.

Derrick Henry -5.5 rushing yards vs. Chris Carson – Henry is on another late-season roll, with four straight games over 100 yards rushing and he faces a Texans team that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 109.5 rushing yards per game. Carson has had a fine season in his own right, with 1057 rushing yards and five 100-yard rushing games, but he has rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five of the past seven games. The big advantage for Carson is that he faces a Carolina defense that is abysmal against the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry and 139.2 rushing yards per game. It’s close, but I’m riding with red-hot Derrick Henry this week.

DeAndre Hopkins +3.5 receiving yards vs. Chris Godwin – This is a close matchup, even though Hopkins is averaging 78.2 yards per game while Godwin has 93.2 receiving yards per game. Godwin’s average is inflated by some huge performances, going for more than 150 yards three times, but he’s been held under 100 yards in five of the past seven games. He may see more targets with Mike Evans injured but it may not be enough to hold off Hopkins, who is the number one target virtually every week for the Texans.



View Contest


Dak Prescott OVER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams have a strong pass defense, allowing 221.2 passing yards per game and 6.6 passing yards per attempt, both ranking among the Top 10 teams in each category, and they face a Cowboys team that has struggled, yet has a quarterback who has thrown for more than 330 yards in four of the past five games.

Baker Mayfield OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – This season has not gone in Baker’s favor, and he has been held under 270 yards in four of the past five games, but if he’s going to have a productive passing game, this is the week for it. The Cardinals are allowing a league-high 294.2 passing yards per game and league-high 9.2 passing yards per attempt.

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – The 49ers may not need to throw a whole lot in order to beat the Atlanta Falcons but, if they do, the Falcons are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt but Jimmy G has thrown for more than 270 yards five times in 13 games.

Jared Goff UNDER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – There have been ups and downs to Goff’s season but he is averaging 285.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 266 yards in eight of 13 games. The Cowboys, however, do have a solid enough pass defense, allowing 216.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per attempt, both of which are above average and enough to nudge Goff towards the under.


Jarvis Landry +0.5 receptions vs. Julio Jones – Jones has the higher ceiling but the opposition is what makes this pick. Jones is facing the 49ers, who may have the best pass defense in the league, while Landry faces the Cardinals, who might have the worst. That discrepancy is enough to at least like Landry as the underdog.

Nick Chubb -1.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott – Chubb is averaging a league-leading 98.5 rushing yards per game, and while Zeke is good, he’s averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game and hasn’t reached 100 rushing yards in five straight games.

Amari Cooper +7.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones – Another pick driven by the 49ers Defense going against Julio Jones but that’s only part of it. The other part is that Amari Cooper is much more productive at home, averaging 126.3 receiving yards per game in Dallas this season.


More Weekly DFS Analysis

More Recent Articles


Biggest Surprises of 2019: Running Back

The 2019 NFL season was an interesting year for the running back position. Christian McCaffrey was the overall RB1, but some of the other top players fell below expectations. That led to some interesting final results when the final season standings came around. And while some of those -- Dalvin Cook as the RB3, Leonard... Read More

Quarterback VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The 2019 fantasy football season is over. That is not something we like to say considering the empty path we have ahead of us until we reach draft season again in eight months. The good thing about it, though, is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few weeks... Read More

2019 RotoBaller NFL Challenge - And The @Fleaflicker Winner Is...

What a season, RotoBallers. Fantasy football is always a fun, interesting, and long season - filled with injuries, breakout players, and different strategies. It takes stamina and endurance to win the marathon, and we're here today to recognize those who pulled it off. With 343 teams - across two divisions - competing to be crowned champ... Read More

Introducing the 2020 Rookie Tight End Class

Out of all the skill positions, tight end is the one where rookies have the most issue making an immediate impact. But there's still always some value at every position in every NFL Draft, and the 2020 one is no exception, even if people are very down on this year's crop of tight ends. Let's... Read More

Can a New Coach Fix Baker Mayfield in 2020?

Another season has passed and another disappointment by Browns fans has been realized. Baker Mayfield got the head coach he wanted in Freddie Kitchens in 2019. In 2020, hopefully he's got the one he needs in Kevin Stefanski. Last season, under Kitchens, Mayfield had a coach he could control and manipulate. He did just that... Read More

Wide Receiver VOS (Values Over Starter): 2019 Season In Context

The one (and only) good thing about fantasy football season ending is that we have plenty of time to analyze what happened during the past few months and put performances into context to prepare for next season. As football is an ever-evolving game, though, it makes sense to assess how good players were in fantasy... Read More

The King's Keeper Corner: NFL Postseason Impacts on Player Outlooks

With a break in the postseason NFL action, it is time to reflect on what we have seen in the playoffs so far and how certain performances will affect fantasy football outlooks in keeper and dynasty formats. How players respond and what they deliver at the most intense and critical times of the season can... Read More

Introducing Value Over Starter Football Metrics

When it comes to fantasy sports, we're always looking for the highest possible Return On Investment or ROI. This concept is easy to understand: in both Daily Fantasy and re-draft/fantasy leagues, ROI would come down to how many points a player returns relative to his salary, or the price you paid (given his ADP on... Read More

Biggest Breakouts of 2019: Quarterback

2019 was a very interesting season of fantasy football, to say the least. It's safe to say no one was banking on the season that we saw from Lamar Jackson but he wasn't the only one to stand out. At the quarterback position, we saw some really exciting players start to shine and some older... Read More

Goodbye Runners, Hello Pass-Catching RBs: 2019 Season Trends

As the 2019 summer kept going we all had two things in our minds with regard to September's fantasy drafts and both of them were related to running backs: Where in the world are Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and when will they be back? It made sense back then (and it still does now,... Read More

Where Does 2019 Rank Historically Among ADP Movers?

I have worked on a season-review series of articles in which I have analyzed the biggest winners and losers in terms of ADP entering draft season compared to the end of the year final results. It was plenty of fun looking back at the gambles most of us took which ultimately paid off, but also... Read More

Biggest Busts of 2019: Tight End

2019 was not the record-breaking season for tight ends 2018 was. San Francisco’s George Kittle (most receiving yards for a TE in a season) and Philadelphia’s Zach Ertz (most receptions for a TE in a season) did not break the records they set last season, although both were fine for fantasy players. Kansas City’s Travis... Read More

Rushing Quarterbacks Are Becoming Necessary

The 2019 fantasy season is over. We are all thinking about what to do come 2020 draft day. So let me ask you something. What if I offer you the chance of drafting a quarterback who is a lock to finish the season with 270 fantasy points? Would you take him and make him your... Read More

Biggest Breakouts Of 2019: Wide Receivers

As we enter the initial phase of offseason activities you have recently completed a painstaking process of creating and managing rosters, with the goal of winning fantasy championships in 2019. Now, many of you have already shifted your focus toward planning your drafts in Best Ball and redraft leagues, while others are contemplating how you... Read More

Tight End ADP Winners and Losers: 2019 Season Review

I've always believed that it is easier to lose a fantasy championship than to win it on draft day. It makes sense, as sure-fire players are expected to reward their owners with a lower risk-factor than the other way around and thus they're always drafter earlier. If they put up a season-long dud, though, you'll... Read More