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Scott Cullen provides his Week 15 NFL DFS prop picks for December 15th, 2019 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy football advice.
Week 15 in the National Football League brings some critical games with postseason implications and then some games involving teams playing out the string that can still have some appeal for fantasy purposes.
There are three games with double-digit favorites (Kansas City vs. Denver, New England at Cincinnati, and San Francisco vs. Atlanta) and six with a point spread of three points or less.
For some teams, the grind of the season is taking a toll and they are running out of experienced players in some spots. Remember Philadelphia’s receiving corps on Monday night? Well, they aren’t the only ones limping towards the finish and that needs to be taken into account when forecasting quarterback production.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Jameis Winston OVER 309.5 PASSING YARDS – For all of the flaws in Winston’s game, he has been enormously productive when it comes to passing yards, averaging 316.5 passing yards per game. The Lions are allowing 276.5 passing yards per game which is the third-highest average in the league, and Winston has thrown for at least 310 yards in five of the past six games, so the signs are there for a Winston cover even on this very high number. The one notable concern may be that star wide receiver Mike Evans is injured so Winston will have to find other targets beyond Chris Godwin if he’s going to throw for 300-plus.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – Although he threw for 283 yards last week, the Kansas City quarterback had thrown for less than 280 yards in four of his previous five games (one of which he left early due to injury). The Broncos Defense has allowed 215.9 passing yards per game, and 6.9 yards per attempt, which is above average in terms of pass defense.
Deshaun Watson OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – Watson has ups and downs when it comes to passing yardage, putting up 263.5 yards per game this season and he has thrown for more than 270 yards in seven of 13 games. The Titans Defense is allowing 259.9 passing yards per game, the eighth-highest mark in the league, while 7.3 yards per pass attempt is hovering around league average. None of this brings an overwhelming result but the Texans are expecting to get deep threat Will Fuller back in the lineup and that is enough to tilt the pick towards the over.
Tom Brady UNDER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – Brady has thrown for 259 yards or fewer in five of the past seven games and it doesn’t seem like he enough faith in any of his receivers beyond Julian Edelman. Brady leads the league with 522 pass attempts but his 6.6 passing yards per attempt is his lowest since 2002, when football was an entirely different game. The Bengals Defense is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, the third-highest rate in the league, but if the Patriots get out to a lead they also won’t need Brady to throw all that often.
RAPID FIRE
Christian McCaffrey +1.5 receptions vs. DeAndre Hopkins – After a bit of a slow start to the season, Hopkins is averaging 7.8 receptions per game in the past eight contests. McCaffrey went through a lean period in the middle of the season but has 38 receptions in the past four games (9.5 per game!) and that makes it easier to like the underdog in this matchup.
Derrick Henry -5.5 rushing yards vs. Chris Carson – Henry is on another late-season roll, with four straight games over 100 yards rushing and he faces a Texans team that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 109.5 rushing yards per game. Carson has had a fine season in his own right, with 1057 rushing yards and five 100-yard rushing games, but he has rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five of the past seven games. The big advantage for Carson is that he faces a Carolina defense that is abysmal against the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry and 139.2 rushing yards per game. It’s close, but I’m riding with red-hot Derrick Henry this week.
DeAndre Hopkins +3.5 receiving yards vs. Chris Godwin – This is a close matchup, even though Hopkins is averaging 78.2 yards per game while Godwin has 93.2 receiving yards per game. Godwin’s average is inflated by some huge performances, going for more than 150 yards three times, but he’s been held under 100 yards in five of the past seven games. He may see more targets with Mike Evans injured but it may not be enough to hold off Hopkins, who is the number one target virtually every week for the Texans.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Dak Prescott OVER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams have a strong pass defense, allowing 221.2 passing yards per game and 6.6 passing yards per attempt, both ranking among the Top 10 teams in each category, and they face a Cowboys team that has struggled, yet has a quarterback who has thrown for more than 330 yards in four of the past five games.
Baker Mayfield OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – This season has not gone in Baker’s favor, and he has been held under 270 yards in four of the past five games, but if he’s going to have a productive passing game, this is the week for it. The Cardinals are allowing a league-high 294.2 passing yards per game and league-high 9.2 passing yards per attempt.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 270.5 PASSING YARDS – The 49ers may not need to throw a whole lot in order to beat the Atlanta Falcons but, if they do, the Falcons are allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt but Jimmy G has thrown for more than 270 yards five times in 13 games.
Jared Goff UNDER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – There have been ups and downs to Goff’s season but he is averaging 285.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 266 yards in eight of 13 games. The Cowboys, however, do have a solid enough pass defense, allowing 216.4 yards per game and 7.0 yards per attempt, both of which are above average and enough to nudge Goff towards the under.
RAPID FIRE
Jarvis Landry +0.5 receptions vs. Julio Jones – Jones has the higher ceiling but the opposition is what makes this pick. Jones is facing the 49ers, who may have the best pass defense in the league, while Landry faces the Cardinals, who might have the worst. That discrepancy is enough to at least like Landry as the underdog.
Nick Chubb -1.5 rushing yards vs. Ezekiel Elliott – Chubb is averaging a league-leading 98.5 rushing yards per game, and while Zeke is good, he’s averaging 82.4 rushing yards per game and hasn’t reached 100 rushing yards in five straight games.
Amari Cooper +7.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones – Another pick driven by the 49ers Defense going against Julio Jones but that’s only part of it. The other part is that Amari Cooper is much more productive at home, averaging 126.3 receiving yards per game in Dallas this season.
