Too Expensive for NFBC Drafts? Shortstop Fantasy Baseball ADPs That May Be Overvalued

February 18, 2025

Andy's overvalued fantasy baseball shortstops for NFBC drafts in 2025. Are these big-name shortstops potential fantasy baseball busts to avoid drafting?

The shortstop position is very top-heavy in 2025. In NFBC drafts, four shortstops consistently go within the first round, with two more going in the second round. The top 11 players at the position are all being drafted within the first 100 picks.

However, is it worth paying for these players at their current ADP in NFBC drafts? In this piece, I will analyze four shortstops that I project to bust in NFBC leagues at their current NFBC ADPs. While they are not "bad" picks in certain team builds, it may be smarter to target other options at the point of the draft.

Be sure to check out all of our other NFBC fantasy baseball articles and NFBC fantasy baseball rankings. You can follow us @RotoBallerMLB and me at @A_SMITH_FS on X for league-winning content all offseason. Let's dive in!

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Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 77.8

Willy Adames enjoyed a career season in 2024. He had a .251/.331/.462 slash line, with 32 home runs and an incredible 112 RBI. He also scored 93 runs and swiped 21 bags.

This performance earned him a seven-year contract worth $182 million with the San Francisco Giants, the largest contract in team history. However, moving to San Francisco could significantly limit Adames' offensive upside.

According to Statcast, Oracle Park in San Francisco has allowed the third-fewest home runs to right-handed hitters, while American Family Field in Milwaukee had the seventh most over the past three seasons. Adames also generated a .243 xBA, which suggests that he could see some regression in that statistic in 2025.

In addition, the 29-year-old was very efficient with runners in scoring position, which helped inflate his RBI production. With runners in scoring position, he posted a .293 AVG with a .657 SLG. He also hit 18 of his home runs with a runner in scoring position. If his "clutch" factor takes a slight step back, his RBI production could decline significantly.

Lastly, the Giants as a team were not as aggressive on the basepaths as the Brewers, which could also limit Adames' upside. Last summer, the Giants stole the third-fewest bases while the Brewers stole the second most.

Moving to a less-favorable home park and joining a team unwilling to create offense with speed could put Adames in a difficult position to perform at his ADP. Instead, drafters should look to target an elite relief pitcher at this spot in the draft (Andres Munoz, Felix Bautista) or a high-end catcher like Cal Raleigh, Salvador Perez, or Willson Contreras.

Willy Adames was 🔥 with RISP in 2024 (.293 AVG, .657 SLG, 18 HR).
But with a .243 xBA and a move to pitcher-friendly SF, regression is coming.
If his "clutch" factor dips, so do the RBIs. Easy fade at his @TheReal_NFC ADP. #FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/Bx2RdOUmu0

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 12, 2025

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

ADP: 140.7

While shortstop is a top-heavy position, a few intriguing names go in double-digit rounds. However, Anthony Volpe of the New York Yankees is being pushed too high on draft boards, among other shortstops.

After struggling during his rookie season, Volpe did not progress much in his sophomore campaign. He posted a .243/.293/.364 line with 12 home runs and 18 stolen bases, which slightly improved from the .209/.283/.383 line he held in 2023.

The former top prospect generated a poor .278 xwOBA, .238 xBA, and .332 xSLG, which were all significantly below the average marks. He also drew walks at a poor 6.1 percent rate and struck out at a below-average 22.6 percent rate.

Volpe also generated hard hits at a low 35.4 percent rate and barrels at a 3.9 percent rate, which placed him in the 23rd and 13th percentiles among qualified hitters, respectively.

Despite his unstable bat, he has swiped at least 24 bags in each of his first two major league seasons, thanks to his 83rd-percentile sprint speed.

In addition, Volpe saw his production against fastballs decline in 2024 compared to his rookie season. Last summer, the infielder generated a .369 xSLG against fastballs, a drop from the .454 xSLG he held during his rookie season. In addition, his power production against breaking balls (.290 xSLG) declined from the .325 xSLG he posted during 2023.

However, Volpe's elite defensive play has kept him in the lineup. According to Baseball Savant, Volpe was placed in the 97th percentile in range (outs above average).

Given his poor offensive output, fantasy managers looking for steals at the shortstop position should instead pivot to Masyn Winn of the St. Louis Cardinals a round later at his 165.4 ADP.

In addition, more proven bats at the position, like Dansby Swanson (ADP:182.2) and Carlos Correa (ADP: 246.2), are going several rounds later than Volpe, which will provide fantasy managers with more stable production and a higher floor. Also, Bo Bichette (ADP: 136.5) carries a much higher floor with more upside at a near-identical ADP.

CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

ADP: 48.8

CJ Abrams is going off the board as the No. 9 shortstop in NFBC drafts. Last season, the 24-year-old held a .246/.314/.433 slash line with 20 home runs and 31 stolen bases. This was similar to the .245/.300/.412 line, 18 home runs, and 47 stolen bases he posted during the 2023 season.

While Abrams has seemed to increase his power production, a look under the hood suggests this may not be sustianable.

Last season, the infielder generated an incredible .588 SLG against fastballs. However, according to Statcast, he generated a much lower .466 xSLG, suggesting he will face some regression in 2025. In addition, he also overperformed in wOBA against fastballs as he posted a .415 but generated a lower .355 xwOBA.

In addition, Abrams saw his production decline significantly in the second half. After the Midsummer Classic, he held a disappointing .203/.260/.326 line, compared to the .268/.343/.489 line he held in the first half.

The former sixth-overall pick was also demoted to the minor leagues in September due to off-the-field issues.

While he has high stolen base potential, given his unsustainable power production and the sharp decline in the second half, fantasy managers should opt to target Corey Seager instead at a similar 45.2 ADP.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 4.3

There is no doubting Elly De La Cruz's talent. The 23-year-old has game-breaking speed with elite power potential. However, he has yet to put it all together over an extended period. Sitting with an ADP of 4.3 is a hefty price tag for a player with several glaring concerns.

Last season, De La Cruz posted a .259/.339/.471 line with 25 home runs and an incredible 67 stolen bases. He placed in the 100th percentile in sprint speed and is the favorite to lead the majors in steals once again. With his speed, he scored 105 runs, which was fifth in the National League. He also had 76 RBI.

However, production in the batter's box leaves some doubt. While he posted a strong 75.2 mph bat speed (90th percentile), he struggled to make consistent contact. He struck out at a hefty 31.3 percent rate and held a 33.4 percent whiff rate. These metrics placed him in the sixth and eighth percentile, respectively. In addition, he generated a poor .240 xBA, which was well below average.

However, when he did make contact, he hit the ball at an above-average 45.7 percent hard-hit rate and granted an excellent 12.7 percent barrel rate.

He will provide you with an elite stolen base and run production in standard category leagues. However, given his high whiff rates, his batting average and power could be at risk of declining in 2025.

To build around De La Cruz in a standard league, you would have to then be overaggressive on batting average contributors much earlier in the draft, which could limit your overall team production.

At his ADP, it would be much safer to target a true five-category player such as fellow shortstop Gunnar Henderson, third baseman Jose Ramirez, or an outfielder like Kyle Tucker.

I'm fading Elly De La Cruz at ADP 4.3 on @TheReal_NFC

No doubt, Elly is electric—100th percentile sprint speed, 67 SB, 25 HR. But a 31.3% K rate, 33.4% whiff rate, and .240 xBA? Yikes.
Too many red flags
Give me Henderson, J-Ram, or Tucker instead. #FantasyBaseball

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 12, 2025

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