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Scott Cullen provides his MLB DFS prop picks for April 14th, 2021 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy baseball advice.
Wednesday offers up a full slate of games in Major League Baseball and Monkey Knife Fight is there with contests for each and every one to make it even more fun.
The action starts early, with the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees squaring off shortly after 1:00 ET.
There are not a bunch of classic pitching matchups but a few that are of interest, including: Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox at Kenta Maeda and the Minnesota Twins, as well as Cleveland’s Zach Plesac against Carlos Rodon and the Chicago White Sox.
With a full batch of games, there will be many opportunities to find an edge so here are some angles to consider when playing Wednesday’s MLB action on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Corbin Burnes MORE THAN 8.5 STRIKEOUTS
The Brewers starter had a breakthrough season in 2020 but it was a shortened season so there was some uncertainty coming into this season about just how real it was. Through two starts this season, he has allowed one earned run while striking out 20 with zero walks in 12 1/3 innings. He might be even better than he showed last season and he is facing a Chicago Cubs lineup that has the highest strikeout rate (28.9%) in the National League.
Griffin Canning MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
A third-year starter for the Angels, Canning has shown potential and can miss bats but does get hit hard from time to time. Witness his first start of the season, when he struck out seven in 5 1/3 innings but he also surrendered a couple of home runs. He is matched up against a Kansas City Royals lineup that has the fourth highest strikeout rate (27.6%) in the major leagues so it’s a favorable opportunity so long as Canning can stay in the game.
Brad Keller LESS THAN 15.5 PITCHING OUTS
After an impressive 2020 season, in which he had a 2.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, Keller was a prime candidate for regression in 2021 and it has landed on him like an anvil. In his first two starts this season, the Royals starter has a 19.29 ERA while lasting just 4 2/3 innings. He goes up against an Angels lineup that ranks sixth in weighted runs created and seventh in weighted on-base average, so they are an above average opponent for a pitcher who has been decidedly below average so far.
Adam Wainwright LESS THAN 15.5 PITCHING OUTS
The 39-year-old Cardinals starter had a really impressive season in 2020 but maybe not a sustainable result at this stage of his career. He got rocked in his first start before rebounding in his second start, though he only went five innings. Washington has been around league average offensively this season so is that enough for Wainwright to go more than five innings against them? Maybe not. n
Shohei Ohtani MORE THAN 2.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
Ohtani has been the best version of himself early in the 2021 season, averaging nearly 5.5 MKF fantasy points per game. He would have to be facing a better pitcher than Brad Keller to expect him to get locked up.
Aaron Judge MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
The Yankees slugger is off to a mediocre start and is still good for nearly 1.7 total bases per game. Does a matchup against the Blue Jays’ Ross Stripling in Dunedin seem like one that should bring Judge’s current average down? I don’t think so.
RAPID FIRE
Mike Trout +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Juan Soto
Two of the very best hitters on the planet. In the very early going this season, Soto is averaging 1.63 runs plus RBI per game, while Trout has 1.55. That’s a small edge for Soto and neither has a very difficult matchup, with Trout and the Angels taking on Brad Keller and Royals as Soto and the Nationals are in St. Louis to battle Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals.
STAR SHOOTOUT - MAIN GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Charlie Morton MORE THAN 6.5 STRIKEOUTS
While the veteran starter has been a consistent source of strikeouts late in his career, with 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings since 2016, the issue is more about whether he will stay in the game long enough to accrue at least seven strikeouts. He has hit that threshold once in his first two starts this season, did it three times in nine starts last season, and 20 times in 33 starts during the 2019 season. He is at home against a Miami team with a slightly better-than-average strikeout rate (24.0%) so that doesn’t help much. Maybe discount some of those 2020 results because Morton was in Tampa Bay and their usage is different from most teams, so let’s call it a slight lean towards Morton.
Lance McCullers Jr. MORE THAN 5.5 STRIKEOUTS
McCullers has 13 strikeouts in 10 innings through his first two starts of the year and goes against a Detroit Tigers lineup that strikes out more (27.3%) than most so no need to overthink this one.
Ty France MORE THAN 2.5 MKF FANTASY POINTS
The Mariners infielder has been good for nearly 3.4 MKF fantasy points per game early in this season and Seattle is in Baltimore to face Matt Harvey. Six years ago, that might have been a problem. Not so much now.
Randy Arozarena MORE THAN 1.5 TOTAL BASES
The Rays slugger is averaging 2.0 total bases per game through the first 10 games of the season and has produced multiple total bases in a game five times through the first 10 games. It is not necessarily a big advantage but it is enough to like Arozarena at home against Texas with Kohei Arihara on the mound.
Zach Plesac MORE THAN 16.5 PITCHING OUTS
After a breakthrough season in 2020, it would have been fair to be skeptical of Plesac entering 2021 – I know I was – but he has not missed a beat. In his first two starts this season, Plesac has a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings. Even against a tough White Sox lineup, he should be able to go 5 2/3 innings.
RAPID FIRE
Ronald Acuna Jr. -0.5 MKF fantasy points vs. Mitch Haniger
Through 11 games, Acuna Jr. may be the most dangerous hitter in baseball, averaging 5.45 MKF fantasy points per game. Haniger is off to a nice start but a nice start is averaging 3.55 MKF fantasy points per game so he is not in the same class as Acuna Jr.; not many are.
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