RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Welcome back RotoBaller PGA family! The Waste Management Phoenix Open seems to always provide some weekend drama and that was once again the case this year. Jordan Spieth electrified the golf world when he fired a third-round 61 on Saturday, while one of the most consistent players in the world, Xander Schauffele, appeared to have a clear path to victory Sunday. However, while Xander and Spieth faded in the final round, it was another superstar that's been dormant who claimed victory at TPC Scottsdale.
Brooks Koepka capped off a back-nine charge with a chip-in eagle on the 17th hole to win the WMPO at 19-under par. It was Koepka's second win in the event, but his first victory of any kind in almost two years. The four-time major champion has battled injuries for the better part of a year and has long-been tough to trust in "regular" Tour events, though Koepka appears ready to reclaim his spot as one of the best players in the world. I'm telling you guys, this season is going to be AMAZING!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Overview
After some fun in Phoenix, we head to one of the most iconic layouts in the world, Pebble Beach Golf Links. An annual stop on the PGA Tour schedule, this event is usually a pro-am event that's played over three golf courses (Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, & Monterey Peninsula). However, like the American Express event of a couple weeks ago, this year's AT&T has been altered due to COVID precautions, with a more straightforward tournament being played (without amateur partners) on just two courses (PB & SH) and a standard 36-hole cut instead of this event's traditional 54-hole chop down.
If there's been anything at all good to come out of this godawful virus, it's the elimination of the pro-ams on the PGA Tour. I've never understood why the Tour "wastes" one of the most legendary golf courses on the planet every year with Bill Murray and Larry The Cable Guy. Thank goodness, we at least get a one-year reprieve from the slogging, seven-hour rounds that are traditionally common-place in this event.
As for the real golf being played, this is a bit of a tricky one to peg - as events on multiple golf courses generally are - but one that we can rely fairly heavily on course history, as we see a certain set of players routinely finish high in this event. Nick Taylor took the crown last year and he'll be back to defend against a field that includes Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, and *checks notes* David Duval?!? Ok...so maybe not all of the silliness is gone from this year's AT&T. Let's dive in!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par 72 - 6,816 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: Jack Neville & Douglas Grant
As mentioned in the intro, we are dealing with two different courses this week, instead of the traditional three. In addition to Pebble, which players will play once over the first two rounds and for the entire weekend, Spyglass Hill (6,953 yds/Par-72/Poa) will also be in the rotation. Both are ruggedly beautiful, with the famous Pebble Beach being the crown jewel.
Both courses measure less than 7,000 yards, so distance isn't a necessity this week. Players will need to find fairways and greens, but that can be more difficult than it sounds in often unpredictable conditions. With the event smack-dab on the Monterrey Peninsula coast, huge changes in weather can, and often does, influence the outcome of this tournament.
So...we are forced to deal with a lot of unpredictable variables this week. The course a player draws for each different day and the amount of wind during their rounds on those different courses is something that is unfortunately out of our hands. This event is famously tough on first-timers, so I'm targeting players with plenty of AT&T experience that are sharp on approach shots.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent Champions & Winning Scores
- 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
- 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
- 2018: Ted Potter Jr (-17)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
- 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-15)
Notes From Last Year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Pebble Beach showed its teeth a bit in the final round, as only 11 players broke par on Sunday in windy conditions.
- Nick Taylor held off Kevin Streelman & Phil Mickelson for the second win of his PGA Tour career and first since 2014.
- For the third time in four years, the winning score was 19-under par.
- Kevin Streelman and partner, Larry Fitzgerald, won the Pro-Am competition for the second time. When are we gonna call Fitz out as a sandbagger?
The Horse
Dustin Johnson
*UPDATE: DJ HAS WITHDRAWN
DraftKings: $12,000
FanDuel: $
Notable Course History: T2 (2018), T3 ('17), T4 ('15), T2 ('14), Win ('10 &'09)
I guess we have to at least mention the number-one player in the world, right? After taking a brief (and much deserved) break from golf, DJ continued his winning ways last week by overpowering the field at the Saudi International for the second time in three years.
In addition to being the best player in this field by leaps and bounds, Johnson has also been very good at Pebble Beach throughout his career, logging back-to-back wins in 2009-10 and racking up five top-five finishes in subsequent starts.
So we know that DJ is the class of this week’s field and has been dominant at Pebble Beach, so why don’t we auto-roster him this week? Well, let’s circle back around to that win in Saudi Arabia last week. This year marks the third time Johnson will be playing the Saudi International and the AT&T in back-to-back weeks. The jet lag hasn’t been kind to him, as he’s only managed finishes of T45 & T32 in his last two AT&T starts. Guessing a player’s fatigue level is always tricky, but it is a legitimate concern when considering DJ and his massive DFS price tag this week.
The Ponies
Jordan Spieth
DraftKings: $9,700
FanDuel: $
Notable Course History: T9 ('20), Win ('17), T7 ('15), T4 ('14)
Ok...how fun was Saturday at the WMPO? Jordan Spieth reminded us of the electricity he can bring to the game when he’s in contention with a brilliant third-round 61 at TPC Scottsdale.
His struggles are well documented, but he might be finding his game at just the right time, as he’s been excellent at Pebble Beach throughout his career. Spieth won the AT&T in 2017 and has three career top-10s in this event, including a T9 outing last year when his game was extremely shaky.
The driver is still a huge issue - he lost an abysmal 3.7 strokes OTT last week - but there are certainly some positives to take away from last week, the biggest being that Spieth led the WMPO field in SG: Approach, gaining a MASSIVE 7.8 strokes with his irons.
Many like to attribute Spieth’s run of past successes only to his putting (he unquestionably ran hot on the greens), but lots of people forget that the Texan was also the top iron player on the PGA Tour at the time. His inconsistency with the driver will continue to be an issue, but if - and it’s a big if - he’s figured out something with the irons, we might start to see Spieth pop up on leaderboards with some regularity.
Kevin Streelman
DraftKings: $8,900
FanDuel: $
Notable Course History: 2nd ('20), T7 ('19), 6th ('18)
My biggest concern with the veteran is how will he be able to compete without Larry Fitzgerald by his side? In all seriousness, Kevin Streelman has been a beast in this event for several years. He scored a runner-up finish last year, which marked his third-straight Pebble Beach start with at least a T7.
In addition to the elite course history at Pebble, Streels heads to the AT&T with trending form. He posted a solid, if unspectacular, T37 at the AmEx a few weeks ago and looked sharp en route to a T30 last week in Phoenix.
Different events play to different strengths, and this week’s AT&T is one that routinely rewards experience. Streelman is an old hand on these golf courses and I look for him to once again play well this week.
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Matt Jones
DraftKings: $8,100
FanDuel: $
Notable Course History: T6 ('20), T11 ('16), T7 ('15), 10th ('10)
This is always an event in which I find myself considering players that aren’t consistently on my DFS radar. That’s where we are with Matt Jones, a solid golfer, but one that I’m not routinely targeting.
Despite a gross price tag (a common theme on this slate), I’m willing to pull the trigger on the Aussie this week though, as he has both a nice Pebble Beach resume and some solid recent form. Jones hasn’t logged any top-10’s in 2021, but he’s made the cut in all four of his starts this year.
A T11 at the Sony and a T21 at the AmEx indicate he’s playing well though, not to mention the fact that he’s gained strokes T2G in four-straight events. He brings that consistent play to a Pebble layout where he’s made the cut in 11 of 13 career starts and posted a top-five in last year’s AT&T.
Scott Stallings
DraftKings: $7,500
FanDuel: $
Notable Course History: 3rd ('19), 7th ('18), T14 ('17)
You guys that read my work often know I’m openly a Stallings “homer” - sometimes to my detriment - but with his course history at Pebble and the way he’s been hitting the ball, I’ve gotta roll with my guy again this week.
Stallings has a top-five and a top-10 over his last three AT&T starts. He’s also been a ball-striking beast in his three starts of 2021, gaining 4.7 strokes T2G at the Farmers and 4.2 strokes T2G en route to a T36 last week at TPC Scottsdale.
Despite his sharp ball striking, the results haven’t been there, as he’s struggled mightily on the greens, losing strokes putting in each of his three 2021 starts. Poa Annua has historically been his best putting surface, so we’re crossing our fingers that he finds he finds his stroke this week.
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