RADIO
The boring part about this article is that when Erik Van Rooyen wins, there is no way we lose money on the article, but when we don't have a winner in the outright section, the article is still structured in such a way that we can lose the $20 we bet on outrights and till profit $32 off our $100 like we did last week. Our placement card along with out matchups cashing in big for us has been the reason for this success over the course of the season.
Hopefully we can end the year with a bang and record another winner and keep stacking profit heading into the off season.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Prior Week Recap
By betting our $100 last week, we have profited $32.85 on last week's card. We made money in all sections of the article except for a risky 4-leg parlay in the farewell fiver section. We are stacking week's really nicely as the last two weeks have profited $200+ if you bet your $100 on the below bets.
Outrights ($20)
Eric Cole 35-1 (Betrivers)
The coal miner meme fits in nicely with his last name, but it also has me thinking that the perfect meme to describe Cole is the one of the miner who gives up digging a few inches away from the giant stash of diamonds. Cole has three top-3 finishes this fall swing and has been doing so with a putter that really hasn't been itself lately. In fact, Cole has not played in a shotlink event this fall swing that has seen him gain strokes putting, which is very frustrating considering he is 17th on tour in strokes gained putting (+0.480 per round).
Cole has been blue collar on the approach side of things, not losing more than -0.06 strokes in any of his last 25 events while ranking as the 6th best iron player in the field over the last 24 rounds. At a course that sees driving accuracy increase to 70% over the last four years, Cole should hit a few more fairways than he typically does, making his biggest weakness less of an inhibitor this week. Strap on the work boots, heat up the Coles and let's go get that bread, Eric!
JT Poston 35-1 (Bet365)
His recent form is simply incredible considering he is priced 35-1 before falling closer to 30 as the week went on. His worst finish since the 3M Open has been a T24, followed by T22, T7, T3, T2 in order of brilliance. We know that Poston is playing great golf right now after a T3 at the Shriners in his only fall-swing appearance and will be looking to improve on the T21 and T14 he has had in his last four starts at Sea Island. His approach play is the 2nd-best in the field and is making birdies at an elite level right now. To get Eric Cole and JT Poston at 35-1 was a great start to the card and hopefully the message in the bottle comes true this week.
Denny McCarthy 45-1 (Bet365)
Denny McCarthy got slapped with an even bigger outright number in the 40s, which is fine by our standards considering there are five top-20 finishes in his last 8 starts and two top-10 finishes at this venue in the last four appearances too. The dirt has been laid and with a revitalized approach game there is a foundation to no longer NEED the putter to go nuclear to win. If it does and the irons continue to keep spiking hot and cold. We have a weaker field, great recent form and course history that Denny should be able to use to get to pay dirt in the final event of the year.
Brendon Todd 55-1 (Bet365)
Another value-based bet as Todd has four top-20s in his last seven starts with a 6th, 7th and 2nd his best finishes. A few years ago the Todfather finished 4th before he decided to leave the "Sea Island Mafia" in pursuit of more personal endeavors. He typically gets the job done on easier courses and we know that when that putter gets rolling, there are not many who would say no when asked to kiss his putting ring. Another reasonable number at 55-1 on a golfer who has flirted with winning the last few times he has played golf.
Taylor Pendrith 60-1 (FanDuel)
Taylor Pendrith has a lot more in common with Taylor Swift than you would imagine. He is on my card at 60-1 instead of 75-1 because half of golf twitter is his fanboy this week and out of peer pressure I am also supporting Taylor. Upon further investigation there are three really impressive finishes in his last trio of starts, landing T3, T15 and T8 most recently at Butterfield Bermuda. Pendrithfties will know that he has played well here in his last two starts with T15 and T26 finishes. He also grades out really well on the comp course side of things but turns out two heavy lifters were his two top-10 finishes at the Butterfield Bermuda. We will ride with the twitter Squad on this one!
Adam Schenk 66-1 (Bet365)
The recent form has not quite been there since returning back to golf after the Tour Championship charge that set him up magnificently for the 2024 year. Hopefully with his year full of $$$ and a predictable schedule as a new dad will help his golf game out a little. We get our guy at 66-1 despite his slew of top-10 finishes in recent starts. As you can see in the tweet below, he was 40-1 at the Shriners two events ago. He bounces back hard as he has learnt to do as a perennial bridesmaid. Hopefully that ends this week and Schenk is the bell of the ball.
Sam Ryder 110-1 (Bet365)
Sam Ryder has been on fire with his irons this fall swing, but since we have been trying to cash in on his stellar iron play that has fallen off a little since the Sanderson Farms. However, what ever happened out in Mexico, resulted in a T10 which is nice to see for somebody who is at 110-1. Hopefully that is the start of some pristine golf for our guy who has come close a few times in the past. A sprinkle on him at this number is good for the soul and hopefully good for the pocket.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($45)
Last week: +$35
- $8 Adam Scott T20 +100
- $8 Justin Lower T30 +125
- $8 Kramer Hickock T40 +115
- $8 Peter Malnati T40 +120
- $8 Russell Knox T40 +120
- $8 Brian Gay T40 +165
- $7 Brian Gay T20 +500
This week
Top 20 Placements
- $6 Corey Conners +170
- $7 Eric Cole+190
- $6 JT Poston +190
- $7 Russell Henley +130
- $6 Denny McCarthy +220
- $6 Sam Ryder +400
Top 40 Placements
- $7 Brendon Todd +105
Matchups ($30)
Last week +$14:
- $20 Adam Scott OVER Lucas Herbert -140. It feels like as past champion of this event, Herbert is getting a little too much respect from the bookies. Adam Scott finishes much higher up the leaderboard much more regularly than Herbert, so we are going to treat this week the same as any other.
This week:
- McCarthy OVER Mitchell -134 Bet365 - We really like Denny's ability to repeatedly fall inside the top 20 and his solid course history here should give him the edge over Keith Mitchell, who has been struggling to get towards the top of the leaderboard lately.
- Conners OVER Svensson -145 Caesars - Corey Conners is turning into a T20 machine, while Adam Svensson's weekend metrics tend to see him slide down the leaderboard a little more than he would like as the event draws to a close. We are also hoping to catch the books being a little too respectful towards a past champion who has not been playing amazing lately, while the model has Corey Conners ranked 1st overall.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 +3534 FD
Last week's farewell fiver went 1-4, but considering it was a parlay, might as well miss em all if one goes down early. We are back with four more guys in R1 looking to return a +1707 ticket for our Thursday afternoon sweat. Nate Lashley, Alex Noren, Justin Suh and Eric Cole all to win their 3-ball matches in R1. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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