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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/12/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

The NBA postseason is upon us and so is the excitement that comes with it! The league has been toying with the playoff structure the last few seasons since the COVID-shortened season of 2020 and this year we had 10 teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs. Teams that finished seventh through tenth will now compete in a play-in tournament to try to grab the final two spots in the first round. The four teams in action tonight are the seventh and eighth seeds that have the benefit of double elimination. Tonight's winners will be locked into the seventh seed, while the losers will have one more chance to grab the eighth seed later this week against tomorrow night's winners. Does that all make sense? If not you can see the NBA's breakdown here.

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This is the first postseason betting picks piece so I will reset my record for the playoffs. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 196-168-2
  • Against the Spread 85-75-2
  • Over/Under 38-46
  • Player Props 73-47

 

NBA Betting Picks

L.A. Clippers (+3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (230.5 total)

This game should be awesome and I know my buddy Kyle Ringstad (the biggest T-Wolves fan I know) is going to be in attendance and sweating bullets. The last thing that Minnesota fans wanted was for their team to drop into the seventh spot in the West and run the risk of missing the main tournament. And the absolute last thing they wanted was to face a surging Clippers team that has a healthy Paul George. I smell trouble, sorry Kyle!

It's been a hugely successful year for Minnesota, who like Cleveland was one of the most improved squads in the league this year. They finally got the right pieces around Karl Anthony-Towns and their second-year stud Anthony Edwards has blossomed into a star. Minnesota's offense is a thing of beauty and they've been piling up points on opponents all season, but their defense has been rather poor and that's where I give the Clippers a big advantage. The Wolves allowed 113 points per game on average this season and that number has ballooned to 122 points allowed during their most recent 10-game stretch.

L.A. had a solid season, finishing two games above .500 without a single game from Kawhi Leonard and only 31 games from Paul George. Consider that they were 18-13 with PG13 in the lineup (and 2.5 points better in net rating) and you'll start to see why I am siding with them in this matchup. Paul George is one of only a handful of NBA players who can do what he does. He's an elite three-point shooter, solid passer, and still a high-end defender. He's one tier below Giannis, Durant, and LeBron, but his ability to play positionless basketball and affect the game in multiple different ways has still been on display this season.

This Clippers team has reeled off five straight wins and only lost once since George returned to the lineup. They have the size to match up with Towns with the big man platoon of Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac, as well as the perimeter shooting and defense that Norman Powell and Robert Covington (both acquired from Portland before the deadline). Reggie Jackson gets buckets and their bench has a ton of experience this season as guys like Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, and Terence Mann have all played big minutes when the team was so banged up.

I have three bets here in this game and only one in the second game. The biggest bet is on the Clippers to cover, followed by smaller bets on the L.A. money line and team total. My model has this game going over it's total by a full six points and win or lose, I think the Clippers score 115 tonight in a high-scoring affair.

The Picks: Clippers +3 (-110 DK) and half unit on Clippers ML (+130 DK)

Clippers team total over 114.5 points (-115 DK)

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (228.5 total)

I was disappointed that Cleveland stumbled down the stretch and fell into the play-in tournament because at one point they looked like they could really compete for a seed as high as fourth or fifth in the conference. They simply didn't have the depth to deal with injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen in the second half. Allen's interior defense, rebounding, and post scoring have really been missed and yesterday he was officially ruled out for this game, dealing my optimism for the Cavs postseason hopes another blow.

But not all is lost. Evan Mobley has returned to the lineup and got two games under his belt, including a productive 17-7-3-2-2 line against Brooklyn last Friday. I had the Cavs picked to cover a nearly identical spread in that game and was feeling pretty good about that pick until the Nets did what they do - turned it on late and got some separation in an 11-point win.

No matter how I run the numbers, I keep coming up with the Cavs to cover here. Even with their most recent form being significantly less impressive than their first-half form, I can't find the math to support a spread this large. Surely the playoff atmosphere and the gritty character of this Cavs team will help aid their cause, too, right? I'm not sure if I am trying to sell you here or maybe talk myself into this pick.

But again, in all honesty, and fandom aside, the Nets should win this game, but I think the Cavs should cover, too. The Nets have a 3-1 season series lead, but the win last Friday was the only time they covered this number. I'm taking Cleveland and the points here and banking on their ability to continue to compete against good teams. Hopefully, they show up tonight in a huge game for the franchise.

Bonus Pick: Cavs +8.5 (-110 DK)

 

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NBA Prop Bet Picks

Darius Garland over 33.5 points/assists (-125 DK)

This is the softest Garland prop I could find. His rebound prop is 3.5 and I think he can easily grab four boards, but it's no safe bet as he had no boards in Saturday's game against Brooklyn and the Cavs usually have at least two 7-footers on the floor at the same time to gobble up boards. So let's take rebounds out of the equation and focus on Garland's strengths - passing and shooting. He's going to have the ball in his hands every possession and in a game of such importance, I have pushed his minutes' projection up to 40-42 minutes. The Cavs are simply much, much better with him on the floor even after bringing in Caris LeVert to help shoulder the ball-handling and scoring duties.

Anyway, the long-story-short is that despite only having three assists in their last meeting with the Nets, Garland had 6, 11, and 12 in the other games and averages almost nine per game. His scoring of late has been way up from his season average of 21.7 and I like his chances of getting to 34 with points and dimes here whether he does it with more buckets or assists doesn't matter to me.

Reggie Jackson over 17.5 points (-105 DK)

I was looking for a prop that wasn't so soft and where I think the field or Vegas is off a bit and wound up here. Jackson functions more like a shooting guard than a point guard with George in the lineup. He scored a half-point more with George this season than without him and his assists go down a tick. He averaged over 18 per game against Minnesota this year with the one really bad game (only five points) dragging that average down. In a game where I expect the Clippers to score a bunch of points, I see Jackson clearing this number.

Ivica Zubac over 17.5 Points/Rebounds (-120 DK)

The big man might be splitting time with Hartenstein, but has still been very effective and is coming into tonight with four straight double-doubles. In three games against KAT this season, he's averaged 22 points/boards and only missed this number once (16 combined stats in the very first meeting). If he gets his usual 24-25 minutes of run, he's very capable of clearing this number with ease.

Paul George over 1.5 steals (-155 DK)

This is what I can a parlay prop. It's not something I want to bet as a straight with those odds, but definitely something you can add another soft prop to get some decent odds. George averages over two steals per game and has two or more in every game since he's returned. If you want some better odds, consider over 2.5 steals/blocks at +105 since George is right around 2.6 "stocks" per game on the season.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nolan Arenado

Ready for Second Half
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Back in Action to Begin Second Half
Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
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