X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/12/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/12/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

The NBA postseason is upon us and so is the excitement that comes with it! The league has been toying with the playoff structure the last few seasons since the COVID-shortened season of 2020 and this year we had 10 teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs. Teams that finished seventh through tenth will now compete in a play-in tournament to try to grab the final two spots in the first round. The four teams in action tonight are the seventh and eighth seeds that have the benefit of double elimination. Tonight's winners will be locked into the seventh seed, while the losers will have one more chance to grab the eighth seed later this week against tomorrow night's winners. Does that all make sense? If not you can see the NBA's breakdown here.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

This is the first postseason betting picks piece so I will reset my record for the playoffs. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, April 12, 2022. I would also strongly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

 

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 196-168-2
  • Against the Spread 85-75-2
  • Over/Under 38-46
  • Player Props 73-47

 

NBA Betting Picks

L.A. Clippers (+3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (230.5 total)

This game should be awesome and I know my buddy Kyle Ringstad (the biggest T-Wolves fan I know) is going to be in attendance and sweating bullets. The last thing that Minnesota fans wanted was for their team to drop into the seventh spot in the West and run the risk of missing the main tournament. And the absolute last thing they wanted was to face a surging Clippers team that has a healthy Paul George. I smell trouble, sorry Kyle!

It's been a hugely successful year for Minnesota, who like Cleveland was one of the most improved squads in the league this year. They finally got the right pieces around Karl Anthony-Towns and their second-year stud Anthony Edwards has blossomed into a star. Minnesota's offense is a thing of beauty and they've been piling up points on opponents all season, but their defense has been rather poor and that's where I give the Clippers a big advantage. The Wolves allowed 113 points per game on average this season and that number has ballooned to 122 points allowed during their most recent 10-game stretch.

L.A. had a solid season, finishing two games above .500 without a single game from Kawhi Leonard and only 31 games from Paul George. Consider that they were 18-13 with PG13 in the lineup (and 2.5 points better in net rating) and you'll start to see why I am siding with them in this matchup. Paul George is one of only a handful of NBA players who can do what he does. He's an elite three-point shooter, solid passer, and still a high-end defender. He's one tier below Giannis, Durant, and LeBron, but his ability to play positionless basketball and affect the game in multiple different ways has still been on display this season.

This Clippers team has reeled off five straight wins and only lost once since George returned to the lineup. They have the size to match up with Towns with the big man platoon of Isaiah Hartenstein and Ivica Zubac, as well as the perimeter shooting and defense that Norman Powell and Robert Covington (both acquired from Portland before the deadline). Reggie Jackson gets buckets and their bench has a ton of experience this season as guys like Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, and Terence Mann have all played big minutes when the team was so banged up.

I have three bets here in this game and only one in the second game. The biggest bet is on the Clippers to cover, followed by smaller bets on the L.A. money line and team total. My model has this game going over it's total by a full six points and win or lose, I think the Clippers score 115 tonight in a high-scoring affair.

The Picks: Clippers +3 (-110 DK) and half unit on Clippers ML (+130 DK)

Clippers team total over 114.5 points (-115 DK)

 

Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (228.5 total)

I was disappointed that Cleveland stumbled down the stretch and fell into the play-in tournament because at one point they looked like they could really compete for a seed as high as fourth or fifth in the conference. They simply didn't have the depth to deal with injuries to Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen in the second half. Allen's interior defense, rebounding, and post scoring have really been missed and yesterday he was officially ruled out for this game, dealing my optimism for the Cavs postseason hopes another blow.

But not all is lost. Evan Mobley has returned to the lineup and got two games under his belt, including a productive 17-7-3-2-2 line against Brooklyn last Friday. I had the Cavs picked to cover a nearly identical spread in that game and was feeling pretty good about that pick until the Nets did what they do - turned it on late and got some separation in an 11-point win.

No matter how I run the numbers, I keep coming up with the Cavs to cover here. Even with their most recent form being significantly less impressive than their first-half form, I can't find the math to support a spread this large. Surely the playoff atmosphere and the gritty character of this Cavs team will help aid their cause, too, right? I'm not sure if I am trying to sell you here or maybe talk myself into this pick.

But again, in all honesty, and fandom aside, the Nets should win this game, but I think the Cavs should cover, too. The Nets have a 3-1 season series lead, but the win last Friday was the only time they covered this number. I'm taking Cleveland and the points here and banking on their ability to continue to compete against good teams. Hopefully, they show up tonight in a huge game for the franchise.

Bonus Pick: Cavs +8.5 (-110 DK)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Darius Garland over 33.5 points/assists (-125 DK)

This is the softest Garland prop I could find. His rebound prop is 3.5 and I think he can easily grab four boards, but it's no safe bet as he had no boards in Saturday's game against Brooklyn and the Cavs usually have at least two 7-footers on the floor at the same time to gobble up boards. So let's take rebounds out of the equation and focus on Garland's strengths - passing and shooting. He's going to have the ball in his hands every possession and in a game of such importance, I have pushed his minutes' projection up to 40-42 minutes. The Cavs are simply much, much better with him on the floor even after bringing in Caris LeVert to help shoulder the ball-handling and scoring duties.

Anyway, the long-story-short is that despite only having three assists in their last meeting with the Nets, Garland had 6, 11, and 12 in the other games and averages almost nine per game. His scoring of late has been way up from his season average of 21.7 and I like his chances of getting to 34 with points and dimes here whether he does it with more buckets or assists doesn't matter to me.

Reggie Jackson over 17.5 points (-105 DK)

I was looking for a prop that wasn't so soft and where I think the field or Vegas is off a bit and wound up here. Jackson functions more like a shooting guard than a point guard with George in the lineup. He scored a half-point more with George this season than without him and his assists go down a tick. He averaged over 18 per game against Minnesota this year with the one really bad game (only five points) dragging that average down. In a game where I expect the Clippers to score a bunch of points, I see Jackson clearing this number.

Ivica Zubac over 17.5 Points/Rebounds (-120 DK)

The big man might be splitting time with Hartenstein, but has still been very effective and is coming into tonight with four straight double-doubles. In three games against KAT this season, he's averaged 22 points/boards and only missed this number once (16 combined stats in the very first meeting). If he gets his usual 24-25 minutes of run, he's very capable of clearing this number with ease.

Paul George over 1.5 steals (-155 DK)

This is what I can a parlay prop. It's not something I want to bet as a straight with those odds, but definitely something you can add another soft prop to get some decent odds. George averages over two steals per game and has two or more in every game since he's returned. If you want some better odds, consider over 2.5 steals/blocks at +105 since George is right around 2.6 "stocks" per game on the season.

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

NBA DFS News and Injury Alerts

More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

CFB

LaNorris Sellers Upgraded to Probable for Saturday Tilt Against Missouri
Jaylen Waddle

Good to Go For Thursday Night Football
Tucker Kraft

Suffers "Little Knee Tweak," Checks Out OK
Jaylen Waddle

Expected to Play and be a "Big Factor" on Thursday Night
Tucker Kraft

Suffers Knee Injury During Thursday's Practice
Clayton Kershaw

Will Retire at the End of the Season
Malcolm Brogdon

Landry Shamet and Malcolm Brogdon Both Staying with the Knicks?
Detroit Pistons

Charles Bediako Agrees to a Training Camp Deal with Detroit
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery, Uncertain for Training Camp
Charlotte Hornets

DaQuan Jeffries Waived by the Hornets
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Questionable For Saturday
Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP