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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/30/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/30/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Monday night was a great night for the article and a much-needed bankroll boost for yours truly! I don't even pretend to be someone who wages large sums of money on sports, but no matter the unit size, it's always nice to get a clean sweep as all of the bets in this piece hit with the exception of Tre Mann who didn't play for OKC. I went heavier on props and I mentioned that I might be doing that more often down the stretch as the games get tougher to handicap with so many players out and that may be the case again today, we'll see. With 11 games on the slate, there is no shortage of action it's simply a matter of finding some spots where we have enough data to feel confident in tonight.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 30, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 166-146-2
  • Against the Spread 77-67-2
  • Over/Under 34-43
  • Player Props 55-37
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks

Charlotte Hornets (-2) @ New York Knicks (223 total)

Watch out Charlotte, because the Knicks are surging! I'm sure Knicks fans are thrilled that they waited until the last few weeks of the season to start to gel and maybe it's a fluke, but R.J. Barrett is playing well and the Knickerbockers have reeled off four straight wins including some upsets of Chicago and Miami in that stretch.

The winning streak started with a road win against these Hornets. I rarely trust the Hornets to win games they're supposed to and I believe they were like seven or eight-point favorites in that game as the Knicks didn't have Julius Randle in the lineup that night.

I'm going going to overanalyze this one. New York is at home and should be favored in my opinion based on their strong recent play. Give me the home underdog here. Could this run end for the Knicks tonight? Sure, and I'll have my expectations tempered a bit, but the value here is on New York.

The Pick: Knicks ML (+105) 

 

Orlando Magic (+3) @ Washington Wizards (219 total)

The Wizards are an interesting team to break down. They're definitely among the bottom third of teams in the league in terms of both offense and defense, but they'll occasionally beat a good team - like they did the other night when they upset the Warriors. They're 3-3 over their last six games despite not having Kyle Kuzma and there's been no indication of a rest day for their best player Krisptaps Porizingis (fingers crossed that doesn't change).

Meanwhile, the Magic are without their best player as Wendell Carter Jr. is out tonight. That tips things towards Washington quite a bit for me as Carter is the best rebounder, scorer, and helps facilitate the offense as a passer, too. Washington is on a back-to-back after losing to the Bulls last night, but that hasn't negatively impacted them this year and they play a fairly deep rotation, too.

Washington is 3-0 against Orlando this year and I have a hard time believing the Magic go on the road here and beat them without WCJ. This spread feels very coverable, I'm taking the Wizards here.

The Pick: Wizards -3 (-110)

 

Miami Heat (+5) @ Boston Celtics (214.5 total)

It felt gross, but I ran my initial numbers early this morning and then bet the Celtics -4.5 as they were one of the strongest bets on the board. The line has moved to five points now, but I'm still on Boston, and here's why.

No matter what you (or me) or anyone else think of the Celtics - they keep winning and they continue to defy the odds. Despite not having a superstar (sorry Tatum fans, I put him in the second tier of star players in the league), this team has really come together and plays well as a unit. What they lack in stardom, they make up for with their depth, defense, and teamwork.

Derrick White has added solid depth to the backcourt alongside Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford continues to be a steadying presence on the interior and an excellent glue guy who makes his teammates better. Boston did lose their starting center Robert Williams III, but they'll likely just slide Horford to center and Tatum to PF, which is going to be a matchup problem for opponents.

Since January 29th, this team is 23-4. How is that even possible, right? And their record against the Heat this season? They're 2-0 and have won by an average margin of 23.5 points. Miami has dropped four of their last five and seems to be scuffling at the wrong time. Jimmy Butler is yelling at his coach and Miami is trending in the wrong direction. This game should be a battle, but I like Boston to pull away and cover. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up blowing them out. This team is simply firing on all cylinders, playing with confidence, and I'd be backing them home at this point against just about anyone.

The Pick: Celtics -5 (-110)

 

Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (232.5 total)

The Memphis Grizzlies are absolutely steamrolling the NBA right now. No Ja Morant? No problem! Memphis continues to bully their opponents even without Morant as they're now 18-2 on the season without him and they sport an absurd +18 net rating.

Memphis is an elite team! I'm not sure what else they need to do at this point (other than proving it in the playoffs) but in the last two weeks alone they've beaten the Nets and Bucks, crushed the Warriors, and have now won five straight.

While I love the Spurs, they're simply not on Memphis's level this year. They're 0-3 head-to-head against Memphis so far and have lost those three games by an average of 11.3 points. Jaren Jackson could miss this game, but at this point, it doesn't matter. If the Suns are the NBA Death Star, then Memphis just might be the NBA's version of the first order. You better get the hell out of the way, because they are about to blow your planet up (and here you thought I was done with the Star Wars references!)

The Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Afternoon Update:

Jalen Green over 20.5 points (-110 FanDuel) - Green has 23 or more points in three straight games. With the Rockets shutting down Dennis Schroder, Christian Wood, and Eric Gordon for the season, there is going to be more playing time and shots to go around. Green has one of the best positional matchups on the board today as shooting guards have performed extremely well against Sacto over the last month.

Trey Lyles over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Staying in the same game here, since it should produce a lot of fantasy stats. Houston has been gashed by big men at both the PF and C position, and Lyles is getting consistent playing time down the stretch for the Kings. He's a tad inconsistent but has dominated good matchups as we saw when he had 11-18-3 against Orlando.

Clint Capela over 26.5 points/rebounds (-115 FanDuel) - Capela gets the juiciest matchup on the board for big men against OKC. They give up boards and blocks in droves and Capela has seen his production on the rise with more shots and playing time in the absence of John Collins. Last game when Gallinari and Hunter both also sat out, Capela went 22-15 and posted 19-13 against the Warriors last weekend.

Tomas Satoransky over 5.5 assists (-120 Fanduel) - Sato has hit this in three straight games and is one of the few "pass-first" point guards left in the game. He should get six or more tonight if he continues to play around 28-30 minutes and this is a favorable matchup.

Aaron Gordon over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Gordon has been a beast lately, averaging 19-7-2.5 over his last four games. He hit this number in each game and the Pacers offer little resistance on defense.

Tyus Jones over 5.5 assists (-135 FanDuel) - Tyus continues to play well in Morant's absence and now has six or more assists in six of his last seven starts. The Spurs should compete today, so I worry less about blowout and I think he's safe for 28-30 minutes of run which puts him on pace to clear this number.

Kevin Love over 2.5 threes (+104 FanDuel) - No Mobley or Allen tonight, so Love should start and be chucking. He took 12 three-point attempts last game and hit four. He's a 38.6% shooter from deep so I like his chances of hitting three if he's going to get up that volume from deep. Oh, and Dallas has allowed the second-most made threes to PF over the last week!

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

This one is just for fun, so don't go overboard but how about a 7-team money line parlay?

The Pick: Wizards/Hawks/Grizzlies/Suns/Pelicans/Nuggets/Celtics ML line parlay (+676 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
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Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
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Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
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Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
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Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
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"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
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Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
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to Miss at Least Four Games
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Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
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Set For Main Event
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Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
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Looks For Third Win In A Row
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Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
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Looks For Third Consecutive Win
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Signs Rookie Deal
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Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

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Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
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Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
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Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
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Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
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Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
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Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
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Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

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Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
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Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
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Cameron Young

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Xander Schauffele

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Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
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Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
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Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
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Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

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Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

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Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

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Gabriel Bonfim

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Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

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Morgan Charrière

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Austen Lane

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Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
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Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
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Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
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Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
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Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
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Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
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a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

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Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
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Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
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Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
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Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
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May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
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