RADIO
Monday night was a great night for the article and a much-needed bankroll boost for yours truly! I don't even pretend to be someone who wages large sums of money on sports, but no matter the unit size, it's always nice to get a clean sweep as all of the bets in this piece hit with the exception of Tre Mann who didn't play for OKC. I went heavier on props and I mentioned that I might be doing that more often down the stretch as the games get tougher to handicap with so many players out and that may be the case again today, we'll see. With 11 games on the slate, there is no shortage of action it's simply a matter of finding some spots where we have enough data to feel confident in tonight.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 30, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 166-146-2
- Against the Spread 77-67-2
- Over/Under 34-43
- Player Props 55-37
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (-2) @ New York Knicks (223 total)
Watch out Charlotte, because the Knicks are surging! I'm sure Knicks fans are thrilled that they waited until the last few weeks of the season to start to gel and maybe it's a fluke, but R.J. Barrett is playing well and the Knickerbockers have reeled off four straight wins including some upsets of Chicago and Miami in that stretch.
The winning streak started with a road win against these Hornets. I rarely trust the Hornets to win games they're supposed to and I believe they were like seven or eight-point favorites in that game as the Knicks didn't have Julius Randle in the lineup that night.
I'm going going to overanalyze this one. New York is at home and should be favored in my opinion based on their strong recent play. Give me the home underdog here. Could this run end for the Knicks tonight? Sure, and I'll have my expectations tempered a bit, but the value here is on New York.
The Pick: Knicks ML (+105)
Orlando Magic (+3) @ Washington Wizards (219 total)
The Wizards are an interesting team to break down. They're definitely among the bottom third of teams in the league in terms of both offense and defense, but they'll occasionally beat a good team - like they did the other night when they upset the Warriors. They're 3-3 over their last six games despite not having Kyle Kuzma and there's been no indication of a rest day for their best player Krisptaps Porizingis (fingers crossed that doesn't change).
Meanwhile, the Magic are without their best player as Wendell Carter Jr. is out tonight. That tips things towards Washington quite a bit for me as Carter is the best rebounder, scorer, and helps facilitate the offense as a passer, too. Washington is on a back-to-back after losing to the Bulls last night, but that hasn't negatively impacted them this year and they play a fairly deep rotation, too.
Washington is 3-0 against Orlando this year and I have a hard time believing the Magic go on the road here and beat them without WCJ. This spread feels very coverable, I'm taking the Wizards here.
The Pick: Wizards -3 (-110)
Miami Heat (+5) @ Boston Celtics (214.5 total)
It felt gross, but I ran my initial numbers early this morning and then bet the Celtics -4.5 as they were one of the strongest bets on the board. The line has moved to five points now, but I'm still on Boston, and here's why.
No matter what you (or me) or anyone else think of the Celtics - they keep winning and they continue to defy the odds. Despite not having a superstar (sorry Tatum fans, I put him in the second tier of star players in the league), this team has really come together and plays well as a unit. What they lack in stardom, they make up for with their depth, defense, and teamwork.
Derrick White has added solid depth to the backcourt alongside Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford continues to be a steadying presence on the interior and an excellent glue guy who makes his teammates better. Boston did lose their starting center Robert Williams III, but they'll likely just slide Horford to center and Tatum to PF, which is going to be a matchup problem for opponents.
Since January 29th, this team is 23-4. How is that even possible, right? And their record against the Heat this season? They're 2-0 and have won by an average margin of 23.5 points. Miami has dropped four of their last five and seems to be scuffling at the wrong time. Jimmy Butler is yelling at his coach and Miami is trending in the wrong direction. This game should be a battle, but I like Boston to pull away and cover. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up blowing them out. This team is simply firing on all cylinders, playing with confidence, and I'd be backing them home at this point against just about anyone.
The Pick: Celtics -5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (232.5 total)
The Memphis Grizzlies are absolutely steamrolling the NBA right now. No Ja Morant? No problem! Memphis continues to bully their opponents even without Morant as they're now 18-2 on the season without him and they sport an absurd +18 net rating.
Memphis is an elite team! I'm not sure what else they need to do at this point (other than proving it in the playoffs) but in the last two weeks alone they've beaten the Nets and Bucks, crushed the Warriors, and have now won five straight.
While I love the Spurs, they're simply not on Memphis's level this year. They're 0-3 head-to-head against Memphis so far and have lost those three games by an average of 11.3 points. Jaren Jackson could miss this game, but at this point, it doesn't matter. If the Suns are the NBA Death Star, then Memphis just might be the NBA's version of the first order. You better get the hell out of the way, because they are about to blow your planet up (and here you thought I was done with the Star Wars references!)
The Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Afternoon Update:
Jalen Green over 20.5 points (-110 FanDuel) - Green has 23 or more points in three straight games. With the Rockets shutting down Dennis Schroder, Christian Wood, and Eric Gordon for the season, there is going to be more playing time and shots to go around. Green has one of the best positional matchups on the board today as shooting guards have performed extremely well against Sacto over the last month.
Trey Lyles over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Staying in the same game here, since it should produce a lot of fantasy stats. Houston has been gashed by big men at both the PF and C position, and Lyles is getting consistent playing time down the stretch for the Kings. He's a tad inconsistent but has dominated good matchups as we saw when he had 11-18-3 against Orlando.
Clint Capela over 26.5 points/rebounds (-115 FanDuel) - Capela gets the juiciest matchup on the board for big men against OKC. They give up boards and blocks in droves and Capela has seen his production on the rise with more shots and playing time in the absence of John Collins. Last game when Gallinari and Hunter both also sat out, Capela went 22-15 and posted 19-13 against the Warriors last weekend.
Tomas Satoransky over 5.5 assists (-120 Fanduel) - Sato has hit this in three straight games and is one of the few "pass-first" point guards left in the game. He should get six or more tonight if he continues to play around 28-30 minutes and this is a favorable matchup.
Aaron Gordon over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Gordon has been a beast lately, averaging 19-7-2.5 over his last four games. He hit this number in each game and the Pacers offer little resistance on defense.
Tyus Jones over 5.5 assists (-135 FanDuel) - Tyus continues to play well in Morant's absence and now has six or more assists in six of his last seven starts. The Spurs should compete today, so I worry less about blowout and I think he's safe for 28-30 minutes of run which puts him on pace to clear this number.
Kevin Love over 2.5 threes (+104 FanDuel) - No Mobley or Allen tonight, so Love should start and be chucking. He took 12 three-point attempts last game and hit four. He's a 38.6% shooter from deep so I like his chances of hitting three if he's going to get up that volume from deep. Oh, and Dallas has allowed the second-most made threes to PF over the last week!
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
This one is just for fun, so don't go overboard but how about a 7-team money line parlay?
The Pick: Wizards/Hawks/Grizzlies/Suns/Pelicans/Nuggets/Celtics ML line parlay (+676 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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