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Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (3/30/22)

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 3/30/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Monday night was a great night for the article and a much-needed bankroll boost for yours truly! I don't even pretend to be someone who wages large sums of money on sports, but no matter the unit size, it's always nice to get a clean sweep as all of the bets in this piece hit with the exception of Tre Mann who didn't play for OKC. I went heavier on props and I mentioned that I might be doing that more often down the stretch as the games get tougher to handicap with so many players out and that may be the case again today, we'll see. With 11 games on the slate, there is no shortage of action it's simply a matter of finding some spots where we have enough data to feel confident in tonight.

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 30, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!

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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today

  • Season Record 166-146-2
  • Against the Spread 77-67-2
  • Over/Under 34-43
  • Player Props 55-37
  • Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record

I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.

I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.

(click to enlarge)

 

NBA Betting Picks

Charlotte Hornets (-2) @ New York Knicks (223 total)

Watch out Charlotte, because the Knicks are surging! I'm sure Knicks fans are thrilled that they waited until the last few weeks of the season to start to gel and maybe it's a fluke, but R.J. Barrett is playing well and the Knickerbockers have reeled off four straight wins including some upsets of Chicago and Miami in that stretch.

The winning streak started with a road win against these Hornets. I rarely trust the Hornets to win games they're supposed to and I believe they were like seven or eight-point favorites in that game as the Knicks didn't have Julius Randle in the lineup that night.

I'm going going to overanalyze this one. New York is at home and should be favored in my opinion based on their strong recent play. Give me the home underdog here. Could this run end for the Knicks tonight? Sure, and I'll have my expectations tempered a bit, but the value here is on New York.

The Pick: Knicks ML (+105) 

 

Orlando Magic (+3) @ Washington Wizards (219 total)

The Wizards are an interesting team to break down. They're definitely among the bottom third of teams in the league in terms of both offense and defense, but they'll occasionally beat a good team - like they did the other night when they upset the Warriors. They're 3-3 over their last six games despite not having Kyle Kuzma and there's been no indication of a rest day for their best player Krisptaps Porizingis (fingers crossed that doesn't change).

Meanwhile, the Magic are without their best player as Wendell Carter Jr. is out tonight. That tips things towards Washington quite a bit for me as Carter is the best rebounder, scorer, and helps facilitate the offense as a passer, too. Washington is on a back-to-back after losing to the Bulls last night, but that hasn't negatively impacted them this year and they play a fairly deep rotation, too.

Washington is 3-0 against Orlando this year and I have a hard time believing the Magic go on the road here and beat them without WCJ. This spread feels very coverable, I'm taking the Wizards here.

The Pick: Wizards -3 (-110)

 

Miami Heat (+5) @ Boston Celtics (214.5 total)

It felt gross, but I ran my initial numbers early this morning and then bet the Celtics -4.5 as they were one of the strongest bets on the board. The line has moved to five points now, but I'm still on Boston, and here's why.

No matter what you (or me) or anyone else think of the Celtics - they keep winning and they continue to defy the odds. Despite not having a superstar (sorry Tatum fans, I put him in the second tier of star players in the league), this team has really come together and plays well as a unit. What they lack in stardom, they make up for with their depth, defense, and teamwork.

Derrick White has added solid depth to the backcourt alongside Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford continues to be a steadying presence on the interior and an excellent glue guy who makes his teammates better. Boston did lose their starting center Robert Williams III, but they'll likely just slide Horford to center and Tatum to PF, which is going to be a matchup problem for opponents.

Since January 29th, this team is 23-4. How is that even possible, right? And their record against the Heat this season? They're 2-0 and have won by an average margin of 23.5 points. Miami has dropped four of their last five and seems to be scuffling at the wrong time. Jimmy Butler is yelling at his coach and Miami is trending in the wrong direction. This game should be a battle, but I like Boston to pull away and cover. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up blowing them out. This team is simply firing on all cylinders, playing with confidence, and I'd be backing them home at this point against just about anyone.

The Pick: Celtics -5 (-110)

 

Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5) @ San Antonio Spurs (232.5 total)

The Memphis Grizzlies are absolutely steamrolling the NBA right now. No Ja Morant? No problem! Memphis continues to bully their opponents even without Morant as they're now 18-2 on the season without him and they sport an absurd +18 net rating.

Memphis is an elite team! I'm not sure what else they need to do at this point (other than proving it in the playoffs) but in the last two weeks alone they've beaten the Nets and Bucks, crushed the Warriors, and have now won five straight.

While I love the Spurs, they're simply not on Memphis's level this year. They're 0-3 head-to-head against Memphis so far and have lost those three games by an average of 11.3 points. Jaren Jackson could miss this game, but at this point, it doesn't matter. If the Suns are the NBA Death Star, then Memphis just might be the NBA's version of the first order. You better get the hell out of the way, because they are about to blow your planet up (and here you thought I was done with the Star Wars references!)

The Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

 

Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.

 

NBA Prop Bet Picks

Afternoon Update:

Jalen Green over 20.5 points (-110 FanDuel) - Green has 23 or more points in three straight games. With the Rockets shutting down Dennis Schroder, Christian Wood, and Eric Gordon for the season, there is going to be more playing time and shots to go around. Green has one of the best positional matchups on the board today as shooting guards have performed extremely well against Sacto over the last month.

Trey Lyles over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Staying in the same game here, since it should produce a lot of fantasy stats. Houston has been gashed by big men at both the PF and C position, and Lyles is getting consistent playing time down the stretch for the Kings. He's a tad inconsistent but has dominated good matchups as we saw when he had 11-18-3 against Orlando.

Clint Capela over 26.5 points/rebounds (-115 FanDuel) - Capela gets the juiciest matchup on the board for big men against OKC. They give up boards and blocks in droves and Capela has seen his production on the rise with more shots and playing time in the absence of John Collins. Last game when Gallinari and Hunter both also sat out, Capela went 22-15 and posted 19-13 against the Warriors last weekend.

Tomas Satoransky over 5.5 assists (-120 Fanduel) - Sato has hit this in three straight games and is one of the few "pass-first" point guards left in the game. He should get six or more tonight if he continues to play around 28-30 minutes and this is a favorable matchup.

Aaron Gordon over 23.5 PRA (-125 DraftKings) - Gordon has been a beast lately, averaging 19-7-2.5 over his last four games. He hit this number in each game and the Pacers offer little resistance on defense.

Tyus Jones over 5.5 assists (-135 FanDuel) - Tyus continues to play well in Morant's absence and now has six or more assists in six of his last seven starts. The Spurs should compete today, so I worry less about blowout and I think he's safe for 28-30 minutes of run which puts him on pace to clear this number.

Kevin Love over 2.5 threes (+104 FanDuel) - No Mobley or Allen tonight, so Love should start and be chucking. He took 12 three-point attempts last game and hit four. He's a 38.6% shooter from deep so I like his chances of hitting three if he's going to get up that volume from deep. Oh, and Dallas has allowed the second-most made threes to PF over the last week!

I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!

We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!

 

NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks

This one is just for fun, so don't go overboard but how about a 7-team money line parlay?

The Pick: Wizards/Hawks/Grizzlies/Suns/Pelicans/Nuggets/Celtics ML line parlay (+676 DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix

(click either chart to enlarge)

I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.

Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
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