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I have learned over the years that the most important thing to do in this line of work is to be honest with readers and own your losses, better known as "taking your Ls" by the younger generation.
And man, Monday was a rough night for my straight bets. I was really excited about that slate of games and things simply didn't go my way. The Jazz and Kings helped salvage the night late, but the Cavs blowing a 12-point lead with two minutes left really hurt, and if it weren't for player props (which I actually did pretty well with), it would have been an even uglier night. After a full day off for Election Day, the association is back in action tonight with 13 games and that means we simply get back up on that horse and give it our best shot again.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 28-29
- Against the Spread: 13-14
- Game/Team Totals: 5-8
- Moneyline Parlay: 5-5
- Teasers: 8-2
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (220 total)
It was hard for me to find a favorite that I really liked tonight that the spread was way off on, but I found them eventually and it's by far the Portland Trail Blazers. It looks like Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons are both probable and that Portland will have its entire starting lineup back together for the first time in two weeks. This team has been one of the better stories of the 2022 season as they are off to a 7-3 start and the fact they went 2-2 in that stretch without Damian Lillard showed that Portland has something really good going here with the rest of their roster too.
The Hornets, meanwhile, continue to be a mess and have dropped five straight games. LaMelo Ball still isn't back and their veteran leader Gordon Hayward is out yet again. Terry Rozier and company battle the best they can, but they're not likely to have enough firepower on offense (or enough defense) to hold off the Blazers tonight.
For our trend watchers, the Blazers are 8-2 ATS with a solid +5.9 point differential. They've beaten the Suns twice (once without Dame or Simons) and have quality wins against Miami and Denver too. I expect Portland to roll and this line to probably move in their direction a bit more as the day goes along.
The Pick: POR -4.5 (-110 DK)
New York Knicks (+2.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (223 total)
This is one of a few games that I have projected as "pick 'ems" in that the data shows that it could easily go either way. In those situations, I look for reasons to side with the underdog when I can and I think that's what I am going to do here by backing the Knicks.
Going against the Nets without Kyrie so far hasn't gone all that well. They trounced Washington in their first game sans Kyrie and then narrowly beat Charlotte and lost a close one to Dallas last time out when Kevin Durant missed two of three free throws at the end of regulation when he could have forced overtime.
But the Knicks were really impressive on Monday in a big 120-107 win against Minnesota and I like what I am seeing from them offensively. There were a lot of questions as to how Jalen Brunson would gel with RJ Barrett and Julius Randle, but so far it hasn't been an issue and the three of them combined for 76 of the Knicks' 120 points on Monday.
I might sound like a broken record, but KD can't do it himself every night. I am sure he will probably have another monster game and keep the Nets close in this one, but I like New York's chances of stealing this one simply because they have more depth and a far superior bench. I'll take the Knicks on the money line at plus odds here.
The Pick: NYK ML (+120 DK)
Phoenix Suns (-2.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (225.5 total)
The Suns laid an egg against the Sixers the other night as they got thumped by Joel Embiid and company on the road. CP3 got hurt and left the game early and we are starting to see that they really miss Jae Crowder now that Cameron Johnson is hurt and out for an extended period of time.
CP3 is questionable for this game, but if he can't go, the Suns have a pretty capable backup in Cameron Payne to start in his stead. Payne isn't the same level of a passer as the "Point God" Paul, but he can fill it up as a scorer, and between him, Booker, and Ayton, the Suns should still have a formidable trio of scorers.
This pick is less about confidence in Phoenix as it is really being skeptical about Minnesota. They welcome Rudy Gobert back tonight, but I am not sure it makes all that much of a difference. Minnesota has been perfectly mediocre in every way this year so far in their 5-6 start and that's pretty disappointing considering they were supposed to take a big step forward and become contenders in the West after adding Gobert to an already talented lineup.
They might still get it going, but for now, I am betting against them in the short term and I think the proven winners (Phoenix) get the better of them here. I hate having to bet the hook here at -2.5, so I will just bet the money line for slightly worse odds.
The Pick: PHO ML (-125 DK)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Utah Jazz (+3.5) @ Atlanta Hawks (226 total)
This should be a great game between two very good teams. I have been burned by picking against the Hawks two games in a row now as they've shown they're a team on the rise after all. They beat the undefeated Bucks without Trae Young and now are home favorites against the biggest upstart team in the NBA, the 9-3 Jazz.
I am going to toss the Jazz in my teaser because my model says they should be favored here, but I simply won't go against Atlanta again, especially with Trae Young looking likely to return and the Hawks being at home. My angle here is the OVER on the game total, which sits right at the league average of 226 points. I have this game projected well above average in pace (102.5 possessions) and both teams have solid offensive metrics and just average defensive metrics.
My game environment rating for this game is about the same as Memphis-San Antonio and New Orleans-Boston which have 234 and 230 point totals, respectively. That's right about where I have this one pegged, - 231.5 points, giving us a nice gap between the current total and my projection. Let's take the over and just hope for really entertaining basketball with a lot of offense rather than trying to pick this winner!
The Pick: OVER 226 (-110 DK)
I usually do a money line favorite parlay on bigger slates and then one teaser bet as well (usually a lot of underdogs, but not always).
Just know the risks involved with parlaying bets, we are increasing our potential payouts but adding more risk to every bet with every outcome that we include.
Favorite Moneyline Parlay: Boston + Portland + Dallas = (+145 DraftKings)
4.5-point Underdog Teaser: Utah +8, Houston +13.5, Indiana +10 = (+150 DraftKings)
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