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Stop worrying about your damn fantasy football lineup for just a minute and let's talk about the fact that we have a full slate of baseball games taking place today across this great nation of ours. The weather sucks here in the Mid-Atlantic (I am in South-Central Pennsylvania) as it's rained for 24 hours straight and it's going to rain all day on Sunday, too. So there will be some washouts today, but the games that do play are going to provide us some action for wagers!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, September 24, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter/X @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Joe Ryan OVER ANY NUMBER of strikeouts (??? DraftKings)
This is confusing...I know, but it was intentional to get your attention and to highlight the fact that his prop has disappeared overnight, likely due to the Angels' uncertainty about who they are starting.
I grabbed it over 6.5 last night at -150. I was expecting to wake up to it at 7.5 but with the over at even money or better. If it gets reposted, you should bet it at 7.5 as Ryan has the best matchup on the board for righties today against the K-happy Angels.
Ryan has scuffled a little lately but still has 7+ strikeouts in eight of his last 11 starts.
His teammate Sonny Gray hadn't struck out more than six hitters in over a month, yet he had eight last night in six very clean innings. Ryan is a good strikeout pitcher, but this is as much about the matchup as it is the pitcher today.
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
So this line is moving down, which might worry some folks, but I was happy to see it drop to 4.5 because I am going to pounce. At 5.5, it was certainly playable but getting over the hump from five to six strikeouts is often more difficult than we want to think when the average starter only goes 5-6 innings most nights.
E-Rod is in anything but good form right now (he had to skip a start and has been getting knocked around a bit in September), but this is a great "get right" spot for Rodriguez as the Athletics sport the worst K% over the last month at a whopping 30%.
Even if he gives up some runs, I think the strikeouts will be there today. He struck out seven against Oakland earlier this summer in only four innings. He shouldn't be on a pitch count, and he has good enough stuff to whiff the weaker Oakland hitters even if he does get touched up a bit.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Christopher Morel OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
Morel turned out NOT to be just a flash in the pan this season as some suspected, though he is absolutely a streaky hitter who can run very hot or cold for long stretches. He appears to be on a hot streak right now, having hit five of his 25 home runs this season over the last two weeks.
Morel has excelled against lefties and could end up leading off today against a pretty mediocre lefty in Ty Blach of the Rockies. Morel is sporting a .286 ISO and .357 wOBA against LHP this season. The hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley Field could boost these Cubbies' bats today, too.
Juan Soto OVER 1.5 total bases (+125 DraftKings)
Soto might be facing a lefty starter today in Drew Rom of the Cardinals, but that doesn't take me off him one bit. Rom has shown some really bad splits against lefties (small sample size be warned) and Soto is one of the best lefty-lefty hitters in baseball.
This season, Soto has a .356 wOBA against LHP -- a mark that a lot of righties wish they had. While his power numbers take a dip, he still makes really solid contact against southpaws. He also happens to be one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last month. He's just a really good hitter who is in a better spot than the books are acknowledging since they still have his odds at +125. He can get it done with an extra-base hit or multiple singles. Either way, I like our chances of cashing this one.
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