Steelers vs. Bengals Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Thursday Night - Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

October 16, 2025

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em lineups advice for Steelers vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 (2025). NFL matchups analysis and TNF starts/sits.

I am quite sure that the NFL schedulers did not expect this Week 7 Thursday Night Football game to feature two quarterbacks whose combined age is the same as Mick Jagger, but here we are. Aaron Rodgers (41 years old) and Joe Flacco (40) will face off in an AFC North battle with their teams headed in completely opposite directions in the standings.

For fantasy football purposes, there are a few gems in this game (including a resurgence for the best wide receiver alive), but also several very tough calls on borderline players. Deciding who to start and who to sit in this intriguing Thursday night matchup could help make or break your week's fantasy matchup.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all season, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should be benched. Let's dive into this Week 7 Thursday night matchup for the 2025 season. You can also check out our main Week 7 start 'em, sit 'em matchups article for all other games. Good luck in your fantasy football week, RotoBallers!

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, October 16, 8:15 PM ET

Notable Injuries:

• Calvin Austin III (WR, PIT) - Questionable - Shoulder
• Mike Gesicki (TE, CIN) - OUT - Pectoral
• Tanner Hudson (TE, CIN) - Questionable - Concussion

Steelers vs. Bengals Matchup Breakdown

While the Pittsburgh Steelers have won three straight and sit atop the AFC North standings after six weeks, the Cincinnati Bengals have now lost four straight and have the worst point differential in the entire NFL. With an improving defense after a shaky start, the Steelers seem to be finding their footing. After Joe Burrow's injury, on the other hand, Cincinnati has just fallen off a cliff.

TNF prep.

Presented by @IEL_LLC pic.twitter.com/215jQfLBlw

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 15, 2025

The Pittsburgh defense has become more like the ferocious unit of yesteryear. Through six weeks, they rank 12th in total defensive EPA per play (expected points added) at -0.01. They are especially devastating against the pass as they have the second-best sack percentage in the league and have allowed the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns.

Cincinnati's offense, on the other hand, is in the bottom three teams in the league in EPA per play, offensive success rate, interception rate, and EPA per pass. Flacco has replaced Jake Browning for the last two games and propelled them to 42 points in those games, but apart from Ja'Marr Chase, the offense looks abysmal.

Even on the road, this looks like a match-up where the Pittsburgh defense should dominate against a shaky offensive line and an immobile quarterback.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

DK Metcalf (WR, PIT)

The first three weeks of the season showed a troubling pattern. After three straight games around 10 fantasy points, it appeared Metcalf was going to be sucked into Arthur Smith's offensive black hole. But beginning in Week 4, the Steelers remembered they paid Metcalf like $150 million and started peppering him with targets. He has 21 and 17.5 half-PPR points in his last two games and is the focal point of the offense. Finally.

Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)

After a couple of weeks that put fantasy football managers in some very dark places, all is right again in the world with Chase. Chase has more than 20 half-PPR fantasy points in each of the last two games, and is now sixth overall among wide receivers in total points per game this year.

At 25, Ja’Marr Chase is putting up all-time numbers 🐅🔥 pic.twitter.com/afFqYBmbse

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 13, 2025

Chase has a 29.4% target share and is top five in receptions, receiving yards, and yards after the catch. The Pittsburgh secondary is beatable, so as long as the offensive line gives Flacco any kind of time to throw, Chase should be able to put up his numbers. Even if it's in garbage time.

Possible Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT)

The Cincinnati Bengals are a respectable 11th in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season, but digging deeper, it's easy to see why. They have allowed 13 total touchdowns to quarterbacks (sixth-most in the league), and teams get such a big lead on the Bengals that they then start running to kill the clock. Rodgers may be in the game-management mode of his career, but he does have 10 passing touchdowns in five games and is a popular streamer this week for teams who may have Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson on bye week.

Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT)

In his first game back from an injury,  Warren got 53% of the Steelers' running back snaps. He was at 80% before he got hurt, so hopefully this is a ramp-up to where he will be going forward. In that first game back, Warren had 13 touches, but was only lightly used in the passing game. Kenneth Gainwell caught six passes in that game, so Warren needs to start grabbing some of that back. Hopefully that happens in Week 7 against the Bengals, who have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.

Jaylen Warren Poised For Week 7 Breakout? https://t.co/5zA8PIooLS

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 15, 2025

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)

It's once again been maddening to roster Higgins. He didn't have more than three receptions in the first five weeks of the season, but then caught five balls for 62 yards in Week 6. I'm not sure Flacco can support two elite wide receivers the way Joe Burrow could, but Higgins is always appealing against teams that could double-cover Chase like Pittsburgh could do. He isn't anything more than a WR3 or Flex right now with Flacco, but you have to keep rolling him out there.

Chase Brown (RB, CIN)

Think about running backs like Zach Charbonnet, Kareem Hunt, and Tyler Allgeier. They all have about the same fantasy points per game as Brown this season, and this is the category of player Brown has to be in until further notice. He hasn't had double-digit fantasy points since Week 1, and the Steelers are a top-12 team against running backs this season. He is more of a flex-worthy starter in bye weeks right now, because he is still getting 55%-60% of the team's snaps.

Noah Fant (TE, CIN)

It's addition by subtraction for Fant this week at the tight end position. Hudson and Gesicki are both likely to be out for the Bengals, which opens up all the tight end snaps for Fant. Fant had four targets in Week 6, but Hudson had five of his own, and Gesicki had five targets in Week 5. Flacco also loves targeting the tight end position.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Calvin Austin III (WR, PIT)

Austin only has a 16% target share in an offense where the quarterback has an average depth of target around 5.5 yards and is 30th in the NFL in pass attempts per game. He does have a 48% air yards share for the Steelers, but is 53rd among all wide receivers in total air yards.

Calvin Austin III Picks Up Another DNP Tag on Tuesday https://t.co/UXUZ58ktNC

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 14, 2025

Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington (TEs, PIT)

Through six weeks, the three primary tight ends on Pittsburgh are TE31, TE50, and TE54 in fantasy points per game. Smith, who showed so much promise and athleticism with Miami last season, is not even atop the depth chart and has gone from 884 receiving yards in 2024 to just 89 so far in 2025. One of these guys might score, but it's impossible to predict who it is going to be.

Joe Flacco (QB, CIN)

Flacco was able to put up some points in Week 6 (18.8 fantasy points), but otherwise had three straight weeks under 10 fantasy points for the Browns and Bengals. Believe it or not, Browning is actually averaging more fantasy points per game than Flacco this season.

Andrei Iosivas (WR, CIN)

Iosivas is often the beneficiary when there is an injury to Chase or Higgins, but both are healthy right now, so "Yoshi' should be left off of fantasy rosters right now. He has an 8.8% target share and one red zone target all season.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: PIT -5.5
Over/Under: 43.5

A 5.5 spread for the Steelers implies this game would be more like PIT -8.5 or -9 if they were at home, and it is a testament to how their defense has been playing in their last three games. They have held opponents to just 44 points in the last three games, including just nine points for Flacco's old team last week against Cleveland.

Even against a weak defense, Rodgers isn't going to be asked (or expected) to air the ball out, but rather play a methodical game focused on the run game and high-completion rate targets. Flacco has been able to drag the Bengals to 21 points per game over their last two, but much has come in garbage time.

I don't think the Bengals will win this game, so it's a matter of will they cover a 5.5-point spread at home. In the end, I think T.J. Watt and company will be too overpowering for the Bengals, and the Steelers will eventually run away with it.

Give me Steelers 24, Bengals 16

The Pick: PIT -5.5, UNDER 43.5

2025 Overall Record:
Spread (4-2), Over/Under (4-2)

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