RADIO
Call me a little biased. Ok, call me a lot biased. But as a San Francisco 49ers fan who is totally not upset about the Jerick McKinnon thing, I'm most optimistic about the NFC West and all the potential that it holds for fantasy football. Even if there's a visible gap in top talent and the rest of the fantasy options, and a talent gap between the rest of the league and Seattle, the NFC West is one of the only divisions that's not loaded from quarterback down, impacting the rest of the team, but often the opposite.
No matter how optimistic you are on Jared Goff or Jimmy Garoppolo, the talent who are opening up opportunities for the players around them are often the ones carrying (Todd Gurley, David Johnson) or catching (Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Baldwin) the ball. Hell, even potentially removing a player like Baldwin from the Seattle offense may change how the team functions fantasy-wise more than removing any other player not named Russell Wilson (or given the low expectations for the team, arguably causes a similar impact.)
What you're seeing, in this division specifically, is a slew of younger coaches who are interested in playing with player roles and taking some chances. While that's generally coach speak for "We will not be making any changes into my great offense," in the NFC West that means doing things like letting Jared Goff air it out deeper than any QB not named Ben, or utilizing receivers or backs in a way that means more opportunity and more scoring potential. It's the joy of a young, fun division, and ultimately it could mean a bounty of offensive opportunity.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Los Angeles Rams
FILL IN THE BLANK: Pick __________, not _________
Broke: Cooper Kupp saw a nice increase in targets in the second half, and he's clearly Jared Goff's guy in the 2018 season
Woke: Robert Woods is the number one target in Los Angeles, and his absence made Kupp's value increase, not any other factor.
If I'm using that Twitter meme right, it's the starting argument for dumping Cooper Kupp and picking Robert Woods. Now normally, that's not a controversial statement. However, we've seen a fairly dramatic shift in ADP, putting Kupp in the 7th round of a 12-man PPR league, while Woods has stayed consistently at the 9th round. If you're drafting and find yourself taking a WR2 over the WR1 in his own offense, with less projected points... I don't even know how to talk you off that ledge.
On the flip side of that coin, keep in mind that Woods is only 26 despite feeling like he's been in the league forever, and the addition of Brandin Cooks may take away from Kupp enough that it drops him down to a WR3. With all of the articles I've written so far this season imploring fantasy players to take the WR2 in damn near every offense not situated in upper New York, it's pretty inconceivable to take a WR3 anywhere in the first ten rounds. If you believe Kupp finishes that far above both these players then, by all means, take him, but his current ADP suggests a very liberal reading of how offensive production will shake out that very little reporting seems to agree with.
Seattle Seahawks
Ok wait, hear me out, what about one of your last picks on __________
A. Tyler Lockett
B. Brandon Marshall
C. Mike Davis
D. CJ Prosise
It may not seem at first glance like Tyler Lockett is a last-pick candidate, and admittedly his ADP has been climbing from a 13th rounder to a late 11th rounder in PPR leagues, due in large factor to Doug Baldwin's injury and the potential opportunity it presents Lockett. Baldwin is already back to practice as of last week, so expect Lockett's shares to fall once again in the real last minute drafts.
But here's where knowing your league's rules may present you an advantage. Lockett just signed a nice contract extension that suggests he may be in for more regular season playing time, but it's worth remembering that Lockett will also provide kick and punt return value that may be beneficial to you in your league. Slightly prior to this writing, I got out of a draft that rewarded such production so generously, Lockett finished as the #1 WR in that format. While that represents less than 1% of leagues, having a flyer with that sort of hidden value and potential advantage may be worth rostering over a pure backup (as of this writing, WR going similar to Lockett are D.J. Moore and Anthony Miller.) In a redraft league, it certainly makes more sense to go with a guy like Lockett here, especially if your league rewards it.
Arizona Cardinals
The only rookie I don't seem to hate is _________
A. Josh Rosen
B. Chase Edmonds
C. Christian Kirk
D. Trent Sherfield
Yeah, I've gone full old-man-in-yard when it comes to rookies in this series, but Christian Kirk may be the real deal. Given the lack of a true #2 behind Larry Fitzgerald, Kirk's real obstacle is the man himself. At only 5'10'', you're looking at a primary slot receiver whose stuck behind a historically good primary slot receiver. Kirk is a 15th round guy and is great for dynasty purposes assuming that 35-year old man Larry Fitzgerald is indeed a human being and not a cyborg, and whatever production Kirk shows this year will be compounded by getting to play as a slot receiver in 2019 and beyond. Kirk is going in the right place for the right price, and if you have a last pick you can keep for a round or two more, he's definitely worth the flyer in this thin receiving corp.
San Francisco 49ers
The man to own in the backfield is ___________
A. Matt Breida
B. Alfred Morris
C. Kyle Juszczyk
My favorite team is the one team I have an inside track on, and while much of the 49ers offensive production has been sorted out by the time you read this (receivers number one and two, TE, handsome quarterback, etc) the only remaining factor is who will be the most valuable RB to own in San Francisco.
I can say that, though everyone really wanted it to be Breida time in Santa Clara, Alfred Morris is going to be the bellcow for the San Francisco 49ers in 2018. It's a name worth monitoring especially in Zero RB drafts, or in leagues where Morris doesn't see the week one numbers and a panicked owner is looking to move on. Morris may not take the lion's share in Week 1 and may edge out Matt Breida by barely double digits, but he is the back to own in this offense.
