RADIO
Ryan analyzes four fantasy football bounce-back candidates to target in FFPC best ball drafts. These players coming off poor seasons can make a fantasy impact in 2024.
Disappointment is unfortunately a large part of fantasy football. Despite the best research and intentions, we are all wrong on many players after the draft season is over and the cleats are laced up for real games. Consider Austin Ekeler in 2023. He was drafted fifth overall in most formats, but finished the year as RB28 in fantasy points per game (half PPR) and missed four games with an injury. Best ball rosters are typically more forgiving of these issues because they have larger rosters, but these disappointments will still come. Our job this year is to determine which of last year's busts will bounce back in 2024.
Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is one of the top best ball sites around in 2024. If you have played on FFPC, you have noticed slight nuances to its scoring system that must be considered when drafting best ball teams. The first scoring quirk to consider is that quarterbacks get one point for every 20 yards passing instead of the traditional 25 yards. This means pocket passers get a little more of a bump compared to other best ball tournaments where rushing quarterbacks rule. Secondly, FFPC is a tight-end premium site. That means tight ends get 1.5 points per reception, while all other skill positions receive one point.
In this piece, I will be looking at one player at each skill position you should be targeting in best ball drafts on FFPC. These players largely disappointed last year due to injuries, poor performance, and unrealized expectations, but the opportunity for a much better 2024 is there. For each player, I will include their current FFPC ADP as well as where they stand in RotoBaller's Best Ball rankings.
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Fantasy Football Bounce-Back Candidates To Target In FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
FFPC ADP: 133.6
RotoBaller Rank: 127
I could not be more in on the Atlanta Falcons this year. Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder are gone. Raheem Morris and Kirk Cousins are in. And already the team is talking about taking its offense to a new level with Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
Kirk Cousins as the new signal-caller should take this offense to heights not seen since the glory days of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White. It's easy to forget, but Cousins was on a career-best pace with Minnesota last season and was QB6 in total fantasy points through Week 7 before injuring his Achilles in Week 8. Playing again in a dome with elite weapons, Cousins should at least regain the passing volume from his time in Minnesota.
Dotted in the corner 🎯 @KirkCousins8 x @DrakeLondon_ pic.twitter.com/yngprJTQMJ
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) June 4, 2024
Last season, Atlanta was 25th in total pass plays per game and 29th in passing play percentage (just 52%). The Falcons were far and away the worst team in pass rate over expectation in 2023 and just simple regression should improve their passing game. But they will make a concerted effort to get the ball in the air more. I'm not guaranteeing Cousins -- based on those coveted spike weeks in best ball -- will be a top-10 quarterback. I just won't be shocked at all when it happens.
Honorable Mention: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
FFPC ADP: 14.2
RotoBaller Rank: 13
The 2023 season was pretty much a disaster for Jonathan Taylor. He missed the first four games of the season "rehabbing a high ankle sprain," but was really all about wanting a new contract. After he got that new contract, he missed four more games with a wrist ligament injury that kept him out until the last three weeks of the season.
However, when he was healthy, Taylor showed he is still one of the best running backs in the game. His 15.6 fantasy points per game was 12th among backs, and he scored eight times in 10 games, including five in the final four games.
I, for one, can’t wait for the Jonathan Taylor revenge tour next season!
— Matt FF Dynasty 🏈 (@MattFFDynasty) February 9, 2023
Now just 25 years old, fully healthy, and with Zack Moss shipped off to Cincinnati, this is once again Taylor's backfield. All we really need to see is what Taylor did in the Week 18 game against Houston to be reminded what he can be with a full workload. In that game, he rushed the ball 30 times and caught the ball twice for 196 total yards and a touchdown.
The contract isn't an issue anymore, and defenses are going to have to pick their poison with Richardson and Taylor this year (the duo has never played an NFL game together). Both are capable of breaking off huge runs, and we might just see Taylor more involved in the passing game as well.
Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
FFPC ADP: 55
RotoBaller Rank: 49
From 2020-2022, Tee Higgins saw increases in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and touchdowns. After a 75-1,041-7 year in 2022, we know Higgins was looking to put up an exclamation point in 2023 ahead of a potentially massive contract extension and big payday from the Bengals.
That, unfortunately, did not happen. Injuries and ineffectiveness hampered Higgins all year, leading to just 42 catches for 656 yards and five scores. Higgins had just two games all year with more than five catches, and just two with over 100 receiving yards.
Now on a one-year, $21 million contract, Higgins has to try to prove his value as a true alpha receiver again if he wants the lucrative, long-term deal he has been seeking. Even with a healthy Ja'Marr Chase in the fold in 2024, Higgins should be able to get back to elite status.
For one, Joe Burrow should return healthy after his midseason wrist injury. Despite the roller-coaster season, Higgins was still a top-20 wide receiver in yards per reception and air yards share. He remains one of the best downfield threats in the game, and with such a limited target tree in Cincinnati, a bounce back for Higgins seems inevitable.
Honorable Mention: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans
FFPC ADP: 104.2
RotoBaller Rank: 136
Our recency bias with Dalton Schultz probably props up the theory that Schultz did not have a good year in 2023. It is true that after Schultz missed Weeks 12 and 13 with injuries, he was not the player he was in the first half of the season. In his last four regular-season games plus two playoff games, Schultz had a total of 260 yards and one touchdown. As C.J. Stroud became the passing tide that lifted all Houston boats, Schultz was largely left behind because of injury and a slow recovery time.
Texans TE Dalton Schultz when asked about the Texans offense:
“It’s great to have a fully loaded clip, metaphorically speaking” 🤣🤣🤣
(🎥 @HoustonTexans) pic.twitter.com/1kAAW62LcC
— Nick Schwager (@NickSchwagerNFL) May 21, 2024
What we can not forget with Schultz, however, is how productive he was pre-injury and how much Stroud relied on him. In the eight games before he was injured, Schultz caught 34 balls for 417 yards and five touchdowns. Over a full season, that's a pace of 64 catches for 788 yards and nine scores.
If Schultz can get that kind of production, he will provide value far exceeding that of his TE15 ADP. Schultz should remain a primary weapon for Stroud in this high-octane offense and is a perfect tight end to grab later in best ball drafts as part of a Houston stack.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
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