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Fantasy Football ADP Report: 2023 FFPC Draft Trends

Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

While many fantasy football players don’t start thinking about their annual drafts until August, high-stakes competitors have already started to participate in their league drafts. The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), a premier high-stakes platform for those seeking a significant challenge, is hosting league drafts regularly in all types of formats.

All fantasy players can learn a lot from FFPC drafters by studying the Average Draft Position (ADP) Reports. For the purposes of this article, I focus on the latest FFPC FantasyPros Championship ADPs for analysis, as that format features head-to-head play and some similarities to mainstream fantasy football leagues.

Do keep in mind that the FFPC is a TE premium format, as tight ends are awarded 1.5 points for a reception. Also, high-stakes competitors often tend to be more aggressive on players they like and will push them up the board in attempts to make potential league-winning picks.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024 fantasy football drafts:

 

Fantasy Football ADP Reports: The Latest FFPC Insights

Bijan Robinson (ADP of 9.2 overall)

As is the case on many fantasy football platforms, Robinson is the third and final running back being drafted in the top 12. Once Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are off the board, many drafters will focus on the best wide receivers available. Robinson, however, can be a difference-maker when you consider Atlanta ranked second in run/pass ratio last season and used the No. 8 overall pick on Robinson in an era where the running back position has been clearly devalued.

The Falcons may throw some more this year, but Robinson will factor in the receiving game, too. Don’t hesitate to draft Robinson if he falls to you inside the top 10.

Nick Chubb (14.6)

Savvy fantasy leaguers in the FFPC seem sold on the idea that Chubb is going to dominate the touches in Cleveland's backfield much more than he did in recent seasons playing with Kareem Hunt. The Browns offense should also be much improved with Deshaun Watson having a full preseason completed when he opens the regular season as the starter from the outset. Chubb is the fourth RB off the board in the latest FFPC drafts covered here.

Breece Hall (30.3)

The second-year Jet is being drafted at the end of the RB1 pool, showing that FFPC leaguers are willing to take the shot on Hall despite some uncertainty about how he will fare early in the season. If Hall performs close to his best self later in the year, waiting for Hall to post better results could be a league-winning move, although it’s obviously risky.

Alexander Mattison (60.6)

I am liking Mattison as a good possible value in this range. It is obvious that he is ticketed for heavy volume in Minnesota, and he should be the main goal-line runner for the Vikings. While Mattison is not as explosive as Dalvin Cook was, the Minnesota front office saw fit to clear the way for him to start, and I take that as a signal that Mattison may outperform expectations.

Mattison should at least be a solid fantasy RB2. According to StatMuse, Mattison has rushed for 90 yards in four of six career starts while totaling five TDs from scrimmage in those six starts.

Miles Sanders (62.8)

I am also targeting Sanders as a value play in this range. I expect him to take on a heavy workload and he may be utilized more as a receiver out of the backfield in Carolina. Sanders will be a very important support player for his rookie QB, taking pressure off him as a rusher and working as a safety receiver when needed. I don’t expect the Panthers' offense to be awful, either.

James Conner (75.4)

The Arizona offense will be terrible until Kyler Murray returns, but at this ADP, it’s hard to pass on an RB that is certain to handle most of the carries for his team. There can be hope for Conner to deliver better numbers later in the season when Murray returns.

De'Von Achane (106)

While he will work in a committee, the super-speedy Achane fits perfectly into the fast-paced Miami offense and he should be able to deliver some valuable spike weeks.

Tyreek Hill (6.1)

If Tua Tagovailoa plays close to a full season, I would not be surprised to see Hill finish as the No. 1 WR. If you are the type of high-stakes competitor who drafts in many leagues, taking Hill as the top WR off the board could prove to be a winning move in a very competitive field. Heck, Hill led the AFC with 1,710 receiving yards last season.

Garrett Wilson (15.6)

When you consider that the Jets lack an ideal No. 2 WR, you may want to think about actually targeting him higher than WR9 overall. In terms of volume and production, Wilson could be Aaron Rodgers’ new version of Davante Adams.

Tee Higgins (25.2)

He fell from 15.7 to 14.9 PPR points per game in 2022. Drafting Higgins at this spot is a taking the chance that he will bounce back to his 2021 levels this season, but it’s very possible that Ja’Marr Chase will significantly overshadow him frequently. Higgins is not a bad pick at his current ADP, but I don’t view him as an upside play.

Christian Watson (45.2)

After an impressive rookie year, Watson is a risk/reward target. His production obviously hinges on the performances of quarterback Jordan Love. As with Mattison, though, this is a situation where the team brain trust is showing confidence in a new starter without giving him much competition.

Michael Pittman Jr. (75.4)

There doesn’t seem to be much optimism about Pittman when you consider the ADP. Yet he did catch 99 passes last season, which ranked 10th in the NFL, and if Anthony Richardson progresses well, Pittman might make more regular trips to the end zone after catching just four TD passes in 2022.

Brandin Cooks (86.6)

I am totally in on Cooks as a WR3 value in all formats. He is the fitting No. 2 WR that Dallas has lacked for some time, and I expect the Cowboys to take advantage of his presence, as both the head coach and the QB are on the hot seat. Dak Prescott is the best QB Cooks is set to work with since his 2017 season in New England.

Skyy Moore (108.6)

Moore is one of my favorite WR picks in this range. There has been much buzz about him stepping forward in his second season with the Chiefs. Kadarius Toney is notoriously injury-riddled, and if he misses any time, Moore can seize a big opportunity in the Kansas City passing game.

Darren Waller (50.2)

Taking the chance on Waller as a potential top-5 TE this season could be another winning move, especially in a TE premium format like the FFPC. He is clearly set to be the Giants’ No. 1 receiving target and Waller just has to avoid the injuries that have nagged him in the past to potentially return to fantasy prominence at the position.

Dalton Schultz (111.6)

He was a trusted target on key downs in Dallas, and Schultz was one of the biggest TE prizes of the offseason. I see him as a top target for a rookie QB, and Schultz is a safer bet than most of the Houston WRs to post quality totals.

Tyler Higbee (117)

He has lacked upside and has been overrated in the past. The Rams, though, don’t have a comfortable No. 2 WR, and Higbee is an established target for Matthew Stafford. It is possible that Higbee could outperform his ADP this season.

Mike Gesicki (153.1)

One of my top value plays at TE, Gesicki was misused in Miami and now goes to a team that lacks threatening WRs and has often strived to feature the TE. I am not worried about the presence of Hunter Henry, because if he produced as hoped previously, there wouldn’t have been a need for the Patriots to bring in Gesicki.

Justin Fields (55.8)

I have him ranked fourth in my latest QB rankings on RotoBaller.com. Use promo code KING for a discount on the RotoBaller Season Pass. No other QB came close to Fields’ 1,143 rushing yards last season and his pass-catching crew has obviously improved with D.J. Moore as the new No. 1 WR. Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney can now be more comfortable as secondary targets for Fields.

Deshaun Watson (85.1)

FFPC players are showing some confidence in Watson, drafting him inside the top 10 at QB. As I said previously, he will now have the benefit of an uninterrupted flow from the preseason to the regular season. The last time we saw Watson play a full campaign in 2020, he finished as a top-five fantasy QB.

Daniel Jones (135.9)

The Giants QB finished in the top 10 in total points and points per game last season, and his receiving group has been modestly upgraded. If you wait on a QB outside of the top 12, Jones is a very tempting pick.

Geno Smith (165)

He still isn’t getting enough respect, as Smith is being drafted as QB18, even behind Russell Wilson. He apparently has some skeptics among high-stakes players, but Smith will work with arguably the best-receiving crew in the NFC with the addition of top rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

According to playerprofiler.com, Smith was third in the NFL in deep ball accuracy rating and fifth in deep ball completion percentage in 2022, and he will be out to prove that last season was no fluke.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

 



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