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First base fantasy baseball sleepers, targets to draft in the mid rounds. Potential 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued 1B to target in drafts.
Welcome back to our first base middle-round targets and value picks for 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. The countdown to Opening Day is on. At RotoBaller HQ, we are providing all sorts of fantasy baseball content and are back with another article from our mid-round value positional series. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players who can provide a great return on value. Today, we look at the first base position, which the talent pool can quickly drop after the top 10 are off the board.
We did the research and found five middle-round first base options for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2025 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2025 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2025 Draft Kit.
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Jake Burger, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers first baseman Jake Burger followed up his breakout in 2023 with a similar 2024, slashing .250/.301/.460 with 29 homers in 579 plate appearances for the Miami Marlins in 2024. Power is his calling card in fantasy, and his 18.4% HR/FB was supported by his 12.3% rate of Brls/BBE, 96 mph average airborne exit velocity, and 115.5 max exit velocity. Burger also lifts the ball with a 40.6% FB%, taking full advantage of his HR/FB.
Jake Burger slashed .279/.339/.562 with 19 HR and a .901 OPS after the ASB.
Only 4 players had more HR than Burger after the ASB:
Ohtani
Judge
Suarez
SantanderOnly 8 players had a higher ISO than Burger after the ASB:
Judge
Ohtani
Carroll
Soto
Guerrero
Yordan
Suarez
Witt pic.twitter.com/q7wT3nvP7H— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) January 17, 2025
Burger was traded to the Texas Rangers for Echedry Vargas, Max Acosta, and Brayan Mendoza this offseason. The move from Miami to Texas should also improve his home run total, as Texas's 116 HR factor for RHB is much better than Miami's 86. Unfortunately, Burger figures to lose runs and RBI as he goes from a featured piece of Miami's lineup to the seventh hitter for the Rangers.
His average might also decline since Miami's 103 1B factor for RHB is higher than Texas's 96. The 25-year-old's 15.2% LD% and 12% IFFB% doom him to sub-.300 BABIPs regardless of the home park, and his 25.9% K% might increase unless Burger improves his 14.9% SwStr%.
Still, there aren't many proven 30-HR bats available at Burger's ADP of 126.30. He's a great option if you need power at the midpoint of your draft.
-- Rick Lucks - RotoBaller
Paul Goldschmidt, New York Yankees
There can be no doubt that New York Yankees first baseman Paul Goldschmidt's production has been declining as he enters the final years of his career. The one thing Goldschmidt has remained is healthy. He's played 617 games over the last four seasons, which is tied-ninth most in the majors.
The Yankees desperately need some consistency at first base, so his signing should help both parties. According to Statcast's ballpark factors, Yankees stadium is the second-best home run ballpark for right-handed hitters (RHH). Goldschmidt's 22 homers in 2024 were his lowest in a full season since 2014 (when he only played 109 games).
Goldschmidt didn't have any problem with his quality of contact last year, as evidenced by his 49.6% HardHit% (92nd percentile). After back-to-back seasons in which Goldschmidt stole 11 bases, there's no reason to believe we don't see a 25-homer and 10-steal season this year.
Even if Goldschmidt hits in the bottom part of the lineup, the Yankees should put up enough runs to ensure Goldschmidt is a solid contributor in all the counting stats. As a later-round corner infield option, Goldschmidt should be able to defy Father Time for one more season and provide fantasy value at his 176 ADP.
-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Triston Casas is looking for a return to full health in 2025 for the Boston Red Sox. Casas missed significant time in 2024 with a serious and painful rib injury. He returned in mid-August after missing almost three months with the injury and ended the season with 243 plate appearances.
Triston Casas (9)
2-Run Home RunOpponent: Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Shane Baz
Date: 9/17/24 pic.twitter.com/gXLH3H82De— Red Sox Home Runs (@RedSox_HR) February 16, 2025
Casas hit .241 with 13 home runs, 32 RBI, 28 runs, and zero stolen bases. Big things were expected in 2024 from Casas after hitting .263 with 24 home runs in 502 plate appearances in 2023. Casas strikes out at a high clip, 31.7% in 2024, but he also walks often, with a 12.3%BB%.
If the skills coalesce and health is there, Casas could easily hit 30-35 home runs with a full season of plate appearances. His current ADP is 107, which puts him in the early eighth round of snake league drafts, just outside the top 10 first basemen. If you are willing to accept some risk, Casas could pay off in 2025.
-- Mike Carter - RotoBaller
Christian Walker, Houston Astros
Veteran first baseman Christian Walker signed a three-year, $60 million contract this winter with the Houston Astros. Walker will surely hit in the middle of a rebuilt Houston lineup. In 2024, Walker hit .251 with 26 home runs, 84 RBI, 72 runs scored, and two stolen bases.
Christian Walker signs with the #Astros. 3-year deal, $60M.
-3 straight seasons with 25+ HR’s
-Gold Glove caliber 1B
-3 season streak with a 3.0+ WAR
-119 wRC+ in 2023 and 2024
#MLB pic.twitter.com/4KwkPHhREQ— Coach SA (@CoachSA_) December 20, 2024
After playing in 160 and 157 games the two seasons prior, he appeared in only 130 games in 2024, mostly due to an oblique strain he suffered in late summer. Walker has become one of the more reliable hitters in the game; he should be good for about a .250 batting average, 30 home runs, 90+ RBI, and 80+ runs. He may even chip in a few steals as well; he has had as many as 11 in one season.
His current ADP of 97 plants him at the end of the seventh round, and the eighth first baseman off the board. Walker should hit cleanup behind slugger Yordan Alvarez and in front of catcher Yainer Diaz. Walker looks to be a safe bet to post another typical season even after moving to a new city and franchise.
-- Mike Carter - RotoBaller
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino was on the way to a 100-plus RBI season last year before a broken thumb ended his season prematurely, the second consecutive campaign cut short after a torn labrum torpedoed 2023 just 61 games in.
The left-handed hitter still finished 20th in the majors with 97 RBI in 131 games, a 114 RBI full-season pace that would have put him at fourth in all of baseball. The problem for fantasy is that for someone who had a high 87.5% Contact% and low 12.8% K%, you'd hope for a higher BA or OBP, but he's recorded just a .257 BA and .318 OBP over the last two seasons combined.
A low BA can be offset with big home run totals, but with a career barrel rate of 7.6%, don't expect many more than the 19 HR he hit last season even if the 27-year-old manages to play a full season.
Hitting behind Bobby Witt Jr. and ahead of a still-productive Salvador Perez is a good place to be, but there isn't much upside here, even at his low NFBC ADP of 114, which is right where RotoBaller ranks him.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
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