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Dylan Crews' fantasy baseball prospect outlook, bust potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now.
In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a professional.
Last, I try to tie all of that information together in a fantasy-biased forecast for dynasty leagues.
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Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes matched real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Dylan Crews
Evolution of College Plate Profile
Not liking his pre-Draft financial offers in the summer of 2020, Crews instructed MLB teams not to select him and later honored his commitment to enroll at LSU. He played a fair amount that COVID summer closer to home in the Orlando-based wood bat Florida Collegiate Summer League (FCSL). Owing to LSU baseball playing deep into the next 2 summers he would only log another 12 wood bat plate trips (all in 2021 FCSL) during his college career.
In publicly sharing my thoughts on best options the Pittsburgh Pirates had with the first pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, I offered many reasons why Dylan Crews failed to meet first overall selection standards after playing three full NCAA D1 seasons. Among the more important were that the player who most every public domain prospecting website had atop their Draft prospect rankings at that time had mostly failed that D1 spring to generate respectable volumes of the specific batted ball profile events listed earlier that promote hit (AVG) and extra bases (ISO) production.
Besides that, I also knew that last half dozen big-bonused college position players who had similarly weak batted ball fundamentals like Crews' in their NCAA Draft season were struggling to hit pro pitching. But would producing some of the top exit velocities and better AVG and ISO outcomes on batted balls that NCAA D1 campaign prove just as insignificant for him as a pro as it had for those prior bonus babies?
Crews won college player of the year honors from a variety of sources that summer. Along with eventual 1-1 selection starting pitcher Paul Skenes and friends, he led the LSU squad to the 2023 NCAA D1 championship. In the weeks before the 2023 MLB Draft, some flags were raised on him when it became clearer that Pittsburgh Pirates had no interest in taking him with that 1-1 pick. Then came media leaks that he did not want to join the Pirates for reasons that they stood to be too averse to slow in getting him to MLB. Most every public domain prospecting source moved him out of the top Draft prospect rankings #1 spot either in the week or days before the event, but I recall none dropping him lower than #3 spot.
Crews was taken as the 2nd pick by Washington Nationals and signed for a fuller slot bonus of $9 million, or $1 million more than any other position player in that 2023 Draft received.
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
After a brief tune-up with Nationals Florida Complex League affiliate, Crews was conservatively assigned to the lowest full-season A affiliate.
There he put up amazingly big 99 Batted Ball Profile fundamentals and 100 AVG and ISO Ratings on batted balls within a sample of 71 PA in which BB+HBP and K Ratings registered curiously low and in the 30s. Nationals were impressed enough to bypass the High A affiliate and assign him to AA. The next 85 PA against much more advanced pitching competition saw BB+HBP and K Avoid Ratings rise shy of a full standard deviation but Batted Ball Profile cratered to 1 in wake of that 99 in A with the AA AVG and ISO Ratings each in the single digits. It was during that probably premature 2023 AA assignment when the his pro plate profile problems first surfaced.
In a 2024 210 PA repeat of AA, Crews posted an improved half plus batted ball profile, which was owed mostly to an 87 LD Rating and a 100 Pull GB Avoid, that produced half to full plus AVG and ISO Ratings. As before in A, weak link in the full 2024 AA plate profile had again flipped to non-batted-ball outcomes per 36 BB+HP and 52 K Avoid Ratings. But by then management was comfortable enough with the batted balls to send Crews up to AAA, where again the batted ball profile wheels would fall off per a double minus 2 Batted Ball Profile that was partially offset by K Rating spiking to near plus.
Though the gloomy larger-sample AAA batted ball profile spoke against a 2024 MLB debut, Nationals likely were reminded of their pre-Draft commitment to get Crews to MLB swiftly and added him to their early September MLB roster. In no surprise, the 2 AAA Batted Ball Profile paved the way to a 1 MLB Batted Ball Profile that generated only 6 AVG and 25 ISO Ratings. Solid-for-a-debut BB+HBP and K Avoid Ratings kept the MLB Overall just north of minus.
Out-of-contention Nationals started him every game so that he could accumulate as much experience as possible without exhausting his rookie eligibility for 2025. And they stuck to that plan despite almost zero bat output after a louder debut week. Nationals went into spring expecting to Opening Day roster Crews in any scenario in which he did not flop offensively in MLB spring games.
The first week plus went well as he flashed an above-average spray-hit mix and rarely whiffed against mostly MiLB pitchers. By middle and especially nearer end of MLB spring games the batted ball profile gains waned as MLB pitchers increasingly occupied mound and strikeouts began to pile up. Despite the big end of camp K surge, Nationals stuck to the plan of trying to get Crews wire to wire in MLB without a lengthier AAA demotion during 2025 and keep future Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick channels open.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Despite long being a plus sprinter and one who now registers top sprint speeds that rate circa 95rd percentile by MLB player standards, Crews rarely attempted stolen bases in college. Offensive running graded out very poorly in the 2023 post-Draft debut as he registered just a 9 Offensive Running Rating combined over the Rookie to A to AA trek.
Per the extreme increase of Offensive Running Rating from 3 in 2023 AA to 95 in 2024 AA, a very logical guess would be that Crews realized in aftermath of big 2023 AA batted ball struggles that he needed to contribute to his future teams far more via offensive running channels than he had previously imagined. And when the 2024 AAA batted ball woes got still worse in MLB, he ratcheted up stolen base aggression. Relative success to that end is likelier what fueled the 2024 as Baserunner Rating rising from around average in MiLB to near plus in MLB.
Until data instructs differently, we should project Dylan Crews as a plus offensive runner who will need to sustain such over a longer spell in order to boost his viability as an MLB everyday player. The college player who seldom ran on account of hitting so often is now a pro player who must run often on account of so seldom hitting.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
Dylan Crews consistently received 60 (plus) grades and 70 (plus plus) grades for hitting ability on the 20 to 80 scout scale before the 2023 Draft and still gets some 60s today. Yet, it is far more likely that he should have been evaluated as a circa 40 (full minus) hitter all along.
At almost five full years removed from high school graduation, Crews looks equal parts overassigned and overmatched in the early 2025 MLB play. The forecast ahead is not so rosy. Among what you almost never see in the earlier plate profile evolution tables is a row in which Crews rates well at Overall Rating against each of Oppo- and Same-Handed Pitchers. That such only happens against one or the other, else neither, does not set up to be favorable for an everyday lineup future.
Fantasy players should evaluate Crews as a legs-first outfielder who flashes occasional power but may not have much positive fantasy value ahead relative to league outfielder peers beyond bottom-of-the-order stolen bases. Best advice he could receive today would be to shift from an exit-velocity-rooted swing approach to more of a spray-hit one featuring line drives, up-the-middle-ish groundballs, and mostly pull-third outfield flyballs among a smaller sample of outfield flyballs. Yes, the 2023 national college player of the year per many outlets should already be bunting for hits semi-regularly as another step toward producing batted ball events that make his plus legs more runs-relevant.
For the sake of 2025 MLB, he and legs-first center field teammate Jacob Young are already redundant in the everyday lineup and should seldom co-start daily for lack of surplus offense from the rest of the Nationals lineup. If it is Crews who survives to get those starts, he does not figure to be moving into the top of the lineup anytime soon to increase his potential runs scored or stolen bases totals.
Crews has already logged many a MLB regular season plate appearance that he was unprepared to receive. Due the magnitude of the signing bonus commitment, one should expect Nationals to continue to extend him MLB plate appearances that arguably should go to a more qualified candidate for a good while longer if not throughout his organizational tenure. This would not portend to bode well for his dynasty league owners.
Current projection: minus hit, half minus power, half minus walks + hit-by-pitches, average to half plus strikeout avoidance, plus offensive running, half plus outfield defense.
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