
Articles

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?
Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]
Matthew Collier
Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?
I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]
Matthew Collier
Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?
Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]
Matthew Collier
Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?
Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]
Matthew Collier
Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]
Matthew Collier
Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus
2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]
Matthew Collier
Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus
Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]
Matthew Collier
Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]
Matthew Collier
Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]
Matthew Collier
Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]
Matthew Collier
Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]
Matthew Collier
Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]
Matthew Collier
Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]
Matthew Collier
Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]
Matthew Collier
Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]
Matthew Collier
Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]
Matthew Collier
Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]
Matthew Collier
Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]
Matthew Collier
Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]
Matthew Collier
Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]
Matthew Collier
Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]
Matthew Collier
Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]
Matthew Collier
Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]
Matthew Collier
Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]
Matthew Collier
Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals
If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]
Matthew Collier
Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings
In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]
Matthew Collier
Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB
Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]
Matthew Collier
Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024
Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]
Matthew Collier
Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (NL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024
The three 2023 NL Cy Young finalists were Blake Snell of the Padres, Logan Webb of the Giants, and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. In 2022, Sandy Alcantara took home the trophy, while Max Fried and Julio Urias were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down the seasons of each finalist in the […]
Matthew Collier
Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (AL Central)
The American League Central is the focus of the third installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]
Matthew Collier