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Matthew Collier - RotoBaller

46 articles

Matt Collier first played fantasy baseball in a 1990 American League West college friends league framed around Peter Golenbock's "How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball". Within a year as a fantasy sophomore and college junior he won a regional American League adults league and actual money. He continued to play regional leagues and national service contests for a few years before retiring to pursue a full-time career as a research scientitst and developer of arthritic hip and knee replacements. In the early 2010s, Matt gradually returned focus to baseball as a player analyst rather than fantasy player and soon developed the FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes) pitcher evaluation system, which as of 2025 is applied to MLB, all affiliated MiLB leagues, NCAA D1 and D2, and select collegiate summer leagues. A companion model that evaluates batters has been developed and used since the truncated/lost 2020 season. As a player analysis expert Matt now uses the output from these pro and amateur evaluation models to advise a mix of agents, baseball players, coaches, and other organization or program staff besides fantasy baseball players.

Articles

Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Blake Mitchell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

Blake Mitchell made for a more interesting member of the 2023 MLB Draft prep class to evaluate as a two-way player who was selectable as either a catcher or right-handed starting pitcher. He attended the August-September 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex, where he was […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kendall George Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

From August through September of 2022, I watched Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospect Kendall George play around 10 games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]


Alan Roden - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]


Xavier Isaac - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]


Jett Williams - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]


Justin Crawford - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]


Drake Baldwin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]


Chase Meidroth - MLB Prospects, Rookies, Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings

Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]


Roman Anthony - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]


Matt Shaw - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, MLB News

Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]


Chandler Simpson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]


Luke Keaschall - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospect, Draft Sleepers

Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Max Clark - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top Prospects for 2026

Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]


Kristian Campbell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]


Dylan Crews - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]


Jacob Wilson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - icon rotoballer

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]


Gavin Stone - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals

If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings

In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]


Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB

Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]


Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Drake Baldwin

Could Return During Braves Next Homestand
Garrett Crochet

Diagnosed With Low-Grade Lat Strain
Tetairoa McMillan

Dealing With Foot Injury During OTAs
Aaron Donald

Considering Coming Out of Retirement?
PGA

Russell Hensley Coming to Ohio on the Heels of Latest Victory
Drake London

Falcons Agree on Four-Year Extension
Michael Wilson

Will be "Closer to the Core" in Z Receiver Role
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Will Play the X Role for Cardinals
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking for Better Iron Play at Memorial Tournament
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Continue Dominance at Muirfield Village
Ludvig Aberg

a Great Fit for Muirfield Village
Isaiah Hartenstein

Hopeful to Stay with Oklahoma City
Luguentz Dort

Wants to Remain with Thunder
Mitchell Robinson

is Questionable for Game 1
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Has Contract Guaranteed for 2026-2027 Season
Oso Ighodaro

Gets Guaranteed Contract for Next Season
NAS

Chris MacFarland Joins Predators as President and General Manager
VAN

Canucks Name Manny Malhotra as New Head Coach
Brendan Gallagher

to Leave Canadiens This Offseason
Patrik Laine

Looking Forward to Free Agency
Jeremy Lauzon

Returns to Action Tuesday
Zach Werenski

Wins 2025-26 Norris Trophy
Aaron Judge

Out on Tuesday With Rib/Shoulder Injury
Adam Randall

Well-Positioned for Dynasty Success in Baltimore?
Nicholas Singleton

Could Be the Running Back of the Future in Tennessee
Bryce Lance

Is Bryce Lance Currently Undervalued by Dynasty Managers?
Mike Washington Jr.

Carries Dynasty Sleeper Appeal Entering 2026
Adonai Mitchell

Is Adonai Mitchell Still Worthy of a Dynasty Roster Spot?
Tony Pollard

Dynasty Stock Rising in Improving Tennessee Offense?
Josh Hader

Set to Return from Injured List on Tuesday
Chris Brazzell II

a Year 1 Breakout Candidate in Carolina?
Ja'Kobi Lane

a Great Fit for Ravens, Potential Steal in Rookie Drafts
Josh Jacobs

Back at Practice on Tuesday
Max Klare

Crowded Tight End Room Impacting Max Klare's Dynasty Stock?
Romeo Doubs

Still a Solid Dynasty Option in New England?
CFB

SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
CFB

Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
CFB

Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
CFB

Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
Makai Lemon

Set for Major Role in Debut Season?
CFB

Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
Drake Maye

Does Latest Addition Put Drake Maye Among the Upper Echelon of Fantasy Elite?
Jalen Hurts

Could Face Regression After Loss of Top Pass Catcher
DeVonta Smith

Poised for WR1 Role in the Aftermath of Trade?
Daniel Jones

Participating in 7-on-7s
Akshay Bhatia

Needs the Driver to be True in Ohio
Aaron Rai

Primed to take on the Memorial Tournament
J.J. Spaun

Rebounded at Charles Schwab Challenge
Xander Schauffele

One to Watch This Week in Ohio
Hideki Matsuyama

Putter Could be Vital at the Memorial
Nicolai Hojgaard

Rust Concerns at Muirfield Village
Ryan Gerard

Surfaces After Long Cold Stretch with Top 10 Result
Wyndham Clark

May Struggle at the Memorial Tournament
Elly De La Cruz

to Miss 2-4 Weeks of Action
Chase Burns

is Scratched Due to Illness
Deiveson Figueiredo

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Song Yadong

Gets Second-Round Submission Win
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Alonzo Menifield

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Scores First-Round Knockout Win
Cameron Smotherman

Suffers Third Loss In A Row
Edwin Arroyo

Reds Promote Top Infield Prospect Edwin Arroyo, Viewed as Priority Pick Up Ahead of MLB Debut
Kai Asakura

Earns His First UFC Win
Elly De La Cruz

Placed on IL with Right Hamstring Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Earns the first Nashville Cup Series Victory of his Career on Sunday
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Earns First Career Podium Finish at Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Scores A Solid Top-10 Finish at Nashville
Kyle Larson

Top-10 Streak at Nashville Ends after Late Flat Tire Spin
Elly De La Cruz

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Tyler Reddick

Is One of the Top Favorites to Win at Nashville
Kyle Larson

May Continue his Top-10 Consistency at Nashville this week
Christopher Bell

Is One of the Top Competitors for the Win at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Is A Must Start for Nashville DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Nashville DFS Lineups
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Nashville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar

Is Likely to have Another Solid Result at Nashville
NASCAR

Should Fantasy Players Roster Bubba Wallace at Nashville?
Chris Buescher

Is A Decent All-Around DFS Option for Nashville Lineups
Daniel Suarez

is Likely to Drop Positions during the Cracker Barrel 400
Garrett Crochet

Suffers Setback, Likely to Undergo MRI for Lat Tightness
Denny Hamlin

Could Denny Hamlin Dominate at Nashville?
Ryan Blaney

Is a DFS Tournament Option at Nashville
Ty Gibbs

Don't Overlook Ty Gibbs at Nashville
Joey Logano

Could Show Life at Nashville
Ross Chastain

Needs a Good Run at Nashville
Chet Holmgren

Fails to Step Up in the Season Finale
Cason Wallace

Ends Postseason with Strong Showing
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Caps MVP Season with Game 7 Exit
Stephon Castle

Continues Postseason Run with 16 Points
Julian Champagnie

Shines in Series-Clinching Win
De'Aaron Fox

Provides Secondary Punch in Game 7 Triumph
Victor Wembanyama

Earns Conference Finals MVP in Spurs' Game 7 Win
NBA

Warriors Prioritize Depth Around Returning Steve Kerr
Donovan Mitchell

Remains Cleveland's Top Priority
Adou Thiero

Remains a Lakers Development Project
NBA

76ers Hire Mike Gansey as President of Basketball Operations
NBA

Chicago Bulls Explore Kevin Young as Coaching Candidate
Kyrie Irving

Reports He's Nearing Full Strength in ACL Recovery
Lane Hutson

Posts a Power-Play Assist in Game 5 Loss
Cole Caufield

Nets a Power-Play Goal in Season-Ending Loss
Seth Jarvis

Closes Out East Finals With Multi-Point Game
Logan Stankoven

Notches Three Points in Big Game 5 Win
Taylor Hall

Racks Up Three Points in Series-Clinching Win
Frederik Andersen

Remains Stellar as Hurricanes Clinch Finals Berth
Jacob Gonzalez

is Heading to the Big Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Mitchell Robinson

Plans to Play in Game 1 After Finger Surgery
Ajay Mitchell

Ruled Out for Game 7
Jalen Williams

Unavailable in Decisive Game 7
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez is Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Deiveson Figueiredo

Set For UFC Macau Main Event
MMA

Yadong Song Returns At UFC Macau
Alonzo Menifield

An Underdog At UFC Macau
Zhang Mingyang

Set For UFC Macau Co-Main Event
Tallison Teixeira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Cameron Smotherman

Looks To Bounce Back
Kai Asakura

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
CFB

Faizon Brandon In Position to Start Week 1
CFB

Dane Weber Commits to Cal
CFB

Joey McGuire Attempts to Add Texas to Schedule
CFB

Mike Leach on 2027 College Football Hall of Fame Ballot
CFB

Maryland, Baylor Schedule Home-and-Home
CFB

Taron Dickens Decommits From North Carolina
MLB

MLB Proposes Hard Salary Cap as Part of Next CBA
Kenley Jansen

Tigers Place Kenley Jansen on Injured List With Pelvic Inflammation
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
MON

Lane Hutson Struggles in Game 4 Loss
CAR

Logan Stankoven Nets Eighth Postseason Goal
CAR

Sebastian Aho Pots Game-Winner on Power Play
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Tallies Two Helpers in Impressive Road Win
CAR

Shayne Gostisbehere Records Two Assists in Game 4 Win
CAR

Frederik Andersen Establishes Hurricanes New Postseason Shutout Record
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