
Articles

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]
Matthew Collier
Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]
Matthew Collier
Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]
Matthew Collier
Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]
Matthew Collier
Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]
Matthew Collier
Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]
Matthew Collier
Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]
Matthew Collier
Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]
Matthew Collier
Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]
Matthew Collier
Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]
Matthew Collier
Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]
Matthew Collier
Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]
Matthew Collier
Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus
To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]
Matthew Collier
Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals
If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]
Matthew Collier
Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings
In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]
Matthew Collier
Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB
Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]
Matthew Collier
Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024
Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]
Matthew Collier
Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (NL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024
The three 2023 NL Cy Young finalists were Blake Snell of the Padres, Logan Webb of the Giants, and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. In 2022, Sandy Alcantara took home the trophy, while Max Fried and Julio Urias were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down the seasons of each finalist in the […]
Matthew Collier
Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (AL Central)
The American League Central is the focus of the third installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]
Matthew Collier
Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (NL Central)
The National League Central is the focus of the fourth installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]
Matthew Collier
Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (NL East)
The National League East is the focus of the second installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]
Matthew Collier
Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (AL East)
The American League East is the focus of the first installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (NL West)
In the sixth and final installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select National League West pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (NL Central)
In the fifth installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the '22 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select National League Central pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (NL East)
In the fourth installment of a six-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select 2023 National League East pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL West)
In the third installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select American League West pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL Central)
In the second installment of a six-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select 2023 American League Central pitchers have evolved over time and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent […]
Matthew Collier
MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL East)
In the first installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the '22 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select '22 American League East pitchers have evolved over time and use that information to forecast their MLB futures. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent […]
Matthew Collier
Bobby Miller: MLB Prospects Dynasty Pitcher Analysis for Fantasy Baseball
Welcome back RotoBallers to my deep dive on Bobby Miller. In this Dynasty Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Prospects series, I will focus on key pitching fundamentals as quantified by my FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) evaluation system (my RotoBaller debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology). Every plate appearance is sorted into one of […]
Matthew Collier
Jack Leiter: MLB Prospects Dynasty Pitcher Analysis for Fantasy Baseball
Welcome back RotoBallers to my deep dive on Jack Leiter. In this Dynasty Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Prospects series, I will focus on key pitching fundamentals as quantified by my FaBIO (Fielding and Ballpark Independent Outcomes) evaluation system (my RotoBaller debut article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology). Every plate appearance is sorted into one of […]
Matthew Collier