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Matthew Collier - RotoBaller

44 articles

Pitcher analyst who leans heavily on a self-developed FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes evaluation system, which as of 2022 is applied to MLB, all affiliated MiLB leagues, NCAA D1 and D2, and select collegiate summer leagues. Professional background involves research and development of arthritic knee replacements.

Articles

Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]


Alan Roden - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]


Xavier Isaac - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]


Jett Williams - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]


Justin Crawford - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]


Drake Baldwin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]


Chase Meidroth - MLB Prospects, Rookies, Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings

Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]


Roman Anthony - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]


Matt Shaw - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, MLB News

Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]


Chandler Simpson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]


Luke Keaschall - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospect, Draft Sleepers

Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Max Clark - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]


Kristian Campbell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]


Dylan Crews - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]


Jacob Wilson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - icon rotoballer

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]


Gavin Stone - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals

If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings

In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]


Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB

Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]


Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]


Logan Webb - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Draft Sleepers

Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (NL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

The three 2023 NL Cy Young finalists were Blake Snell of the Padres, Logan Webb of the Giants, and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. In 2022, Sandy Alcantara took home the trophy, while Max Fried and Julio Urias were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down the seasons of each finalist in the […]


Cody Morris - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects News

Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (AL Central)

The American League Central is the focus of the third installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]


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Interested in Playing for Steelers
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Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
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a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
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Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
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A Favorite At UFC 317
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Looks For His Third Win In A Row
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Returns At UFC 317
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An Underdog At UFC 317
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Looks To Bounce Back
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Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
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