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Matthew Collier - RotoBaller

44 articles

Pitcher analyst who leans heavily on a self-developed FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes evaluation system, which as of 2022 is applied to MLB, all affiliated MiLB leagues, NCAA D1 and D2, and select collegiate summer leagues. Professional background involves research and development of arthritic knee replacements.

Articles

Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]


Alan Roden - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]


Xavier Isaac - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]


Jett Williams - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]


Justin Crawford - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]


Drake Baldwin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]


Chase Meidroth - MLB Prospects, Rookies, Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings

Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]


Roman Anthony - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]


Matt Shaw - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, MLB News

Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]


Chandler Simpson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]


Luke Keaschall - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospect, Draft Sleepers

Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Max Clark - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]


Kristian Campbell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]


Dylan Crews - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]


Jacob Wilson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - icon rotoballer

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]


Gavin Stone - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals

If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings

In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]


Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB

Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]


Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]


Logan Webb - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Draft Sleepers

Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (NL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

The three 2023 NL Cy Young finalists were Blake Snell of the Padres, Logan Webb of the Giants, and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. In 2022, Sandy Alcantara took home the trophy, while Max Fried and Julio Urias were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down the seasons of each finalist in the […]


Cody Morris - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects News

Top Starting Pitcher Prospects - Impact Fantasy Baseball Rookies for 2023 (AL Central)

The American League Central is the focus of the third installment of a six-part series focused on pitching fantasy baseball prospects who are better positioned from a developmental standpoint to contribute meaningfully in 2023 MLB games. Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model. Let us begin with individual […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Ashton Jeanty

to be Part of Committee Backfield?
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Christian McCaffrey

Takes Part in Mandatory Minicamp
Jordan Watkins

has Been Standing Out
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Jacob Cowing

on the Rise
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Demarcus Robinson

a Frequent Target This Spring
Dee Winters

has Been Impressive This Spring
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

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Cody Garbrandt

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Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Aaron Judge

Out for First Time All Season
Kodai Senga

Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Rafael Devers

has Been Playing Through Groin Strain
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carlos Santana

Hits Grand Slam on Wednesday
Alec Bohm

Homers, Drives in Four on Wednesday
Clarke Schmidt

Strikes Out Seven in Win on Wednesday
Hunter Goodman

Homers, Doubles Twice on Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
Chase Elliott

is One of the Most Favored DFS Options of the Week for Michigan
William Byron

May be A Top Threat to Win at Michigan
Kyle Busch

is Difficult to Recommend for DFS Lineups at Michigan
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Qualifies Ninth For the FireKeepers Casino 400
Alex Bowman

What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Alex Bowman at Michigan?
Austin Cindric

Should Austin Cindric be Considered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Should Shane Van Gisbergen Be Rostered For Michigan DFS Lineups?
John Hunter Nemechek

Is A Solid Value Option For Michigan DFS Lineups
Zane Smith

Is Zane Smith Worth Rostering Outside of Tournament Lineups at Michigan?
Todd Gilliland

Is A Decent Value Option for Michigan DFS Lineups
Ryan Blaney

One of the Leading DFS Contenders, but Might Be Slightly Overpriced
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