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Matthew Collier - RotoBaller

46 articles

Matt Collier first played fantasy baseball in a 1990 American League West college friends league framed around Peter Golenbock's "How to Win at Rotisserie Baseball". Within a year as a fantasy sophomore and college junior he won a regional American League adults league and actual money. He continued to play regional leagues and national service contests for a few years before retiring to pursue a full-time career as a research scientitst and developer of arthritic hip and knee replacements. In the early 2010s, Matt gradually returned focus to baseball as a player analyst rather than fantasy player and soon developed the FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes) pitcher evaluation system, which as of 2025 is applied to MLB, all affiliated MiLB leagues, NCAA D1 and D2, and select collegiate summer leagues. A companion model that evaluates batters has been developed and used since the truncated/lost 2020 season. As a player analysis expert Matt now uses the output from these pro and amateur evaluation models to advise a mix of agents, baseball players, coaches, and other organization or program staff besides fantasy baseball players.

Articles

Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Blake Mitchell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

Blake Mitchell made for a more interesting member of the 2023 MLB Draft prep class to evaluate as a two-way player who was selectable as either a catcher or right-handed starting pitcher. He attended the August-September 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex, where he was […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kendall George Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

From August through September of 2022, I watched Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospect Kendall George play around 10 games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]


Alan Roden - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]


Xavier Isaac - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]


Jett Williams - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]


Justin Crawford - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]


Drake Baldwin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]


Chase Meidroth - MLB Prospects, Rookies, Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings

Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]


Roman Anthony - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]


Matt Shaw - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, MLB News

Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]


Chandler Simpson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]


Luke Keaschall - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospect, Draft Sleepers

Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Max Clark - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top Prospects for 2026

Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]


Kristian Campbell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]


Dylan Crews - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]


Jacob Wilson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - icon rotoballer

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]


Gavin Stone - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals

If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings

In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]


Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB

Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]


Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

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Matti Schmid Looks to Keep Recent Momentum Going at TPC Craig Ranch
Brooks Koepka

a High Upside Play at CJ Cup ByronNelson
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Eagles Offense to Borrow From Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay in 2026?
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Saints Haven't Offered a Contract to Taysom Hill
Kayshon Boutte

Working Out Away From the Team
Lamar Jackson

Expected to Return to OTAs Soon
Dalton Kincaid

Taking Part in OTAs This Week
Josh Allen

"Good to Go" for Offseason Workouts
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Yandy Diaz Exits Early on Tuesday After Being Hit By Pitch
Rashee Rice

to Miss Two Months After Clean-Up Surgery on his Knee
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Returns to Starting Unit Tuesday
OG Anunoby

Starting on Tuesday
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May Remain in Motown
Jalen Duren

Pistons Eager to Keep Jalen Duren
Chris Kirk

Continues Search For Putting Form at TPC Craig Ranch
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Jason Kidd Fired as Mavericks Head Coach
De'Aaron Fox

Officially Listed as Questionable for Game 2 Against Thunder
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking to Shake Off Poor Major Showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Joel Dahmen

is of No DFS Consideration This Week in Dallas
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is Not The Fun DFS Play He Used to Be
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Is Tank Bigsby a Worthy Dynasty Stash Entering 2026?
Hunter Henry

Profiles as a Dynasty Sell-High Candidate Entering 2026
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to Make Season Debut on Friday Against Rays
Matthew Golden

Can Matthew Golden Re-Establish His Dynasty Value in 2026?
Jalen Coker

a Prime Buy-Low Dynasty Target
Dak Prescott

Remains a High-Floor Dynasty Quarterback
CeeDee Lamb

Is CeeDee Lamb's Dynasty Value Poised to Rise in 2026?
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Joe Brady Likes What he's Seen From Keon Coleman
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Hitting it Off With Todd Monken?
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Not Present for First OTA Practice
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Michael Penix Jr. Splitting First-Team Reps at OTAs
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Tests Positive for Marijuana, Violating his Probation
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Says he'll be Ready for Week 1
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Present for Start of OTAs This Week
Malik Washington

an Affordable Trade Target in Dynasty Leagues
Drake Baldwin

Braves Place Drake Baldwin on Injured List With Oblique Strain
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Ezavier Crowell has Immediate Opportunity at Alabama
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Mark Bowman a Day 1 Impact Player for USC?
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Bill Belichick Says Relationship with First North Carolina Team "Wasn't Great"
Alex Caruso

Erupts for 31 Points in Game 1 Loss to Spurs
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Kemario Taylor a Breakout Candidate at Quarterback
Jalen Williams

Productive in Comeback Game
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Trinidad Chambliss the Undisputed Top SEC Quarterback Entering 2026?
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Records First Double-Double of Postseason
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Rocco Becht The "Unifier" of Penn State's Roster
Stephon Castle

Opens Conference Finals With Double-Double
Dylan Harper

Makes Outstanding Two-Way Impact in Game 1 Win
Victor Wembanyama

Dominates Game 1 Against Thunder
Mattias Samuelsson

Picks Up an Assist in Season-Ending Loss
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Nets Fourth Postseason Goal
Jakub Dobes

Records 37 Saves in Game 7 Win
Lane Hutson

Contributes Power-Play Assist in Game 7 Victory
Nick Suzuki

Extends Road Point Streak
Alex Newhook

Scores Series-Clincher in Overtime
Jackson Holliday

Orioles Reinstate Jackson Holliday From Injured List on Monday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Reinstate Ronald Acuna Jr. From Injured List on Monday
Jose Altuve

Astros Put Jose Altuve on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Larry Nance Jr.

is Questionable for Game 1 on Tuesday
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is Probable for Tuesday's Game 1
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is Cleared for Game 1
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Jamahl Mosley Agrees to Become Pelicans Next Head Coach
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Going on Injured List With Back Injury
Tage Thompson

Can Match Franchise Record With Another Multi-Point Game
Nick Suzuki

Seeks More Road Success Monday
Lane Hutson

Riding a Five-Game Assist Streak Into Game 7
Filip Gustavsson

Needs Offseason Surgery
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Reinstated and Starting on Monday Against Twins
Melquizael Costa

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 117
Arnold Allen

Bounces Back
Daniel Santos

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
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Dohoo Choi Wins His Third Consecutive Fight
Malcolm Wellmaker

Suffers His Second Loss In A Row
Juan Diaz

Scores Second-Round Submission
Christian Edwards

Defeated At UFC Vegas 117
CFB

Transfer Running Back Arnold Barnes Visiting Iowa State on Monday
Modestas Bukauskas

Gets Split-Decision Win
Jhostynxon Garcia

Expected to Join the Pirates on Tuesday
Tobias Harris

Goes Cold in Game 7 Loss
Quinn Hughes

Open to Signing Extension This Offseason
Jalen Duren

Finishes Game 7 with Quiet Line
Cade Cunningham

Endures Cold Shooting Night Sunday
Joel Eriksson Ek

Misses Second Round Due to Heel Injury
Sam Merrill

Catches Fire in Game 7 Win
Jonas Brodin

Sits Out Round 2 Due to Toe Injury
Sam Malinski

Practices Fully Sunday
Josh Manson

Rejoins Practice
Colt Emerson

Mariners Promoting Top Prospect Colt Emerson to Major Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Fantastic First Season Continues With Two More Homers
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Dazzles With 13-Strikeout Complete Game on Saturday
Blake Snell

to Undergo Elbow Surgery on Tuesday
Clay Holmes

Could Miss Around Three Months
Jose Altuve

Exits After Swing
Corey Seager

Absent With Back Spasms on Saturday
Jeremy Lauzon

Misses Saturday's Practice
Mark Stone

Doesn't Practice Saturday
Josh Manson

Misses Practice, Considered Day-to-Day
Brent Burns

Day-to-Day Ahead of Conference Finals
Cale Makar

Considered Day-to-Day
Trevor Story

Hits the Injured List With Groin Injury
Blake Snell

Likely to Need Elbow Surgery
Kyle Schwarber

on a Heater, Hits Two More Homers to Take Major-League Lead
Clay Holmes

Suffers Fractured Fibula on Friday Night
Blake Snell

Heads to 15-Day Injured List
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Julian Sayin Looking To Build Off Of Strong Debut Season
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College GameDay Set for First Three Weeks
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Jeremiah Smith Aiming For Ohio State Receiving Records
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Keshaun Singleton Projects as Auburn's WR1
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Jeremiah Cobb Impresses New Auburn Staff
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Alberto Mendoza Very Likely to Start for Georgia Tech
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Charles Woodson Jr. Commits to Michigan
Melquizael Costa

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Main Event
Arnold Allen

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 117
Daniel Santos

Set For UFC Vegas 117 Co-Main Event
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Dohoo Choi Returns At UFC Vegas 117
Juan Diaz

Set To Make His UFC Debut
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Looks To Bounce Back
Christian Edwards

Set For His UFC Debut
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
CFB

Virginia Tech Lands Commitment from Four-Star QB Peter Bourque
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