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Matthew Collier - RotoBaller

46 articles

Pitcher analyst who leans heavily on a self-developed FaBIO (Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes evaluation system, which as of 2022 is applied to MLB, all affiliated MiLB leagues, NCAA D1 and D2, and select collegiate summer leagues. Professional background involves research and development of arthritic knee replacements.

Articles

Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Blake Mitchell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

Blake Mitchell made for a more interesting member of the 2023 MLB Draft prep class to evaluate as a two-way player who was selectable as either a catcher or right-handed starting pitcher. He attended the August-September 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex, where he was […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kendall George Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus (2025)

From August through September of 2022, I watched Los Angeles Dodgers outfield prospect Kendall George play around 10 games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Sal Stewart Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Cincinnati Reds infield prospect Sal Stewart is due up first in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. The still-evolving batted ball profile casts the righthanded batter as a purer hitter who will be biased toward producing batting average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Colt Emerson Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

I watched Colt Emerson play about a dozen games in Florida from August 2022 through September 2022. First came four USA Baseball 18-Under (18U) National Team Training Camp intrasquad contests at the Twins facility. After making the final roster for the subsequent World Baseball and Softball Confederation 18U Baseball World Cup, he played in a […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Aidan Miller Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Stash?

Phillies prospect Aidan Miller first caught my ear while watching a batting cage session quartet that included now Tigers prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark during the August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training/Cut Camp at the Twins complex site in Fort Myers, Florida. Audibly and easily, Miller packed the loudest bat […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cole Young Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Waiver Wire Pickup and Stash?

Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Termarr Johnson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, […]


Alan Roden - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Alan Roden Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

2022 MLB Draft signee Alan Roden was not up for prophylactic 40-man-rostering ahead of any Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 MLB season, but a strong spring catapulted him onto the Blue Jays' Opening Day roster as their starting right fielder. He was optioned to Triple-A on May 6th, after no longer getting consistent […]


Xavier Isaac - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Xavier Isaac Fantasy Baseball Prospect Outlook - Dynasty Fundamentals Focus

Es,Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect Xavier Isaac is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw and filmed him in the Florida Complex League just after the Draft, Isaac showed good grasp of […]


Jett Williams - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jett Williams Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams […]


Justin Crawford - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Justin Crawford Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Philadelphia Phillies outfield prospect Justin Crawford is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class. Crawford is seldom discussed without references to his father, Carl, one of the top elite-speed-with-some-power lefty-batting outfielders of the last several decades. […]


Drake Baldwin - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Drake Baldwin Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

A spring training injury to incumbent starting catcher Sean Murphy opened a door for Drake Baldwin to not just make the Braves' 2025 Opening Day roster but also serve as the primary backstop until Murphy returned in mid to late April. In this article, we will first trace the evolution of Baldwin's offensive plate profile since his 2020 […]


Chase Meidroth - MLB Prospects, Rookies, Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Rankings

Chase Meidroth Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After spending the entirety of 2024 with the Red Sox's Worcester Triple-A affiliate, Chase Meidroth would soon become the most major-league-ready of four prospects dealt in December to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet. Dating back to a breakout summer 2021 collegiate wood bat league stint, the forte of Meidroth at the plate has long […]


Roman Anthony - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Roman Anthony Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets. However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Ben Williamson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his recent selection to the major league roster of the Seattle Mariners, Ben Williamson becomes who I believe to be the fifth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class. Long a strikeout avoider, Williamson increasingly hit in the fourth NCAA Division 1 (D1) season of 2023 and over an immediate […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Bryce Eldridge Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Bryce Eldridge traveled an unusual path to becoming a Giants slugging, if not also hitting, prospect. He attended the end of August 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex as a starting pitcher who was, by then, relegated to one-inning relief stints for workload reasons. He […]


Matt Shaw - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, MLB News

Matt Shaw Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

As a collegian, third baseman Matt Shaw of the Chicago Cubs impressed the FaBIO batter evaluation model more during wood-bat summer league play than he did in his three NCAA seasons. How do the professional plate profiles compare to the amateur precedents? What percentage of his minor league circuit peers would you guess that he beat […]


Chandler Simpson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Chandler Simpson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Rays recently selected the minor league contract of wiry sprinter-outfielder Chandler Simpson, who immediately becomes an MLB must-watch offensive runner when he is the batter or on base while a teammate fills the box. While media types often reference the triple-plus scout scale speed grades, my model, featured in this article, objectively quantifies Simpson's 2024 […]


Luke Keaschall - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospect, Draft Sleepers

Luke Keaschall Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

With his selection to the major league roster of the Minnesota Twins, Luke Keaschall becomes who I believe to be the sixth 2025 MLB rookie position player from the 2023 MLB Draft class (another two position players from the class lost rookie status during 2024). A longer run of broadly strong plate fundamentals dates back […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Kevin McGonigle Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Max Clark - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Top Prospects for 2026

Max Clark Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers center field prospect Max Clark play around a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern […]


Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Stashes, MLB Rookies Call-Ups Sleepers

Cam Smith Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

On the eve of the 2024 MLB Draft, Cam Smith seemed to be a draft-eligible sophomore needing a major league batted ball profile makeover. How did his plate profile evolve from 2023 Florida State freshman to 2024 Cubs minor leaguer to 2025 Astros MLB spring training non-roster invitee? What must he do to survive as […]


Kristian Campbell - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Kristian Campbell Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Red Sox rookie infielder-outfielder Kristian Campbell first tripped the wires of the FaBIO batter evaluation model not long after his completion of a long 2022 summer spent in the wood bat Northwoods League. That summer and the subsequent spring as an NCAA Division 1 redshirt freshman would represent the entirety of his college baseball experience. […]


Nick Kurtz - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Nick Kurtz Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

After writing up five 2025 MLB rookie position players from the college ranks of the 2023 or 2024 MLB Draft classes (Jacob Wilson, Dylan Crews, Kristian Campbell, Matt Shaw and Cam Smith) in a similar fashion to what follows, I had planned to do the same for several other top prospect position players from that […]


Dylan Crews - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Dylan Crews Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

Nationals rookie right fielder else center fielder Dylan Crews has been under the microscope of the FaBIO batter evaluation model for many years now. In this piece I first outline how his plate fundamentals have evolved from college to now MLB play. And then I dive deeper into analysis of his offensive running as a […]


Jacob Wilson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups - icon rotoballer

Jacob Wilson Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Prospect Fundamentals Focus

To this point in my RotoBaller writing, I have only discussed the application of the FaBIO model to pro and college pitchers. But in the interim, I have been using a similar model for analyzing college batters, and in the past year, such work has spilled over to the same model for pro batters. Let […]


Gavin Stone - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Spotlight on MLB Spring Training Pitcher Fundamentals

If ever there was a time to ignore runs and hits and shift attention more directly onto pitching fundamentals at the core level, MLB spring training just might be it. Blinding sun and skies and stadium-unobstructed winds can turn sure outs into hits. Arizona infield surfaces tend to play rock-hard relative to Florida ones. Minor […]


Jacob deGrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Picks

Top 300 MLB Starting Pitcher Rankings: Fundamentals-Based Ratings

In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors. To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we […]


Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Getting to Know Yamamoto, Imanaga, Matsui, and Other NPB Pitchers New to MLB

Perhaps never before have so many pitchers made the leap from Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to MLB as this offseason. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (now with Los Angeles Dodgers) and Shota Imanaga (now with Chicago Cubs) were the big fish, but they were hardly alone as MLB clubs in general seem increasingly eager to sign foreign league […]


Reviewing Recent Cy Young Finalists (AL Edition) - Starting Pitcher Outlooks for 2024

Our three 2023 AL Cy Young finalists were Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, and Sonny Gray of the Twins. In 2022, Justin Verlander returned from an entire missed season to claim the award, while Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were the runners-up. In this article, I will break down […]


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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

William Nylander

Rejoins Maple Leafs Lineup Monday
Austin Reaves

Sidelined On Monday
Luka Dončić

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Josh Hart

Questionable Against Wizards
Mitchell Robinson

to Miss Monday's Matchup for Rest
Zach LaVine

to Play Monday Despite Questionable Tag
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Dennis Schroder Available for Kings on Monday Night
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Keaton Wallace

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Edwin Diaz on the Open Market This Winter
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Nearly Steals Phoenix Race
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Diagnosed with Broken Foot
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Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
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Cleared for Contact in Practice
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Scores First-Round TKO Win
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Exits Arena Sunday in Walking Boot
Ante Delija

Suffers His First UFC Loss
CFB

Dylan Raiola Suffers Season-Ending Injury
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

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Themba Gorimbo

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Jayden Daniels

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Jeremiah Wells

Gets Back In The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Remains Undefeated
Jayden Daniels

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Jayden Daniels' Left Arm, MRI to Come
Jaelan Phillips

Gets Dealt to Eagles for a Third-Round Pick
Isaac Dulgarian

Cut By UFC Following Submission Loss
Daniel Frunza

Still Winless In The UFC
Charles Radtke

Dominates Daniel Frunza
Allan Nascimento

Gets Submission Win
Philipp Kurashev

Stays Hot on Sunday
Cody Durden

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Lucas Raymond

Extends Point Streak With a Goal
Jake Guentzel

Notches Two Points as Lightning Continue Winning Streak
Leo Carlsson

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Jonathan Huberdeau

Guns Down Flyers
Matthew Schaefer

Has Historic Multi-Goal Game
Jaylen Warren

Records First Career Two-Touchdown Game in Week 9 Win Over Colts
Michael Pittman Jr.

Leads Colts With Nine Catches in Week 9 Loss at Pittsburgh
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Continues Historic Pace, Racks Up 129 Yards in Week 9 Win
Tory Horton

Catches Two Touchdowns in Week 9 Win at Washington
Sam Darnold

Nearly Flawless in Dominant Sunday Night Win at Washington
Jayden Daniels

Suffers Gruesome Left-Arm Injury on Sunday Night
Kyren Williams

Goes Over 100 Rushing Yards, Scores in Dominant Win Over Saints
Davante Adams

Continues Red-Zone Dominance in Week 9 Win
Dalton Kincaid

Leads Bills in Receiving Yards in Week 9 Win
Geno Smith

Throws Four Touchdown Passes in Week 9
DJ Moore

Scores Two Touchdowns, Involved in Several Ways Sunday
Kyle Monangai

Capitalizes on Expanded Role in Week 9
Matthew Stafford

Adds Four More Touchdowns in Sunday's Win
Brock Bowers

Snags Three Touchdown Passes in Grand Return
Brian Thomas Jr.

Injures Ankle in Victory Against Las Vegas
Puka Nacua

Injures Ribs Sunday, Could Have Returned
Kevin Porter Jr.

Suffers a Knee Injury, Out at Least Four Weeks
Quinn Hughes

Returns to Practice Sunday
Roman Josi

Moved to Injured Reserve
Max Scherzer

Doesn't Plan on Retiring
Michael King

Becomes Free Agent After Declining Mutual Option
Ayo Dosunmu

Sidelined for Rematch Versus the Knicks
Cole Smith

to Miss 3-6 Weeks
Walker Kessler

to Undergo Further Testing on Injured Shoulder
Ryan Reaves

Placed on Injured Reserve
NYI

Max Shabanov Not Close to Returning
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Getting the Start on Sunday Night
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Available Versus Utah
Tyson Foerster

Won't Play Sunday
LaMelo Ball

Won't Play on Sunday Night
Sean Couturier

Returns to Flyers Lineup Sunday
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Named World Series MVP
Alex Bowman

Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
Noah Gragson

Should DFS Players Roster Noah Gragson At Phoenix?
Erik Jones

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
Connor McDavid

Records Three Assists in Saturday's Win
Michael McDowell

an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
Vladimir Tarasenko

Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
Nick Suzuki

Collects Two More Apples
Timothy Liljegren

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Nick Cousins

Injured on Saturday
Christopher Tanev

Leaves on Stretcher Saturday
Chase Briscoe

Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
Austin Dillon

Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option
Connor Brown

Won't Play on Saturday
Shohei Ohtani

to Start Game 7 of World Series
Alejandro Kirk

X-Rays Come Back Negative on Alejandro Kirk's Hand
Alejandro Kirk

Goes for X-Rays After Being Hit on the Hand
Gleyber Torres

Undergoes Sports-Hernia Surgery
Bo Bichette

Not Expecting to Need Offseason Knee Surgery
George Springer

Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
David Onama

Set For UFC Vegas 110 Main Event
Steve Garcia

Returns At UFC Vegas 110
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Set For Co-Main Event
Ante Delija

In Search For His Second UFC Win
Themba Gorimbo

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 110
Jeremiah Wells

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Arizona State Quarterback Sam Leavitt Out for the Season
Isaac Dulgarian

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Frunza

Looks For His First UFC Win
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
CFB

Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series

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