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Roman Anthony's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
Roman Anthony was a popular choice for the top position player prospect in baseball on the 2025 preseason lists of many ranking outlets.
However, as I explain here, his prospective MLB offensive production includes relatively more uncertainty and volatility due to an extreme reliance on outlier batted ball traits for success at the plate. More specifically, his hits and extra bases per batted ball in the two most recent minor league seasons have far exceeded what a player with his (substandard) batted ball profile fundamentals typically generates.
For these reasons, investment in his future at a lofty price tag may not be the wisest position for dynasty fantasy players. Let's take a deeper look to explain why that will be the case.
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Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
MLB Prospect Analysis: Roman Anthony
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
As a 2022 MLB Draft prospect, Anthony was mainly lauded for the power he flashed on the summer 2021 prep showcase circuit. Red Sox steered him down to their 79th overall pick spot with the promise of a $2.5 million bonus that came out almost $1.7 million over the slot value for that spot.
The 88 plate appearances over a two-level post-Draft debut produced almost no ISO (extra bases) on batted balls as a direct offshoot of so few OFFB or Pull OFFB among them. Quite contrary to pre-draft scouting reports, Anthony had instead established himself as an expert avoider of the K and its batted ball cousin, the IFFB.
While the lefthanded batter hardly struck out against same-handed pitchers, his BB+HBP and Batted Ball Profile Ratings against them each registered in the low single digits. He mainly produced inconsequential contact against southpaws.
Anthony returned to the Low-A affiliate to open the 2023 season. Over 202 PA, BB+HBP soared to double plus (97) with K Avoid not quite plus (79). Some smaller Batted Ball Profile gains were made. Else, he remained a very low-launch IFFB avoider who was too short on LD, Pull OFFB, and Pull GB Avoid to produce much AVG or ISO on Batted Balls. Same-handed pitchers' outcomes were again poorer, this time inclusive of K Avoid.
But the bat would awaken beyond loudly over the next 245 PA of 2023 taken in High-A, where he effectively swapped about one and a half standard deviations of K Avoid for about three standard deviations more LD and AVG on Batted Balls (100 Ratings at each of LD and AVG). Despite only 19 OFFB and 4 Pull OFFB Ratings, Anthony had also managed to produce a 100 ISO on Batted Ball Rating.
The three-stop 2023 campaign ended with 44 more plate trips in Double-A, where each of BB+HBP and K Avoid registered near double plus. Batted Ball Profile rated above average with a low-launch hit-over-power skew that produced much more AVG than ISO.
Key gains made during the 2023 MiLB season included that Anthony hit LD quite frequently and translated the resulting better all-around hit fundamentals into plus to double-plus hits (AVG) on Batted Balls. He had also established himself as a nearly double-plus generator of BB+HBP to further boost on-base percentage.
Anthony logged 376 PA in Double-A to open his 2024 season, and over that span, all three of BB+HBP, K Avoid, and Batted Ball Profile dropped sharply versus the end of 2023 cameo in the same league. On one hand, Anthony had produced AVG and ISO Ratings on Batted Balls in the range of plus to double-plus. On the other hand, he had achieved those results by way of a batted ball profile that was so short on LD and Pull OFFB that it beat only two percent of batted ball profiles of league batting qualifiers.
Batted Ball Profile improved somewhat over the 164 PA finale in AAA, though it continued to rate subplus. AVG was again much higher (99) than would be expected per the Path to Batted Ball Profile marks, with ISO (45) rating more pedestrian. Both BB+HBP and K Avoid were about a standard deviation higher in Triple-A than they had been in 2024 Double-A.
By the end of 2024, Anthony had profiled as an above-average walker and average strikeout avoider, who was an outlier in being able to produce hits more often than extra bases, even when the launch and spray of his batted balls were not conducive to such outcomes.
Anthony received a more rigorous litmus test of 56 plate trips during the 2025 MLB Spring Training games. He rated double plus at BB+HBP, above half minus at K Avoid. Batted Ball Profile rated circa half minus (28) with LD the lone Path to Batted Ball Profile mark that beat an average 50 score. Over these games and in contrast to what mainly had transpired from High-A through Triple-A, Anthony did not produce much (30) AVG or (42) ISO on Batted Balls.
Anthony began his professional career in 2022 as a batter who was very difficult to strike out or pop out, but struggled in most other aspects. From virtually out of nowhere, hitting fundamentals and hits and extra bases outcomes per batted ball all peaked at the 100th percentile in a 245 PA later 2023 stint in High-A. High-caliber hit fundamentals have not been spotted since the brief Double-A finish to 2023. Despite that, Anthony managed to maintain AVG on Batted Balls ratings in the 90s during both the 2024 Double-A and Triple-A Stints.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Anthony posted an Offensive Running Rating just above half plus (75) over his combined 2024 season. That showing was about a standard deviation better than the 2023 mark (24) earned over a comparable number of running-relevant play events.
In line with the two prior campaigns, he played faster as a batter than as a baserunner during 2024. The lefthanded batter gets up to the first base line reasonably well, per single-stop, as Batter ratings that cluster just above average, or near 100. As a baserunner, Anthony should rate around average relative to circuit peers.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
At MLB maturity, Anthony projects for full to one-and-a-half plus walks and hit-by-pitches with average strikeout avoidance. Batted ball outcomes set up to be the career wildcard in so much as the exit-velocity specialist has yet to sustain higher-caliber hit or power fundamentals over a full pro season since being signed in July 2022 out of high school.
Ironically, the 2024 MiLB season that propelled Anthony to the top of the prospects charts has a big asterisk on batted balls. His nearly double-plus hits per batted ball and above plus extra bases per batted ball were generated via batted ball profile fundamentals that beat only five percent of those of league peers.
As opposed to being a pure hitter who also hit the ball harder (see Kristian Campbell, as one prime example outlined here), Anthony was an exit velocity hitter who purely hit the ball hard. He hit groundballs in the direction that he ideally would have lofted outfield flyballs, lofted outfield flyballs in the directions that he ideally would have hit groundballs, and generated fewer line drives between those two batted ball loft denominations.
Anthony was unable to generate many hits or extra bases in the 2025 MLB spring training games, despite still sporting a relatively poorer batted ball profile. Such a development might be an omen of how a 2025 MLB debut would play out if the batted ball profile remains lighter in key hit and power elements. Any such defects in the batted ball profile provide a roadmap for opposing game planners and coaching staffs to study when seeking to bias his batted ball event types toward those least likely to create runs.
What would pose an especially difficult challenge for him in early MLB seasons is if he were to struggle with both launch and spray like he did during the 2024 MiLB and 2025 MLB spring games. When both are off, MLB pitchers have many options by which to exploit the flaws in a batted ball profile.
Adding still more uncertainty to batted ball forecasts is that Anthony has a larger potential to change his batted ball profile in the next couple of years, owing to his relative youth and limited post-high-school experience. Yet, he could only adapt so much so fast against MLB pitchers (else AAA ones) relative to how poorly he rated at those facets during 2024 MiLB play.
For the sake of a 2025 MLB debut that seems imminent, expect strikeout avoidance to rate nearer to full minus than half minus. If the batted ball profile remains thinner in line drives plus pull-third outfield flyballs and thicker in pull-third groundballs, neither hits nor extra bases production on batted balls may beat league average. Such would render him a walk-first batter in the debut, and the same bias could prevail into a fuller 2026 MLB season if the batted ball profile fundamentals do not move nearer to league-average standards sooner.
History portends that the more physical impactor of the baseball is likely to eventually, if not instantly, be an MLB batter who overproduces hits and extra bases per batted ball relative to the underlying batted ball profile fundamentals. But the extent to which actual outcomes can beat the expected ones has limits against MLB-caliber pitching, especially during his earliest years.
Advance-scouting-driven infielder positioning and improved defensive skill of infielders in MLB will limit hit production on groundballs versus past seasons, and offset the fact that he runs the first baseline well. The cozier left-of-center to left field dimensions of Fenway Park will reward the lefthanded batter's present relative aversion to pull-third outfield balls. Yet, the volume of any such homepark bonus bases (that stand to be easier outs at most other venues) would be limited by the relative infrequency of outfield flyballs in general.
For the sake of dynasty fantasy play, the risk that Anthony remains overly reliant on exit velocity to hit MLB pitching ahead is high. Weekly, monthly, and yearly offensive production will run volatile if batted ball profile fundamentals rate subpar to worse relative to league standards. That batter could profile as a league All-Star one season, then as a platoon-leaning regular who starts more than he ideally would the next one. Rather than a dynasty franchise core player, this plausible future Anthony is a sell-high, buy-low fantasy league journeyman. Bet big on the bat only when the batted ball profile fundamentals become passable enough to justify the wager.
The righthanded thrower has played about three-fourths of pro games in center field. Per that, his general fielding statistics do not stand out positively (he is relatively error-prone, throws out somewhat fewer runners than typical, etc.); he would likely be better cast in the smaller left field of Fenway Park than in its larger right field.
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