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Blake Mitchell fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
Blake Mitchell made for a more interesting member of the 2023 MLB Draft prep class to evaluate as a two-way player who was selectable as either a catcher or right-handed starting pitcher.
He attended the August-September 2022 USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Training Camp at the Twins' Fort Myers complex, where he was deployed as both a catcher and pitcher. He made the roster for the ensuing World Cup and served as the team's primary catcher, and he was also used as a multi-inning late reliever.
What did I see then, and how does the professional offensive profile compare? Let's analyze it to determine what we can expect and look forward to seeing out of Mitchell in the future.
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August Through September 2022 Live Looks
Mitchell took eight plate appearances (PA) during the four training camp games. The lefthanded batter tallied a textbook Three True Outcomes (TTO) mix: two walks, four strikeouts, and a flyout each to right and left field. He tossed one clean frame featuring a single and a strikeout.
Truer to TTO form, 26 World Cup plate trips begat eleven non-batted-ball outcomes: seven walks, one hit-by-pitch, three strikeouts. The lone two hits accounted for seven total bases as one was a (opposite-field) home run and the other was a triple.
Frequent walk drawer, Mitchell lays off ball four upstairs
I believe that four of five World Cup steal tries against him resulted in a caught stealing, with the lone survivor advancing to third on his throwing error. On World Cup mounds, he allowed one unearned run over 3.2 frames that included a single, triple, three walks, and six strikeouts.
Mitchell cleanly blocks a pitch in the dirt to keep a baserunner at third base
The catcher received and threw well and packed big walk and good all-fields power potential in the batter's box, but his capacity to hit for average as a pro was questionable. As a pitcher, control seemed problematic, and evaluators seemed likelier to project him as a reliever than as a starter.
Mitchell had the option to attend a four-year college, sort out whether he was best suited as a catcher or pitcher, and be draft-eligible as a sophomore based on his age at the 2025 MLB Draft.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Blake Mitchell
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
Mitchell went a handful or more picks earlier in the 2023 MLB Draft than many had forecast. The Royals announced him as a catcher at the eighth pick, with an agreement in place for a $4.9 million bonus that saved them $1.1 million versus the slot value.
The big walks and big batted ball loft bias was immediately spotted over 52 PA spent with the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League affiliate. A 100 BB+HBP Rating led the plate profile to a 95 Overall. A 100 OFFB Rating was offset by just a 25 Pull OFFB one, which, in concert with a 19 LD Rating, explained why each of ISO and AVG were low.
K Avoid and Batted Ball Profile were each in single digits when the lefthanded batter faced Same-Handed Pitchers.
Mitchell moved up to the Low-A affiliate for 2024 and tallied 464 PA there. A shy of double plus 95 BB+HBP was countered by a half to full minus 23 K Rating. Batted ball loft remained up per 93 GB Avoid and 96 OFFB Ratings, but this time around he also produced a well above-average volume of Pull OFFB and LD that fueled 90 AVG and 99 ISO on Batted Balls Ratings.
As before in the 2023 Rookie-level debut, the lefthanded batter posted a single-digit (seven) K Rating against Same-Handed Pitchers. A 29 PA cup of coffee in High-A to end his 2024 campaign produced comparable batted ball fundamentals but negligible AVG and ISO, with BB+HBP and K Avoid each in steeper decline.
Mitchell was scheduled to play in 2025 MLB Spring Training games, but he sustained an injury to the hamate bone in his right wrist. Surgery since then will likely delay the start of his minor league season until around May.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Offensive Running Rating improved from just above minus with the 2023 Rookie affiliate to closer to half minus than average with the 2024 Low-A club.
In his youth, the 6-foot-1, 202-pound Mitchell could stay in a similar range of half minus to average as an offensive runner.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
At the plate, Mitchell brings huge BB+HBP volumes first and foremost. A high-loft batted ball profile is geared toward extra bases rather than singles production. The closure of what now projects to be a wider future gap between ISO and AVG on Batted Balls would require decreasing launch angles to enable more LD and limit IFFB.
The lefthanded batter has struggled to avoid strikeouts against the less often seen lefthanded pitcher, which would signal present trouble with reading same-handed pitcher spin on breaking balls. For this reason, Mitchell projects today as a platoon-leaning batter who would likely sit against some to more lefthanded MLB starters.
Mitchell has only caught up to this point in his pro career. From a statistical perspective, receiving seems fine and should improve going forward. Throwing outcomes have not matched pre-draft amateur evaluations. He was charged with a whopping 16 errors in just 62 Low-A catcher games while only nabbing 15 percent of 129 attempted base stealers.
When Mitchell returns to action in 2025, fantasy players should be focused on his catcher throwing accuracy, strikeout avoidance (esp. versus lefthanded pitchers), and the relative imbalance between hit and power results. Right field, left field, or first base could become viable options if his catcher defense ability fails to meet MLB standards. Conversion to a reliever or hybrid starter would be more of a last resort if offensive development were to stall.
The 2025 bat may require a month or two to re-reach 2024 peak loudness as Mitchell returns from his spring hamate injury.
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