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In this exercise, I project the 2024 MLB pitching fundamentals of 300 pitchers who have prior MLB experience and would be in line to start for a club at some point in the season, if not for injury or other extenuating factors.
To maximize certainty of the forecasts and keep the process more straightforward, we will exclude pitchers who have yet to appear in MLB (prospects, foreign professional league signees, etc.). The model is blind to who is not healthy now and who may not appear at all owing to surgeries undergone since last summer.
Discussion will first center on real-world pitcher outcomes before pivoting to fantasy-skewed analysis.
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Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and credits the pitcher with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season. The most runs-punitive events for pitchers are Pull-Third OFFB, the three line-drive types, and BB+HBP. The most runs-preventing events for pitchers are K, IFFB, and Pull-Third GB.
Dividing their total number of expected runs by batters faced (BF) yields expected runs per batter that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league qualifier starters (else relievers) to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of Control Rating (CTL, based on BB+HBP per BF), Strikeout Rating (K, based on K per BF), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to understand better the path the pitcher traveled to reach their Overall (reverse engineering Overall reveals that expected run avoidance is generally 44% Strikeouts, 34% Batted Ball Profile, and 22% Control).
To better understand the path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per batted ball basis). Lastly, to check how well expected batted ball outcomes matched real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for the avoidance of hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
Projection Methodology
All FaBIO Ratings the player accrued from 2021 spring training through 2024 (through March 19) spring training are entered into their projections. Regular season plus postseason Ratings assume highest priority weight. MLB Spring Training Ratings are next highest. After that comes any NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball, the only foreign pro league covered) Ratings. Then comes Arizona Fall League. Then AAA, and so on all the way down to rookie leagues.
A few players have collegiate ratings within the time frame and these are weighted comparable to Low-A leagues. More recent Ratings at a given level assume more weight than older ones. The percentage of MLB data that factored into each pitcher's projection will be provided as a proxy of confidence in the forecast.
Comparable to how FaBIO Ratings are generated at a given stop, a set of 2024 AL SP qualifiers and a set of 2024 NL SP qualifiers are assembled to compute means and standard deviations for each parameter. The player's initial projections are normalized (to approximate a normal distribution of outcomes) relative to the mean and standard deviation of each Rating category from the relevant league sample of SP qualifiers. When the player's 2024 league remains a mystery, they receive a set of projected Ratings from each league that are averaged.
Analyses will be limited to pitchers who had projected based on their 2021 through 2023 history plus 2024 spring training usage to face more than 10 batters per game in 2024 MLB (no recent short RP to SP converts like A.J. Puk, Jordan Hicks, etc.).
Top 300: Potential MLB Starting Pitchers
Ranked Best to Worst at Expected Run Avoidance
In the tables that follow, we not only see what the pitcher's projected percentile is for expected run avoidance (Overall Rating), but also the fundamentals route that they would most likely travel to reach that destination or thereabouts. Those who prefer to reference the data tables while reading the text should click the table to open it in a separate window.
The top 20 is topped by runaway best all-around hurler but oft-hurt Jacob deGrom. He, Gerrit Cole, teammate Max Scherzer, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen appear in the first table to follow but will not do so in a game until months into the 2024 season. Unlike FaBIO, we know that also-appearing Brandon Woodruff, Shohei Ohtani, and Shane McClanahan probably will not pitch due to the dates of their most recent arm surgeries.
No. 2 Tyler Glasnow has already made a 2024 regular-season MLB start and K, GB, OFFB Avoid, and Pull OFFB Avoid project to be strong suit fundamentals.
No. 3 Spencer Strider (who occupies the No. 1 Industry ADP position among SP, per RotoBaller) might not be this extreme of a K specialist ahead per a spring training in which his Batted Ball Profile is up one standard deviation (SD) thanks to a two SD increase in GB.
Another injury setback or prophylactic workload restrictions would seem to be all that could prevent No. 4 Tarik Skubal from being a 2024 Cy Young finalist. While not on a deGrom level, No. 5 Zack Wheeler is the next most complete starter to Him. No. 7 Cole may still be Cy-less if the left elbow UCL of No. 6 Springs had not torn. No. 8 Scherzer has historically limited the runs consequences of his many OFFB+Pull OFFB by largely preventing LD and BB+HBP before them. No. 9 Kevin Gausman projects similarly to fellow 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Cole and has had his own spring arm trouble.
No. 11 George Kirby, (Tommy John returnee and limitedly MLB-data-ed), No. 12 Max Meyer (whose slider K were not all the way back this spring but watch out if/when they do return), No. 13 Rasmussen (will he return from a third elbow UCL repair by season's end?), No. 16 Zach Eflin (will his long wobbly wheels hold up after a fuller 727 BF season?), and No. 18 Logan Webb (can he break the recent pattern of up in odd-numbered years, down in even-numbered years to meet or beat these marks?) share many outcomes biases.
Given fringe-average CTL, No. 17 Freddy Peralta must IFFB+LD Avoid very well to offset very high Pull OFFB & high-ish ISO risk (else the seasonal run avoidances skew volatile as they have in recent years). Stouter K+Batted Ball Profile out-generation fundamentals serve to minimize the runs consequences of Kodai Senga's 1.5 minus CTL.
Projection of No. 21 Chris Paddack is 94% MLB based but skews short on batters faced, adding uncertainty to the forecast (would be true for most anyone with a lower projected total BF). No. 23 Shane Baz and No. 24 Lance McCullers Jr. also skew short on recent MLB volume (McCullers is a fairly familiar Senga-like outcomes generator).
LHSPs No. 22 Cristopher Sanchez (a one-hit wonder until he proves his 2023 MiLB & MLB seasons no fluke?) and No. 25 Max Fried (who was up at K a good tick beyond this forecast in a shrunken 2023) fit in fundamentally with the quartet of CTL+Batted Ball Profile RHP in the earlier top 20. As does No. 26 Keaton Winn, who probably sooner or later assumes the rotation spot of similarly designed veteran pending free-agent RHSP (No. 53) Alex Cobb.
Just about no 2023 MLB SP had their AVG and ISO Ratings lag their Path to Batted Ball Profile Ratings more than No. 27 Hunter Brown's, so expect that gap to narrow. That No. 28 Eury Perez already projects plus is a plus and, given his youth-owed malleability, tempering the present extreme OFFB+Pull OFFB+ISO risk several ticks is not so unfeasible. Pitchers who skew fly ball extreme like Perez, No. 35 Joe Ryan, No. 38 Andrew Abbott, No. 40 Kyle Harrison, and (No. 41, up next) Emmet Sheehan can either decrease or increase their runs risk exposure based on how they CTL+IFFB+LD Avoid+Pull OFFB Avoid.
Consecutive LHSPs No. 29 Justin Steele, Framber Valdez, and Clayton Kershaw slot within a half to full plus K, half to double plus GB window. Can (groin-sidelined) rookie No. 32 Sawyer Gipson-Long walk a K & CTL >>> Batted Ball Profile tightrope adequately enough to pin down an MLB SP role or does the changeup-with-slider specialist ultimately end up a short RP?
No. 33 Justin Verlander lost 1.5 SD of K in 2023 but can still locate/move a four-seam around the zone well enough to limit hits. A re-upped No. 34 Aaron Nola should sacrifice some surplus CTL so as to achieve better K and (esp.) Batted Ball Profile out-generation fundamentals.
With No. 37 Griffin Canning's LD Avoid skewing high relative the remaining Path to Batted Ball Profile marks, this would be a case to bet the under somewhat on LD, Batted Ball Profile, AVG Ratings. No. 36 Pablo Lopez is trending up but held back here by prior season Ratings. No. 39 Jesus Luzardo's spring K and Batted Ball Profile Ratings are roughly reversed relative to this forecast but he rates 93 Overall so far thanks to CTL being up.
Three-fifths of a potential Red Sox 2024 MLB rotation lands in the No. 41 to No. 60 table between Kutter Crawford, (more K points to come?) Brayan Bello, and Garrett Whitlock. Luis Castillo currently occupies the No. 4 Industry ADP spot but No. 43 is an appropriate volume-independent rank among these 300 since he doesn't rack up K and GB-leaning weak contact like he did as a wilder Reds SP.
No. 44 Gavin Stone's 2023 AAA Overall exceeded the 2023 MLB debut 149 BF one by 94 percentile points, but now he sports a larger-sample 98 Overall in MLB spring training. No. 46 Cole Ragans rated 90 overall over final two 2023 MLB months, but this 81 seems a more realistic forecast for a fuller season of work between prior marks and relative distrust of Royals.
Squint and imagine under-the-radar No. 47 Allan Winans (who has not appeared this spring) as a pre-pandemic Kyle Hendricks (who today ranks No. 211 among these 300). Eventual Tommy-John-returnee No. 48 Robbie Ray makes for two wilder fly balling K-first SF LHSP so far... with a third one to come.
Beyond-wild K+Batted Ball Profile standout No. 49 Edward Cabrera hasn’t been physically able to appear since March 4 but has a shockingly high 97 CTL Rating for the spring. No. 51 Gavin Williams went down a day later but sports an 18-batter 100 Overall (78 CTL/100 K/98 Batted Ball Profile).
No. 54 Grayson Rodriguez overmatched AAA batters after his 2023 rookie MLB debut demotion, then rated 87 Overall over the final two MLB regular-season months; he has since come up very short at CTL (14) + K (6) over 54 2024 spring batters. After flashing nice fundamentals in an earlier-than-expected 2023 MLB SP debut, No. 55 Bryan Woo already projects to post K + Batted Ball Profile out-generation marks on par with those of pricier veteran Castillo. Lefty K specialist with an emptier batted ball profile is the correct evaluation of present-day No. 58 Chris Sale. As MLB SPs, No. 60 Reese Olson likely has a higher ceiling but lower floor relative to No. 59 Louie Varland.
That No. 61 Taj Bradley was much fundamentally sounder in 2023 MLB than in 2023 AAA clouds his 2024 MLB forecast. Fly balling changeup specialist No. 62 Ryan Pepiot could end up a short RP if the CTL+LD Avoid stars do not align better in a SP role. No. 63 Michael Soroka might emerge as a "some K, some GB" trade deadline SP target before hitting free agency.
Postseason heroes No. 64 Merrill Kelly and No. 80 Brandon Pfaadt make for the first Diamondbacks to appear. Kelly has put up a fly ball-extreme 98 Overall 78 CTL/98 K/72 Batted Ball Profile line over his first 36 spring batters. Projected extreme fly baller Pfaadt flashed a two-seamer in the playoffs and seems to have again this spring but only has a 26-batter CTL-or-bust 85 CTL/2 K/12 Batted Ball Profile line. No. 65 Logan Gilbert's fastball-driven Batted Ball Profile seems to inch up a few notches each season and he could trip plus Overall if it happens again.
By now, you probably guessed that third Giants LHSP to be the ultra-one-dimensional, No. 66 Blake Snell, who stands to be part of a rather bipolar 2024 rotation that at times may feature three wilder lefty fly balling strikeout specialists and three control-biased righty ground ballers. Some of everything but not overly much of anything aptly describes No. 67 Nathan Eovaldi now. LHP No. 68 Kenny Rosenberg would probably need to work as lower BF/G-ed swingman to 2024 MLB FaBIO (K, esp.) this well.
No. 69 Luis Gil (being down to one option year also works against a long-term RHSP future some to more) and No. 70 Triston McKenzie profile as similar K+IFFB RHP with injury risk. FaBIO fundamentals of No. 71 Corbin Burnes, who occupies the No. 2 Industry ADP spot among SP, are in broader decline and the now-Orioles cutter specialist beating his expected AVG and ISO Avoids by as much as he did in 2023 ahead is improbable. No. 72 Shane Bieber was also on the offseason trade market but stayed put, probably owing to a mix of arm health concerns and how much K fell in 2023 (K Rating is back up to 87 in a 50-batter 74 Overall 2024 spring sample).
Upon return from Tommy John rehab, AL West RHSPs No. 73 Tyler Mahle and No. 74 Luis Garcia could be deployed some to more as K+IFFB long RP. No. 75 Bobby Miller has a CTL+GB-leaning 85 Overall (89 CTL/21 K/94 Batted Ball Profile) spring going.
No. 77 Davis Daniel has a nice four-seam batted ball profile but may need to stay below 10 BF/G for K to skew norther of average. Per the projected K+(rather unsustainable) LD Avoid+OFFB Avoid+Pull OFFB Avoid quartet, No. 78 Darius Vines may ultimately wind up a changeupping/cuttering RP rather than SP. Between forward batter handedness splits and sky-high OFFB+Pull OFFB risk, No. 79 Nestor Cortes will seldom be deployable as an October LHSP but will afford value then as a L-on-L K+IFFB specialist RP.
I will refrain from providing commentary on each of the remaining 220 2024 MLB SP candidates. But No. 86 is where 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray slots now on a volume-independent fundamentals basis as he no longer Batted Ball Profiles a la the first several years of his MLB career.
Occupier of the No. 7 Industry ADP SP spot and 2023 NL Cy Young finalist Zac Gallen tumbles all the way down to No. 97 thanks in part to a terrible Sep-Oct stretch of fundamentals; that extra heavy dose of inferior work could easily produce a 2024 arm hangover.
No. 90 Cody Bradford assumes the Texas staff's vacated CTL-first LHSP role sooner or later and on the cheap relative to the departed. That No. 91 Kyle Bradish posted 247 batters of 94 Overall work over the regular season's final two months had him pegged as a safer bet to beat his 2024 FaBIO projection, but spring arm health concerns have his immediate future murky.
No. 94 Nick Lodolo has often been semi-short on LD Avoid but now he is beyond short on CTL, too, further filling the sacks with one-base traffic. Teammate No. 98 Hunter Greene just can't keep posting OFFB & Pull OFFB Avoids this tiny with such a foul mix of CTL+LD Avoid+IFFB; the fastball approach and arsenal needs to change and quickly. Changeup-reliant LHSP No. 100 Jordan Wicks had trouble landing whiffs (16 K Rating) in his 2023 MLB debut and has again this spring (19 K Rating) but else rates rather solid in other dimensions.
In questioning whether No. 114 Tanner Bibee could up K much or patch holes in the present batted ball profile well enough, I would project the 2023 AL Rookie of Year finalist in the range of a higher-end SP3 to lower-end SP2 for the next couple of seasons.
No. 115 Dylan Cease is up almost two SDs at CTL this spring and some at K and Batted Ball Profile, too; expect the profile to again skew one-dimensional but not to the extremes of this gloomier forecast, with spring progress making a half plus (69) Overall for 2024 fairly realistic with a chance to reemerge a fully plus Overall SP in 2025.
Via an 82 Overall, No. 121 Mitch Keller was a mere two points shy of a plus 2023 MLB season but FaBIO hasn't fully forgotten his pre-2023 MLB lines or overlooked a 27 Overall (12 CTL/11 K/81 Batted Ball Profile) 2024 spring; betting the over is advisable but don't stray too far above this forecast for a season convened in the wake of an arm-taxing 822 BF one.
I would not count on No. 125 Walker Buehler delivering much more than this is in either quality of fundamentals or quantity of batters. Red Sox front office personnel probably never imagined lost-to-surgery-already free-agent signee No. 128 Lucas Giolito doing much more than eating innings for four months than being traded for prospects, else sticking around to repeat the same cycle in 2025.
No. 139 Quinn Priester finally put up a plus MiLB season in 2023 and even after a minus 18 Overall (but 86 Batted Ball Profile) MLB debut, there is hope that he could adequately man an MLB SP4-ish role over multiple seasons.
No. 141 Dustin May, No. 151 Charlie Morton, (hyper-volatile K+IFFB versus BB+OFFB+Pull OFFB tightrope walker) No. 158 Cristian Javier, and No. 160 Luis Severino have tumbled down the FaBIO Overall Rating leaderboards over the last few years. And at nearly the median position of the 300-pitcher cohort, we come to our late 2023 Rangers CTL-first LHSP and still free agent, No. 149 Jordan Montgomery.
Are Jose Berrios owners comfortable with the projection in row No. 174?
The FaBIO profile of No. 181 Casey Mize has flipped from K+CTL-heavy as a top NCAA D1 SP prospect (taken first overall in the 2018 MLB Draft) to an almost all Batted Ball Profile one now.
By the No. 201 spot, we have ventured fully into SP4 territory. One style of MLB SP that has some fantasy value and can still be found from here down is the one who mostly just avoids walks while having a firmer hold on a rotation spot (No. 211 Hendricks, No. 216 Miles Mikolas). A "most all eggs in the CTL basket" starter could help counterbalance a staff that skews light on CTL but heavy on K and/or Batted Ball Profile.
No. 235 Matt Manning had raised his K Rating from an almost double minus 5 in 2023 MLB to an above plus 87 in an 83 Overall 2024 spring before being unceremoniously optioned to the minors.
After skewing rather K-unidimensional in a 53 Overall 2023 MiLB season and exceptionally K-unidimensional in a 9 Overall MLB debut, No. 240 Alec Marsh has flashed a much more complete 53-batter 94 Overall 63 CTL/87 K/87 Batted Ball Profile (98 GB, 46 IFFB, 93 LD Avoid, 95 OFFB Avoid, 82 Pull OFFB Avoid) line this spring. Who in this range besides Marsh sports one fundamental around which a MLB SP future could be framed?
By No. 241 or so, we are primarily evaluating fringe SP4 to SP5 candidates whose Overall bar has been set so low here that they are far likelier to beat the forecast than lag it.
Two key volume cogs of the projected 2024 Nationals rotation appear rather adjacently in No. 250 Josiah Gray and No. 257 Patrick Corbin.
No. 268 Michael Kopech has been returned to a short RP role. Many of these pitchers should be short to medium RP but mostly they will not in 2024 MLB owing to how desperate clubs are in this era for starter innings as an offshoot of so few established starters getting deep into games.
The poor Rockies have NINE 2024 MLB SP candidates projecting within the No. 260- No. 300 range, including two who are new to the organization and relatively unfamiliar with pitching at altitude. The worse the team of the pitcher is in the No. 250 to No. 300 range, the more likely the pitcher is to accrue a larger batters faced total; conversely, the more competitive the team is, the more unlikely the front office is to allow that sort of pitcher to face many MLB batters.
Starting Pitcher Fundamentals in the Context of Fantasy Leagues
Imagine a fictional fantasy league where the first pitching category is run avoidance, the basic goal of pitchers. The other pitching categories are the fundamentals that tend to explain run avoidance. Reverse engineering FaBIO's Overall Rating instructs that run avoidance, over a larger sample of pitchers, is explained 44% by strikeouts and 34% by batted ball profile and 22% by control.
So, let's make strikeouts (K per BF), batted ball profile (how would this even be computed?), and control (BB+HBP per PA) the other pitching categories. Rather than "batted ball profile," we will use two simpler categories of hit avoidance and extra bases avoidance on batted balls as a proxy for it. This five-categories league requires weekly minimums on total staff innings but else has no counting stats.
If all five categories receive equal weight in the fictional league's points system in keeping with fantasy league customs, this league has a dependent variable category in run avoidance that is explained 44% K/34% Batted Ball Profile/22% CTL by the four independent variable categories, which are weighted 25% K/25% CTL/50% Batted Ball Profile amongst the four.
In this league, the relative weights on fundamentals across all five categories turns out to be (1.44/5) K/(1.22/5) CTL/(2.34/5) Batted Ball Profile or 29% K/24% CTL/47% Batted Ball Profile. This particular weighting on these fundamentals is distorted relative to mostly any league's combination of pitching categories and scoring rules, but every fantasy league distorts the value of pitching fundamentals in one way or another relative to how they should be valued in real life.
Now, we can rank all 300 pitchers evaluated in this article from 1 to 300 at the five pitching categories of this fictional fantasy league and tally up how this league values them on points (total points ties are broken by run avoidance rank). Sorting them by league points yields this top-20 table.
In a parallel universe in which No. 1 deGrom had not morphed from moderate ground baller to moderate fly baller over the last handful of seasons, he also dominates the Extra Bases Avoidance charts. Wheeler and Skubal round out the top three. The general trend in this fictional league is that pitchers whose worst fundamental is no poorer than around average rise, and especially so for hit and extra bases avoiders (Sandy Alcantara leaps from No. 52 at Expected Run Avoidance to No. 20 at Points). The one-trick ponies with weaker fundamentals elsewhere slide.
Glasnow ranks No. 2 at Run Avoidance but slides to No. 21 at league points. Hit-avoider Crawford climbs from No. 42 at Run Avoidance to No. 22 at points. Cole, who overachieved on hit and extra bases avoidance in 2023 per his underlying batted ball profile fundamentals, ranks No. 28 on points.
In this fundamentals-first fantasy league, the unproven Winans projects to beat all Braves right-handed starters on points. No. 3 at Run Avoidance Spencer Strider ranks just No. 92 at points, due to owning the No. 174 rank at BB+HBP Avoidance, No. 229 rank at Hit Avoidance, and No. 189 rank at Extra Bases Avoidance; the differences in fundamentals between he and No. 2 on Points Wheeler reinforce why real-world Strider needs to improve his batted ball profile ahead, as else he holds the much shorter hand relative to Wheeler whenever the duo next squares off in the playoffs.
The reader can look up the full ranks of pitchers among the 300 projected 2024 MLB SP candidates in this Google Sheet. Where does each of your 2024 fantasy starters rank at projected strikeouts and projected avoidances of runs, BB+HBP, hits, and extra bases? How does the collective group rank at each fundamental?
Among still available else acquirable starters, who might best shore up weaker spots in staff fundamentals? How does the league points scheme prioritize run avoidance and the four contributing elements seen here?
Conclusion
Fantasy players probably do not think enough about some outcomes-leaning fundamentals with pitchers and perhaps even more so in this era of "stuff" models. While better stuff can boost fundamentals, fantasy leagues reward outcomes rather than stuff. Assembling a fantasy pitching staff strategically with a broader focus on fundamentals may be an underutilized path to contention.
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