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Termarr Johnson's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, analyzing his bust potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
Pittsburgh Pirates middle infield prospect Termarr Johnson is next up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class.
Johnson was touted out of the Georgia prep ranks and national invite showcase circuit as a 70 grade, or double plus, hitter with excellent plate discipline.
How should the professional plate profiles and offensive outcomes posted to date impact future forecasts of Johnson in real-world and fantasy baseball circles?
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Prospect Analysis: Termarr Johnson
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
The Pirates chose the left-handed-batting prep shortstop as the fourth overall selection of the 2022 MLB Draft. A $7.2 million bonus was just above the pick's slot value.
The 2022 pro debut encompassed 82 plate appearances that began in the Rookie Florida Complex League but ended with the Bradenton-based Low-A Florida State League club. Matching 92 BB+HBP Ratings were accompanied by K Avoids that rose from 34 with the Rookie club to 63 with the Low-A one. A pair of 67 Batted Ball Profile Ratings were earned via different Path elements. The Rookie one produced almost no (two) AVG while the Low-A generated half plus (71) AVG.
The lefthanded batter struggled with southpaws in the debut as he twice posted a single-digit overall against same-handed pitchers.
In a 453 PA 2023 season spent more back in Low-A than in High-A, Johnson established himself as among the premier walk drawers of MiLB per a 100 BB+HBP Rating combined across both levels. In 2022, K Avoid rose rather than fell from level one to level two and from roughly the same starting to the same ending value.
The LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid trio improved from solidly above-average over 325 Low-A plate trips to above plus in High-A thanks to a 94 LD, but AVG on Batted Balls rated similarly around half plus at each stop. Johnson had a relative pull bias to 2023 outfield flyballs and a 72 Pull OFFB Rating, powered by more (97) ISO in Low-A than a 59 one did in High-A.
Same-Handed Pitchers Overall finally caught up to Oppo-Handed Pitchers Overall in 2023 High-A, though that fate was earned almost all by maxing out Batted Ball Profile versus Same-Handed Pitchers.
Johnson spent most of 2024 back in High-A. A 96 BB+HBP Rating was accompanied by a then-career-best 72 K Avoid. Key losses of LD and Pull OFFB sank Batted Ball Profile to 41 and limited (41) AVG and (46) ISO production on contact. K Avoid went still higher to a nearly plus 80 over just 57 AA plate trips; LD and AVG fell sharply versus 2024 High-A as Pull OFFB and ISO rose versus the priors.
The 2024 Same-Handed Pitchers Overall Ratings were down somewhat compared to the same-level Oppo-Handed Pitchers Overall.
To the good and over 53 Arizona Fall League plate trips, Johnson nearly replicated his 2024 combined High-A and Double-A 95 BB+HBP and 73 K Avoid Ratings.
The LD and IFFB ratings practically reversed between the 2024 combined MiLB and Arizona Fall League lines, with AVG increasing slightly and ISO up still more in the hitter-friendly Arizona fall circuit.
Johnson was shut down in mid-March for what remained of the 2025 MLB spring camp after he suffered a bone bruise on his foot during the prospects-focused Spring Breakout game. His MLB spring seven plate-trip line disproportionately featured very low, often single-digit marks.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
In his most recent full season of work in 2024 across two levels, Johnson rated right around half minus (31) at Offensive Running Rating, with As Batter and As Baserunner marks each of about the same half minus magnitude. Johnson played much faster as a batter in 2023 than he did in 2024, with the two 2023 As Batter ratings registering in the plus to double-plus range.
Johnson sustained a hamstring injury during the 2024 MLB spring camp that may explain some of the 2024 decline in Offensive Running Rating. However, Johnson has consistently posted subpar ratings as a pro baserunner with teammates at the plate. As Baserunner Offensive Running Rating has not topped a circuit-average 50 mark at any one stop since a 73 was compiled over 24 play events in 2022 Rookie play.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
After three pro campaigns, Johnson is not in the ballpark of being the double-plus hitter he was projected to be during the 2022 MLB draft. He was trending in a much better direction during 2023 when half to full plus batted ball profile fundamentals begat half plus hits and a surprising one-and-a-half plus extra bases on batted balls. But then came a 2024 campaign in which average to half minus batted ball profile fundamentals produced average to half minus hits and extra bases per batted ball.
Pittsburgh Pirates full-season minor leaguers posted the worst FaBIO plate profile fundamentals of all thirty 2024 farm systems. Coupling this with the fact that several of its pre-2022 first-rounders have also struggled to hit as pros and/or major leaguers, we should not be surprised that Johnson has not hit near the level of pre-draft forecasts. The present ordinariness of his bat could easily be owed to one organization's dysfunction more than to consensus pre-draft misevaluations or other explanations, such as his small 5-foot-7-inch stature.
The ability of Johnson to collect walks and hit by pitches at a near double-plus clip positions him among the best in the minors at that and still more so among players who lack a loud bat that encourages pitchers to nibble around the strike zone. It was not until the past season that he flashed the forecasted above-average strikeout avoidance. All of his 2024 High-A, Double-A, and Arizona Fall League strikeout avoidance ratings placed in the half to full plus range (72nd to 80th percentile).
During 2024, Johnson improved as a strikeout avoider but declined as a hitter, slugger, batter, and offensive runner. Could the spring hamstring injury have gotten his season and hitting base off on the wrong foot from the jump? The dynasty fantasy leaguer should consider a buy-low trade pursuit from the standpoint that a slighter 2025 to 2026 rebound of the bat could position Johnson more nicely as a future major league platoon-leaning most-everyday regular who is a plus to double plus walk and hit by pitch collector, half to full plus strikeout avoider, half plus hitter, and half plus power generator.
Pirates gave Johnson 36 of his 49 pro career starts at shortstop during 2024. Oddly, the pre-2025 defensive metrics portray Johnson as overly error-prone at his primary minor league position of second base but relatively solid at shortstop. Potential fantasy league eligibility at shortstop should increase dynasty interest in the down-stocked Johnson. If the bat fails to come around more fully, Johnson could end up a peskier utility player who also logs some time in left field, at least beyond probably third base.
As dynasty fantasy owners speculate as to the future value of Johnson, they should primarily focus on just how much he could hit for average and power in MLB if the batted ball profile fundamentals bounce back after a down 2024 minor league campaign. If Johnson arrived in MLB as simply a high-walking plate pest with a subpar platoon-biased bat and subpar as-baserunner running, he would largely be relegated to bottom-of-the-order non-everyday lineup play and not carry much fantasy value beyond fill-in duty.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running techniques, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
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