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Corbin examines fantasy football committee backfields to target in 2025. His top backfields to chase include the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
There has been research on leaning into the uncertainty and examining crowded backfields. We discussed the Giants, Vikings, and Commanders in a previous article covering a few other backfields. We're looking at team running backs with an average draft position (ADP) difference at 75 picks or lower from their team's RB1 and RB2 in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) ADP.
Besides those three teams we mentioned, several other teams meet that threshold, with a couple of them having three running backs within the top 150 in ADP. We had 10 teams with a 75-pick threshold difference in their RB1 and RB2 in ADP. The Cardinals, Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks, and Titans were the other teams meeting the 75-pick threshold.
We want to examine the team's usage, underlying metrics, and whether there might be any overlapping skill sets to weed through the preseason news and noise. Let's look through three crowded backfields to identify running backs to target or fade based on their data, price, and situation.
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Cardinals Backfield
Can James Conner Produce One More Time?
FFPC ADP: 52.8, RB20
Conner set career highs in carries (236) and rushing yards (1,094) in his eighth season. He ranked 16th in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) in 2024, and the market has been fairly pricing him. Conner had the second-best missed tackles forced rate (MTF/Att) at 29 percent behind only Kenneth Walker III.
Connner was one of seven running backs with a 20 percent MTF/Att and an explosive rush percentage at six percent or higher, with a minimum of 50 rush attempts. The others were Bucky Irving, Jahmyr Gibbs, Isaac Guerendo, Jordan Mason, Derrick Henry, and Sean Tucker. Conner hasn't shown any signs of aging or slowing down.
There have been drafts where it shakes out that fantasy managers could take Conner as their team's RB1 in the fourth or fifth round. Conner was crushing it for most of the season until the final few games, when he battled a knee injury. We'll discuss the backfield usage without Conner when we examine Trey Benson.
Projecting Trey Benson's Usage
FFPC ADP: 121.4, RB44
Not to say Benson might be at the same level as Chase Brown. However, Brown reminded me that if we liked someone during the prospect evaluation process, then we shouldn't let an underwhelming rookie season deter us.
Brown had a clearer path to relevance, so that might be an unfair comparison. Granted, the 2024 NFL running back prospects weren't on the same level as 2025, but Benson was considered the RB2 in the draft class behind Jonathon Brooks.
Conner handled 66 percent of the team's snaps, with a 56 percent team rush share and a 12 percent target share in Weeks 1-15. Benson trailed Conner in rush share (18 percent), though they also mixed in Emari Demercado.
Conner suffered a knee injury in Week 16, and he fought to play in Week 17, but he missed Week 18. The Cardinals mixed in Michael Carter in the final three weeks, with Benson missing time due to an ankle injury to close the season. In the final two weeks, Carter led the Cardinals' backfield in snap share (79 percent) and rush share (61 percent), with a similar target share (eight percent) to Conner (seven percent).
The Cardinals called up Carter from the practice squad in those final few games, hinting at what Benson's usage could look like if Conner misses time. Conner talked about Benson being used more often in 2025, which might be unusual. Even if we take Conner's comment with a grain of salt, there's a path for Benson to garner more opportunities in Year 2 based on the Cardinals' backfield usage last season.
As a rookie in Benson's small sample, he had a 16 percent missed tackles forced rate with 4.8 percent of carries going 15-plus yards. Throughout Benson's collegiate career, he had the highest missed tackles forced rate (39.2 percent) and the second-highest percentage of breakaway runs (54.5 percent). It's a reminder that Benson has the explosiveness and skill set to evade tacklers.
Summary
If Benson takes on a combination of his and Demercado's usage, that would mean a 35-40 percent snap share, 25 percent rush share, and a seven percent target rate. That might lead to RB3-type usage, but he could give us a few spike weeks if Conner misses time or Benson's collegiate underlying metrics show up, leading to highlight plays and efficient production.
Take a shot at Benson at cost, though Conner should have one more year of high-end fantasy production in 2025.
Jaguars Backfield
Travis Etienne Jr.'s Lost Volume
FFPC ADP: 95.1, RB34
The Jaguars were the only team with three running backs drafted inside the top 150 picks before the Browns' backfield shifted with the news about Quinshon Judkins. Etienne has seen his ADP dip by a few spots, and Tank Bigsby's price has skyrocketed, given the positive camp buzz.
We saw a down season from Etienne last year, mainly because his usage went from the eighth-best EP/G in 2023 to the 35th-ranked running back in EP/G in 2024. The main issue for Etienne involved Bigsby taking on a larger workload in 2024. Etienne had a 75 percent snap share, 60 percent rush share, and a 12 percent target share in 2023.
That indicates Etienne had elite usage at the running back position. For context, Etienne was one of six running backs with a 60 percent rush share and double-digit target share in 2023. That list included Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Rachaad White, and Saquon Barkley.
However, Etienne had a lower snap share (54 percent), rush percentage (43 percent), and target share (11 percent) in 2024. Bigsby ate into Etienne's rush share while the Jaguars were more balanced in neutral game scripts, ranking 16th in pass rate. That's similar to the Jaguars' pass rate in 2023, ranking 14th in neutral game scripts.
Interestingly, the Buccaneers under Liam Coen were similarly balanced, ranking 20th in neutral script pass rate in 2024. That might suggest Coen and the Jaguars offense might lean more toward the run in 2025, though they have multiple talented receivers.
The market might've had Etienne's price wrong throughout the offseason, making him the RB1 on the team by default. If Etienne maintains a similar role, we want him to have a high-end target share and be an efficient pass catcher.
Tank Bigsby Hype Train
FFPC ADP: 115.8, RB41
Bigsby led the Jaguars' backfield in rushing EP/G (7.3), ahead of Etienne (5.6) in 2024. Bigsby saw a team-high 50 percent of the team's carries inside the five-yard line. He nearly doubled Etienne (nine percent) in missed tackles forced percentage, with Bigsby at 17 percent.
Bigsby had two or more targets twice in his career, meaning he had one or zero targets in 93.5 percent of his games. Sure, Bigsby could garner more targets in 2025, but it's more likely that he continues to soak up the primary rushing role. When Bigsby had double-digit rush attempts, he averaged nearly 11.5 PPR/G.
Without double-digit carries, Bigsby's production plummets to 2.1 PPR/G. Bigsby ranked tied for 12th in rush yards over expected per attempt (0.70), tying him with Bijan Robinson, Antonio Gibson, and Jacobs. Furthermore, Bigsby faced more stacked boxes than Etienne and showed he can be an efficient rusher.
Bigbsy should contribute as an efficient rusher, making him a running back to target in the Jaguars' backfield. Under Coen, the Buccaneers used the 11th-highest rate of man/gap rushing concepts. Etienne had 60 percent, and Bigsby had 58.3 percent of their attempts with map/gap running concepts in 2024.
If Bigsby was explosive under former offensive coordinator Press Taylor and former head coach Doug Pederson, he should be able to replicate or improve heading into 2025 with Coen as the new head coach.
Pounding the Table For Bhayshul Tuten
FFPC ADP: 129.3, RB48
Tuten will continue to be one of my flag plant players because of his explosiveness, collegiate production, pass-catching skills, and ability to force missed tackles. We laid out a strong argument to make Tuten a priority target when we're drafting backward to identify values.
When one thing rises, another falls, which seems to be the case with Tuten dipping in ADP. If Etienne misses time, Tuten should take on a larger running back target share. However, Tuten could also supplant Bigsby's early-down rushing role, suggesting multiple paths to value. Fantasy managers should continue soaking up the discounted price on Tuten, as a small-miss, big-hit type running back. Invest in Tuten.
Summary
Fantasy managers have been confused about which running back to target since it's rare to have a trio of running backs on the same team going inside the top 150 picks, let alone within 10 to 20 picks of each other. Bigsby and Tuten are the best bets because there's much more to like in their underlying metrics than Etienne.
Cowboys Backfield
Does Javonte Williams Have Any Juice Left?
FFPC ADP: 105.5, RB38
Williams was brutally inefficient last season, ranking 140th in FPOE/G. Interestingly, that's been a trend for Williams, where his EP/G indicates he should be an RB2 or RB3, but he underperforms expectations. Among rushers with 50 attempts, Williams ranked 56th out of 70 qualified running backs in rush yards over expected per attempt.
Williams used to be someone who evades tacklers, causing us to buy in. However, he had a below-average 13 percent missed tackles forced rate in 2024, not far from 2023 (14 percent). Williams also lacks explosiveness, with 2.9 percent of his carries going for 15 or more yards.
The Cowboys made a minimal investment in Williams, with a one-year deal worth $3 million. However, he will account for the highest cap hit among their running backs. From Week 5 to 18, the Cowboys trusted Rico Dowdle to handle a heavier workload, with a 62 percent team rush share and nine percent target share. Williams could have similar early-season usage, but the chances of him hitting big seem improbable.
The Need For Jaydon Blue
FFPC ADP: 111.7, RB39
The more we research different backs, the more Blue becomes an enticing rookie to target with a wide range of outcomes. Blue played with a loaded group of running backs at Texas, including Brooks, CJ Baxter, Robinson, and Roschon Johnson. He doesn't have the same talent level as them, and Texas mixed in Quintrevion Wisner, who led the team in carries (226) and receptions (44) last season.
Blue's size and analytical comparisons suggest he might be more of a pass-catching running back to begin his career. That's evident in Blue, comparing closely to Nyheim Hines, Tony Pollard, and Chris Thompson. Hines and Thompson were limited as rushers throughout their careers. Meanwhile, Pollard broke out in Year 4 since he played behind an elite back in Ezekiel Elliott.
Blue gives the Cowboys some much-needed explosiveness, with his 78th-percentile Speed Score after the Cowboys ranked 26th in explosive rush rate. Williams and veteran Miles Sanders won't give them that explosiveness at this stage in their careers.
The visual below shows the running backs at 200 pounds or below who have scored at least 175 fantasy points in recent years.
Though there might be concerns about Blue's size, we're not expecting him to take on a massive workload in the Cowboys' offense. We've seen smaller running backs produce well after being listed under 200 pounds, like Williams, Irving, Gibbs, De'Von Achane, and James Cook. Irving and Williams might be better comparisons based on their draft capital.
Blue is dealing with a bone bruise in his heel, but it sounds somewhat minor. Once Blue makes a splash play, expect his draft cost to increase.
Running Out of Miles On Sanders
FFPC ADP: 187.5, RB69
After Sanders saw a career high in carries (259), rushing yards (1,269), and touchdowns (11) in 2022, we've seen him fall off the map for fantasy purposes. It's partly context-related since he went from an above-average offense in the Eagles to the Panthers. Furthermore, Sanders played behind Chuba Hubbard, who garnered 54 percent of the team's carries and an eight percent target share in 2023.
Sanders has been losing the ability to force missed tackles (11 percent) and seeing a usage reduction, evidenced by the ranking of RB46 (2023) and RB47 (2024) in EP/G. He ranked 64th in rush yards over expected, yet faced stacked boxes 10.9 percent of the time. We need efficiency from running backs if the opportunity remains limited.
If the Cowboys end up relying on Sanders, expect them to be more pass-heavy because that's not a logical move.
Summary
Blue has been a priority target in this backfield because of the athleticism that Williams and Sanders lack among the Cowboys' running backs. Williams and Sanders should be small-miss, small-hit type running backs, so we shouldn't have concerns about missing out. There have been rumblings about Phil Mafah, but there are some concerns surrounding his speed and athleticism at 234 pounds.
He didn't run at the NFL Combine, but there are rumors that his 40-yard dash would be close to 4.6, leading to an above-average Speed Score. We mention Mafah mostly as a mid-season waiver wire option if Sanders or Williams miss time because Mafah can be tough to bring down as a potential tough runner.
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