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Corbin examines fantasy football committee backfields to target in 2025. His top crowded backfields to chase in drafts, including the Minnesota Vikings and more.
We have 11 teams with one running back drafted in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Average Draft Position (ADP) within the first 150 picks. They include the Ravens, Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Raiders, Saints, and Eagles. Meanwhile, 65.6 percent of the team backfields have two more running backs drafted inside the top 150, including one team with three rushers.
We've seen teams shift toward using multiple running backs consistently besides those workhorse running backs. Another way to look at this is via a running back snap share. We had 21 running backs (14.9 percent) who posted a 60 percent snap share or better in 2024. Meanwhile, 15 running backs or 10.5 percent met that threshold in 2023.
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The visual below shows the running backs with a 60 percent snap share in 2024. Snap share correlates well with fantasy points since players need to be on the field to score.
Instead of using ADP thresholds, let's examine three crowded backfields to identify running backs to target and avoid. The ADP market is sharper each season. Our goal should be to analyze the underlying metrics and situation to find edges in our redraft leagues.
Vikings Backfield
Aaron Jones, 69.5 ADP, RB26
Ty Chandler was a favorite late-round ZeroRB target last season, but the hype quickly faded. That was the case when the Vikings acquired Cam Akers ahead of Week 7, hinting at Chandler not being what they hoped for as a backup running back. Jones posted a career-best in rushes plus targets (317), which came via a career-high in carries (255) and his typical near-elite target share at 12 percent.
The Vikings had some brutal run-blocking numbers, with the 20th-ranked adjusted yards before contact allowed per attempt. They signed two former Colts' offensive linemen, including Ryan Kelly and Will Fries. Furthermore, the Colts drafted Donovan Jackson in the first round as an attempt to improve their interior offensive line.
Jones boasted the fifth-best percentage of high-value touches (78 percent), tied with Saquon Barkley. They trailed Kyren Williams (85 percent), Alvin Kamara (84 percent), Joe Mixon (83 percent), Bijan Robinson (80 percent), and Jonathan Taylor (78 percent). The Vikings trusted Jones inside the 10-yard line after having a 56 percent high-value touch rate in 2023 and 58 percent in 2022 with the Packers.
Jordan Mason, 91.6 ADP, RB33
Mason filled in for Christian McCaffrey last season for the first seven games of the season. During his seven-game stretch as the starter, he garnered a 71 percent snap share, 60 percent rush share, and six percent target share. Mason left with an injury in Week 8 and ranked 18th in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) in Weeks 1-7.
He had the lowest receiving EP/G (2.4) among the top 20 in Weeks 1-7. The other running back with a lower receiving EP/G was Derrick Henry. Mason isn't at the Henry level, especially considering Henry's ridiculous efficiency with 8.4 fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) in Weeks 1-7. Mason wasn't used in the receiving game, which was where Jones thrived.
Mason forced a missed tackle on 22 percent of his rush attempts, an above-average percentage. Furthermore, Mason was an explosive rusher, with 7.8 percent of his carries going 15+ yards. That indicates Mason can be an early-down grinder and potentially steal some carries from Jones.
Summary
We've seen some rumors that Mason might take away rush attempts near the goal line. Jones garnered 65 percent of the Vikings' rush attempts inside the five-yard line, much better than his percentage in 2023 (43.8 percent). Meanwhile, Jones provides value in the receiving game, aligning with ranking eighth in receiving EP/G over the past two seasons at running back.
Jones should be the priority based on his receiving profile, but both he and Mason have reasonable draft prices as an RB2 or RB3. The Vikings haven't added any notable running backs, indicating they feel somewhat confident with Jones and Mason splitting the workload in 2025. There probably won't be any week-winning potential out of this duo, but it's a small loss if they don't cash in.
Giants' Backfield
Cam Skattebo, 94.8 ADP, RB34
When drafting leagues, the rookie and Year 2 RB go close together in drafts. The Giants' duo has the closest ADP difference from the team's RB1 and RB2. Skattebo had an elite season from a production standpoint in his final season at Arizona State. He rushed for over 1,700 yards, 605 receiving yards, 21 rushing scores, and three receiving touchdowns. That translated to Skattebo's 80 percent Running Back Dominator (RB Dom) in 2024.
Skattebo ranked seventh in RB Dom in 2024, with the fifth-best RB Dom in his career. He had an elite 18 percent receiving yardage market share, tying him with Lan Larison. That indicates Skattebo can handle an every-down workload. When including draft capital, weight, and college production, his top comparisons include Jones, Justin Jackson, Devontae Booker, Jeremy McNichols, and Duke Johnson. Skattebo had a balanced profile like those running backs, but only Jones and Johnson had careers beyond having a few fantasy-relevant weeks.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., 98.1ADP, RB35
The Giants leaned on Devin Singletary early in the season. Singletary had four consecutive games with 15 or more opportunities (rushes plus targets) to open the 2024 season. After Singletary dealt with a groin injury, the rookie took over, with 13.5 PPR/G from Week 5 and beyond. Furthermore, Tracy had four games as an RB1. In Tracy's four games as an RB1, he averaged 23 opportunities per game, showing he can handle a somewhat hefty workload.
Tracy's rookie year compared closely to Rachaad White's rookie season, mainly via his receiving expected fantasy points. Tracy was an older prospect like White, but Tracy arguably had an underwhelming prospect profile after transitioning from wide receiver to running back in his final season at Purdue. He nearly matched Singletary in missed tackles forced rate, with Tracy at 17 percent. Meanwhile, Tracy (25 percent) and Singletary (33.3 percent) shared the team's rush attempts inside the five-yard line.
The Giants ranked 20th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, with the second-highest pass rate over expected in 2024. For context, the Giants trailed the Patriots (11.83 percent) in pass rate over expected while being ahead of the Steelers, Titans, and Texans within the top five teams. That indicates the Giants struggled with run-blocking and passed often in neutral game scripts.
Summary
The Giants added a fifth-round right tackle to their offensive line, with no other notable additions. That should concern us if Skattebo and Tracy can't find run-blocking lanes, leading to potentially stacked boxes. Besides Skattebo, the Giants drafted Jaxson Dart as their main offensive weapon. The Giants acquired veterans at quarterback, with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, both having downfield passing upside, fitting the profile for Malik Nabers. Tracy was already a risky running back after being drafted on Day 3. Flip a coin for Skattebo and Tracy, though both should be valuable as an RB3 on a ZeroRB team.
Commanders' Backfield
Brian Robinson Jr., 82.6 ADP, RB30
The Commanders split the snaps relatively evenly, with Robinson garnering a 52 percent snap share and Austin Ekeler at 53 percent. However, Robinson led the team with a 42 percent team rush percentage, with Ekeler garnering a team-high 12 percent target share at the running back position. That's notable because the Commanders mixed in Antonio Gibson in 2023, with a 46 percent snap share, 20 percent rush percentage, and 11 percent target share.
The visual below shows the Commanders' backfield opportunities over the past two seasons compared to the league averages.
That indicates the Commanders prefer to have a second running back paired with Robinson, especially in the receiving game. Neither Robinson nor Ekeler had mediocre missed-tackle forced rates. However, both running backs averaged over two yards before contact per attempt. That could be related to the team ranking sixth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Jayden Daniels likely contributed to the yards before contact. That's evident in Daniels facing 10.1 percent of stacked boxes, over 10 percentage points below the league average.
Meanwhile, Robinson was the priority option when taking on rush attempts inside the five-yard line. However, Robinson's percentage of rush attempts inside the five-yard line fell slightly in 2024. With the Chargers, Ekeler soaked 69.9 percent of the team's rush attempts inside the five-yard line in 2023. However, the Chargers lacked a running back like Robinson in Ekeler's final season.
Austin Ekeler, 132.6 ADP, RB48
Ekeler will remain in a shared backfield for the Commanders heading into his Year 9 season. His elite target numbers fell to 41 (No. 29) and a 12 percent target share in 2024. For context, Ekeler ranked in the top five in running back targets over the previous three seasons before 2024. He averaged 98 targets per year from 2021 to 2023.
Past research indicates that rushing quarterbacks can hinder the running back's targets, as it takes away potential short-area opportunities. That's further evident with Daniels being an elite rusher and Ekeler having the sixth-highest yards before contact per attempt at 2.75. Ekeler trailed Sean Tucker, Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Henry, and Isaac Guerendo in YBC/Att in 2024 among rushers with 50 attempts.
If Ekeler has been losing receiving opportunities and doesn't garner a high percentage of carries inside the five-yard line, what fantasy value does he provide?
Summary
The Commanders leaned toward the pass last season, ranking seventh in pass rate over expected. They drafted a tackle in the first round, with a few other depth offensive linemen. Besides their seventh-round pick of Jacory Croskey-Merritt being a deep sleeper, the Commanders kept the top three running backs on their team, including Robinson, Ekeler, and McNichols. The paths for either Robinson or Ekeler to provide value at their price involve additional receiving opportunities or a high touchdown rate. Robinson might be the best bet in this crowded backfield.
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