RADIO
Jett Williams' fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
New York Mets middle infield and center field prospect Jett Williams is now the subject of a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class.
When I saw him in the Florida Complex League finale of his 2022 pro debut, Williams sprayed line drives around the field and stole a base, truer to how he had been evaluated by the majority before the draft.
How should the professional plate profiles and other offensive outcomes posted to date impact future assessments of Williams in real-world and fantasy baseball circles?
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Prospect Analysis: Jett Williams
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
Mets picked the Texas prep right-handed batting shortstop Williams as the 14th overall selection of the 2022 MLB Draft. A $3.9 million bonus was a few hundred thousand under the slot value of the pick.
The pending 2022 pro debut spanned 46 plate appearances in the Rookie Florida Complex League. Williams impressively rated between plus and double plus at all three of BB+HBP, K Avoid, and Batted-Ball Profile. The latter featured many LD and OFFB, though not quite that many Pull OFFB relative to circuit batter qualifiers.
The smaller Williams was a little short at generating hits (72 AVG) and extra bases (61 ISO) on batted balls for his set of Path to Batted-Ball Profile marks.
Williams lines a single over the pitcher and into center field in 2022 Florida Complex League playoff action.
Williams opened 2023 with 346 PA in Low-A, where 99 BB+HBP and 92 Batted-Ball Profile Ratings sandwiched a 59 K Avoid. The batted-ball profile elements only slightly changed relative to the 2022 debut, and the same went for AVG and ISO produced.
His best pro plate work was to come in a next 162 PA had in High-A. Williams had again rated above plus at all three of BB+HBP, K Avoid, and Batted-Ball Profile, with a 100 BB+HBP leading the trio. And while the batted-ball profile elements again hardly differed versus the prior set, he generated a very loud pairing of 92 AVG and 97 ISO on Batted Balls.
The next 44 PA with the Double-A club, whose season went deeper into September than the High-A affiliate's did, saw K Avoid and Batted-Ball Profile sink to very low single-digit marks.
But before that late Double-A cameo, Williams had starred by posting Overall Ratings that would rate in the top 0.5% of Rookie league qualifiers, the top three percent of Low-A league qualifiers, and the top one percent of High-A league qualifiers. And only once has any of BB+HBP, K Avoid (which was 59 in Low-A), and Batted-Ball Profile rated less than plus.
Still more, the best hits (AVG) and extra bases (ISO) production had just been put up at the most recent High-A stop. Pitcher handedness splits were of the backward type, as the righty batter had a higher Overall against Same-Handed Pitchers at all four stops.
Williams began his 2024 with 50 plate trips in Double-A before he was shut down in late April with a painful right wrist. He would miss the next four months, around having what sounds like a soft tissue surgical procedure on the joint. In late August, he joined the Low-A club at the Mets' training complex for a week to tune up before returning to Double-A and then going up to Triple-A for the final week of MiLB play.
Williams struggled to produce LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid + Pull OFFB points over both 2024 AA stints, and thus also AVG and ISO. Louder AVG and ISO production briefly reappeared over 30 Triple-A PA to end the year, even so, with very few LD and not overly many Pull OFFB in the batted-ball profile.
Williams was sent to the Arizona Fall League to partially offset the lost four months of the 2024 regular season. He would rate not quite fully plus at BB+HBP, just below minus at K Avoid, and between average and half minus at Batted-Ball Profile. As in the abbreviated regular season, Williams hit way too many IFFB.
Very good 75 LD and 75 Pull OFFB Ratings produced a respectable 46 AVG and 60 ISO combo.
The right-handed batter especially had trouble with left-handed pitching in Arizona, as he managed only a single-digit (4) Overall against Oppo-Handed Pitchers.
Over 15 plate trips in 2025 MLB spring games, Williams drew many BB+HBP, broke roughly even at K Avoid, but just about only hit Pull GB and IFFB on batted balls.
Compared to how a much fuller 2023 season played out, Williams had some difficulty generating louder batted ball contact during his wrist-hampered 2024 three-level regular season.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
The faster Williams has generally been slower to transition from swinger to runner on batted balls, as an offshoot of his efforts to physically impact the ball. Even while stealing 45 bases in 52 tries during the 2023 season, his As Baserunner offensive running rated only roughly average (52) in runs impact relative to league peers.
While working around the wrist injury that required operative intervention during 2024, the now 5-foot-7, 175-pounder rated in the range of half to full plus as an offensive runner. Full plus offensive running as a baserunner is realistically in reach.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
Other than perhaps producing a few more hits and extra bases on batted balls at the first two stops, Williams' plate profiles could not have graded out much better than they did as he journeyed from Rookie to Low-A and onward through High-A league play.
Pro struggles of any kind only surfaced when his strikeout avoidance and batted-ball profile fundamentals plummeted over the final two weeks of 2023 in Double-A, where he was among the youngest one percent of league position players.
The wrist injury sustained during the return to Double-A to open 2024 would logically explain why batted balls were so quiet at the level, even after returning there late in 2024. The bat seemed to be coming back around to a louder status over the final week in Triple-A before it graded out more average in fall league play.
From a batted-ball profile design perspective, Williams has hit many outfield flyballs for a 5-foot-8 player. This was not so problematic before Double-A, as across the three prior levels, he hit many line drives to boost the probability of hits on batted balls. But since first landing in Double-A at the end of 2023, he has hit fewer line drives and too many sure-out infield popups.
A mix of fewer line drives, more infield popups, and more outfield flyballs to the center- and oppo-third has decreased his potential for hits on batted balls and the percentage of batted balls on which his running speed is more relevant.
If Williams cannot recapture his pre-Double-A ability to hit outfield flyballs while also generating line drives and avoiding infield popups rather well, a swing loft adjustment to lower his mean launch angle would be advisable. In such a case, some technical changes would be to help him get from home to first more efficiently.
Williams has played far more shortstop than second base, but lower fielding percentages suggest that the six-spot is more likely to end up a secondary or tertiary position. He has played 22 minor league seasons and 11 fall league games in center field, which just might be the future primary position that best uses the undersized player's plus wheels and average to better arm strength.
Dynasty fantasy players should view Williams as a 2025 buy-low trade ploy candidate in the wake of a wrist-injury-disrupted 2024. Assuming that he can find a sweeter-spot range of launch angles that optimizes potential for hits without entirely ceding extra-base chances, Williams could later be a full to one-and-a-half plus walker, average to half plus strikeout avoider, half plus hits and average extra bases producer on batted balls, and half to full plus offensive runner.
Such would put him in a position to hit second, or perhaps first, in an MLB lineup almost every day and deliver around 30 stolen bases annually.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted-Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted-Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted-Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running techniques, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
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