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Nick's 2025 fantasy football overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds of best ball drafts. NFL players with inflated ADPs to avoid in fantasy football best ball drafts.
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Those in best ball drafts don't need their early-round picks to smash every week, but they better have a great chance at it while also providing the firepower to finish at the top of their position. We don't typically want consistent, median outcomes here. Some of you might exclusively play 50/50 best ball double-ups, but this is geared more towards tournament settings. While writing about sleepers and positive outcomes is entertaining, not every player's outlook can generate profits this season. And we want your sleeper picks to complement foundational building blocks from the early rounds to construct a juggernaut. Let's look at some names whose fantasy output may struggle to meet their draft-day cost.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Here we'll be looking at some studs who I think will underperform their average draft position (ADP) and fail to deliver for fantasy teams. It will be mentioned a couple of times but please note that being overvalued does not mean the player is bad/undraftable. If they fall a round or two, especially in such early rounds, then the math changes! All ADP data used for this article is from best ball formats from aggregate ADP as of August 8, 2025.
Bucky Irving, TB - RB9, Underdog ADP: 21
Irving was stellar as a rookie and has plenty of foundational skills to build on during his second year, but the Tristan Wirfs' knee injury terrifies this Bucs fan. You don’t draft to avoid injury in best ball drafts, but that’s for future speculation, not overlooking existing injuries.
The Rachaad White groin injury does change the math a bit, but it's a short-term injury that won't affect the late-season tournament weeks. I’d be targeting others around Irving’s late second-round ADP and then snagging Chase Brown in the third, but Brown’s recent rise could have me sprinkling some Irving in. Also, Sean Tucker getting more reps should threaten Irving more than White would!
Tyreek Hill, MIA - WR12, Underdog ADP: 23
Hill has that league-winning ceiling in his recent past, so this feels dangerous to advocate in this format vs. redraft/managed drafts. However, how much can we wave off the down year on his wrist and the Tua Tagovailoa absence? How many WRs reverse declines at 31 years old?
He posted the third-fastest game speed at 22.01 mph in 2023, but topped out at 20.52 mph in Week 10 last year. His average separation score went from 0.25 in ‘22, to 0.18 in ‘23, to 0.10 last year, with his slot ASS rate nearly getting halved year-over-year (.277 to .114 to .061) and wide score going from .236 and .233 to .124.
Average separation on 20+ yard throws for Tyreek Hill by Dolphins season per @NextGenStats
2022: 2.9
2023: 3.1
2024: 1.8Vertical routes
2022: 3.0
2023: 2.9
2024: 2.3— Bears Blog Boy (@TommyK_NFLDraft) June 18, 2025
Give me Jaylen Waddle three rounds later!
Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI - WR14, Underdog ADP: 28
Harrison Jr. needs to make a leap in Year 2, but I’m not sure that Kyler Murray and this offensive scheme can provide the necessary infrastructure for that. He’s priced around players like Tee Higgins and Davante Adams, who are certified ballers in playoff-caliber offenses.
The risk-reward feels off at this cost. Per PFF, Murray only completed 44.3% of his throws beyond 10 yards last year. Compare that to Matthew Stafford (51.5%), since Adams was brought up. Stafford also had 163 of those throws, while Murray only attempted 79.
Kyler Murray has 6 total pass attempts over the deep middle since the start of 2023
1 of those is a Marvin Harrison target which happened to be caught for a TD https://t.co/YBCSafxxmI
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) July 29, 2025
It's hard to love the price when we're hoping for growth on so many fronts. We need Murray to evolve, the offense needs to get more comfortable pushing the ball downfield, chemistry between K1 and MHJ needs to improve, and
Garrett Wilson, NYJ - WR15, Underdog ADP: 29
Wilson goes right after MHJ on Underdog, but we’re left wondering if the new Jets regime will revamp how Wilson is utilized. Can Justin Fields hit Wilson over the middle of the field? Will the rushing QB generate enough volume to his No. 1 receiver to pay us off in the early third round?
Perhaps, but taking an elite quarterback or getting a boom RB2 before hammering mid-round receivers has me feeling far more comfortable with the overall build at the end. In Pittsburgh last year, Fields averaged 26 pass attempts per game.
But we can blame their style and Arthur Smith for much of that (foreshadowing?). At least we're getting Detroit influence in Tanner Engstrand here. But in his final Chicago season, Fields only averaged 28 pass attempts. It was only 21 in '22! The upward trend reflects his growth as a passer, but this is unlikely to be a voluminous aerial assault.
Terry McLaurin, WAS - WR19, Underdog ADP: 39
McLaurin has become quite the risk as he navigates an uphill climb to a payday extension. Washington should find it in their pockets to meet on the middle ground, but these negotiations bleeding into mid-August are no bueno. Ditto, James Cook’s “hold-in.”
McLaurin has played in all 17 games for four straight years, with Jayden Daniels’ arrival leading to a career-best 13 touchdowns after failing to eclipse five TDs since his 2019 rookie campaign. Daniels is elite, but 13 TDs for F1 on 82 catches is crazy.
Within that, McLaurin was tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for the lead with nine red-zone TDs. But ARSB had 31 RZ targets, and McLaurin only had 14. Hyperefficient years can happen, but regression is the real reason to fade, though the contract dispute doesn’t help.
DK Metcalf, PIT - WR26, Underdog ADP: 47
Metcalf just had a promising start to the ‘24 season torpedoed by an MCL injury. And then he was traded to a double-whammy of X receiver hell in Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith at the helm.
He’s the field-stretcher who should absorb George Pickens’ high-aDOT looks, only Pickens never scored more than five TDs in a season. Rodgers just posted a sorry 41.7% completion rate on throws of 10 yards or more. The answer and early buzz being quick slants is not what this writer loves to hear.
How does Aaron Rodgers’ skillset fit DK Metcalf’s game?
“How quickly he releases the ball and me getting off the line of scrimmage fast is one thing that stands out first.”
Expect a lot of quick slants in the Steelers’ passing game this year. pic.twitter.com/1UKpyqtOXQ
— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) June 11, 2025
Alvin Kamara, NO - RB19, Underdog ADP: 56
Kamara is the priciest Saint, with Chris Olave not far behind. I like the general volume argument for both, but Olave has the ceiling advantage from an age and position standpoint. Kamara is entering his ninth NFL campaign, having topped 1,150 total yards in every season thus far, but he hasn’t scored double-digit TDs since 2020.
He once again got banged up and hasn’t played in more than 15 games since his rookie year. It’s understandable to sit there with a robust-WR start, or a WR-WR-QB-TE kind of build, and want Kamara’s range of outcomes.
But a depressing Saints offense for a guy with durability woes that have been outweighed by efficiency and receiving work can make for a poor bet once we near the age-30 season.
RJ Harvey, DEN - RB21, Underdog ADP: 61
Harvey’s price point rubs me the wrong way because I try not to lean on injury-prone labels for a guy like J.K. Dobbins as a reason to keep buying. I can appreciate that Harvey’s odds of being the team’s RB1 late in the year for back-weighted best ball contests are something to respect, though. I will concede that first splash of preseason action did help Harvey's outlook.
However, the scouting reports and early camp buzz around his iffy pass protection chops are harsh at ADP. This isn't a "Ja'Marr Chase can't see the football" style of cold water analysis, but we will acknowledge that things can change. If Harvey wasn't going with names who are useful from Weeks 1-18 and potential back-loaded production was worth the price, then I'd be in.
Kaleb Johnson, PIT - RB23, Underdog ADP: 67
Johnson falls into the same bucket, though he’s had some encouraging reports of improving during back-on-backer drills of late. He’s putting in the work to learn from veteran Jaylen Warren, but at the end of the day, whoever gives Aaron Rodgers the best chance at not getting hit is going to be the RB on the field most often.
Johnson can make improvements, but it is difficult to see him surpassing Warren in that department. The trust of Rodgers historically goes a long way, so we lean towards the vet rather than the rookie in this case. (Also, Kenneth Gainwell is a reputable thorn in the side of the playing time rotation.)
TreVeyon Henderson is one of the best pass pro RB prospects that we’ve seen in a while (and Rhamondre Stevenson is an old regime guy who didn’t look nearly as good as Dobbins did last year), yet Henderson goes only a few picks before Harvey on most sites. Just be mindful of non-fantasy factors when it comes to earning reps.
