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Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the BMW Championship. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the BMW Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Wilmington Country Club
7,534 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass
The PGA Tour will head to Wilmington Country Club for the first time in history, which gives us another one of these no-stat, difficult-to-dissect venues where interpreting the course might come down to a gut feeling versus a statistical metric.
Designed by Robert Trent Jones, Wilmington is a tree-lined venue that accentuates a parkland feel, but it also creates a "this or that" mentality since golfers can take multiple routes off the tee. The narrow fairways and thick rough would appear to highlight the need to locate the shortgrass, but since everyone in the field is going to find trouble with their driver, it almost feels as if a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be a better approach to take since the trees are positioned far enough off the fairway that they don't always come into play, and the ability to carry the sand traps should only help to pick an open spot and rip away.
The course has four water hazards that will need to be avoided, and the 90+ bunkers can come into play heavily off the tee, but these greens are so large that anyone missing the putting surface is likely already behind the eight-ball when it comes to scoring. Three-putt avoidance is worth a look because there will be some zip to the Bentgrass surface, but I am taking a unique approach where I am trying to find the golfers that can bomb away off the tee and hit a target (whether in the rough or fairway) that avoids second-shot tree issues. We saw a similar approach from Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff at Winged Foot during the 2020 U.S. Open, and I wouldn't be shocked if that game plan works its way back into the mix at this week's BMW Championship.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Wilmington | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 282 | |
| Driving Accuracy | 62% | |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Tee-To-Green (30%)
Strokes Gained Total Bent (12.5%)
Partial Recalculation Par 4 To Mimic Wilmington (15%)
Weighted Par-Five (12.5%)
Weighted Total Driving (10%)
Bunker GIR + ATG/3-Putt (10%)
Total Drive + Rough Proximity (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Rory McIlroy ($10,500) - Ownership will likely reach nuclear levels on most big names when you get a 69-player event that features the top-priced golfer at $10,500, but that doesn't mean anyone should be immediately removed from the fray. McIlroy always does his best work at tree-lined venues, and the first-place marks in weighted par-five and driving distance are both undoubtedly intriguing, but I am going to need to see some reduction in ownership before wanting to bite the bullet. It doesn't hurt that a strong case can be made for Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas being better plays on the surface, even if we are viewing this in an ownership agnostic way, and the ceiling does present some red flags at 25%+.
Jon Rahm ($10,300) - We are too early into the week to take much away from these early projections, but I have a hard time imagining that Rahm doesn't start to fall into more of that 15% range before Thursday. The recent metrics are going to hold a lot of DFS users up since he is over 41 spots worse on approach when comparing his baseline numbers versus his past 24 rounds, but the Spaniard put most of those doubts to rest by gaining eight shots tee-to-green, including two of those coming with his irons at the St. Jude Championship. Don't be shocked if Rahm wins and heads into the finale as the top golfer, and don't be surprised if he does it at sub-15 percent ownership.
Justin Thomas ($10,100) - If I am planning to eat chalk up top, I'd prefer doing it with Justin Thomas because of his short game mastery that should be propelled by his ability to bomb away off the tee. While Thomas wasn't perfect at the St. Jude Championship, he did gain in all critical non-putting categories, and the driver looked impressive to the tune of gaining three shots. The America is starting to see his health turn back around, and he is the only golfer in the field to rank inside the top-10 for both scrambling metrics and weighted tee-to-green.
Will Zalatoris ($10,000) - I will be proven wrong on a Will Zalatoris fade if Wilmington plays with more importance on iron play than I weighed for the week, but we saw the driver get wonky on Sunday at the St. Jude Championship - a critical factor since he ranks outside the top-35 in this field for GIR percentage out of fairway bunkers and rough proximity.
As of Monday:
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) - The leverage will be there for Patrick Cantlay, who has shown immense upside in the past on Bentgrass, but I worry about the proximity numbers in my model that rank him outside the top 50. When we add that to his 67th-place rank in my reweighed metric that included GIR percentage out of bunkers, around the green and three-putt percentage, there is a risk that the leverage created isn't worth the risk.
*** There is enough early momentum on Cantlay in the sharper markets that I am willing to re-evaluate the situation. Consider him a maybe versus a no in my eyes.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,800) - I liked Scottie Scheffler last week in Memphis, but there will always be red flags with him on a Bermuda complex. The American gained 1.73 strokes ball-striking on day one at the St. Jude but managed to post a ridiculous total of negative-4.64 shots with the flat stick. The metrics did go south with his irons on Friday, but it is important to note that he ranks second in this field in total drive + rough proximity, and he is also inside the top-five for GIR percentage. Consider this a bounce-back spot with him off Bermuda, and the ceiling is high for him to regain his early-season form.
Tony Finau ($9,700) - Tony Finau might end up becoming a fade again if these numbers don't normalize over the next few days in popularity, but while I would prefer to target Scheffler or Schauffele, Finau has the metrics needed to continue his blistering pace.
Xander Schauffele ($9,600) - Numbers are always bound to change, but Schauffele is presenting the best early leverage opportunity for anyone priced at $9,000 or above. The two-time winner in his past four events is the number one ranked golfer in safety in this field, and the upside is enticing to take shots with him in GPPs if he is going to be the odd-man out on the slate in popularity.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) - Yes, Fitzpatrick sees a massive decrease in my expected tee-to-green projection versus his baseline totals, but as is the case for me weekly, something about re-running numbers for the Englishman doesn't work out well on my model. I do believe he is in play as a potential option to consider, but let's see where some of the data trends over the next few days.
Collin Morikawa ($9,400) - The weighted tee-to-green upgrade for Collin Morikawa is enticing, but his combination of increased popularity and overall middling metrics does make me want to look in a different direction.
Sam Burns ($9,300) - Sam Burns ranks fifth on Bentgrass in this field over his past 50 rounds, and he also has the scrambling ability to make up for some of his poor proximity totals out of the rough. My final decision will come down to if he can be around 10%.
Viktor Hovland ($9,200) - The upside numbers are there for Viktor Hovland, and the 26-spot improvement when mimicking the stats for Wilmington versus a random course does highlight the potential that he might be able to use his iron proximity as a massive boost. Hovland is on a shortlist of options I am considering as an outright.
Sungjae Im ($9,100) - The putter has picked up steam over his past four starts, and it is now a matter of him putting all the pieces together at once. Like Hovland, Sungjae does have some outright appeal, but there are only so many names near the top that we can take this week. He likely won't make my card, but he should be inside my DFS player pool.
Joohyung Kim ($9,000) - It is the first tournament where Joohyung Kim might be disadvantaged because of his lack of length. This will be his seventh start in a row, and some of the Bentgrass and par-five numbers add to the overall negative traits my model is finding on him at the BMW.
As of Monday:
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
The Cameron Young ($8,900) situation is exactly the same that we saw with Will Zalatoris last week. Yes, the public will be all over Young, but he is number one in my model and someone I will try to find a way to play if we can avoid the disastrous outcome of this creeping past 30%. Most other choices will come down to ownership from this range, but the upside of Shane Lowry ($8,700) and Corey Conners ($8,300) present two of the more intriguing GPP targets - especially Conners.
As of Monday:
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
The list removes all players outside the top-30 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.
*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
All the players below were inside the top-50 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.
Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:
$10,000 - Jon Rahm ($10,300)
$9,000 - Scottie Scheffler ($9,800)
$8,000 - Cameron Young ($8,900) - If ownership is so out of control that it becomes counterintuitive to play Young, Conners and Lowry are both extremely interesting pivots
$7,000 - Taylor Pendrith/Davis Riley/Keegan Bradley
$6,000 - I will be taking a deeper dive into the 6k range.
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