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DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - BMW Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Advice (2022)

Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the BMW Championship on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy. 

Thanks again for all the support, and don't miss out on all our top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles produced by the entire RotoBaller squad. 

Featured Promo: Golf is back! Come join the fun and win big with RotoBaller. Get our full-season PGA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off! Our exclusive DFS Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections and weekly DFS/betting articles! Sign Up Now!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

 

Wilmington Country Club

7,534 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

The PGA Tour will head to Wilmington Country Club for the first time in history, which gives us another one of these no-stat, difficult-to-dissect venues where interpreting the course might come down to a gut feeling versus a statistical metric.

Designed by Robert Trent Jones, Wilmington is a tree-lined venue that accentuates a parkland feel, but it also creates a "this or that" mentality since golfers can take multiple routes off the tee. The narrow fairways and thick rough would appear to highlight the need to locate the shortgrass, but since everyone in the field is going to find trouble with their driver, it almost feels as if a bomb-and-gouge mentality might be a better approach to take since the trees are positioned far enough off the fairway that they don't always come into play, and the ability to carry the sand traps should only help to pick an open spot and rip away.

The course has four water hazards that will need to be avoided, and the 90+ bunkers can come into play heavily off the tee, but these greens are so large that anyone missing the putting surface is likely already behind the eight-ball when it comes to scoring. Three-putt avoidance is worth a look because there will be some zip to the Bentgrass surface, but I am taking a unique approach where I am trying to find the golfers that can bomb away off the tee and hit a target (whether in the rough or fairway) that avoids second-shot tree issues. We saw a similar approach from Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff at Winged Foot during the 2020 U.S. Open, and I wouldn't be shocked if that game plan works its way back into the mix at this week's BMW Championship.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Wilmington Tour Average
Driving Distance 282
Driving Accuracy 62%
GIR Percentage 65%
Scrambling Percentage 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Tee-To-Green (30%)
Strokes Gained Total Bent (12.5%)
Partial Recalculation Par 4 To Mimic Wilmington (15%) 
Weighted Par-Five (12.5%)
Weighted Total Driving (10%)
Bunker GIR + ATG/3-Putt (10%)
Total Drive + Rough Proximity (10%)

I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group:

Rory McIlroy ($10,500) - Ownership will likely reach nuclear levels on most big names when you get a 69-player event that features the top-priced golfer at $10,500, but that doesn't mean anyone should be immediately removed from the fray. McIlroy always does his best work at tree-lined venues, and the first-place marks in weighted par-five and driving distance are both undoubtedly intriguing, but I am going to need to see some reduction in ownership before wanting to bite the bullet. It doesn't hurt that a strong case can be made for Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas being better plays on the surface, even if we are viewing this in an ownership agnostic way, and the ceiling does present some red flags at 25%+.

Jon Rahm ($10,300) - We are too early into the week to take much away from these early projections, but I have a hard time imagining that Rahm doesn't start to fall into more of that 15% range before Thursday. The recent metrics are going to hold a lot of DFS users up since he is over 41 spots worse on approach when comparing his baseline numbers versus his past 24 rounds, but the Spaniard put most of those doubts to rest by gaining eight shots tee-to-green, including two of those coming with his irons at the St. Jude Championship. Don't be shocked if Rahm wins and heads into the finale as the top golfer, and don't be surprised if he does it at sub-15 percent ownership.

Justin Thomas ($10,100) - If I am planning to eat chalk up top, I'd prefer doing it with Justin Thomas because of his short game mastery that should be propelled by his ability to bomb away off the tee. While Thomas wasn't perfect at the St. Jude Championship, he did gain in all critical non-putting categories, and the driver looked impressive to the tune of gaining three shots. The America is starting to see his health turn back around, and he is the only golfer in the field to rank inside the top-10 for both scrambling metrics and weighted tee-to-green.

Will Zalatoris ($10,000) - I will be proven wrong on a Will Zalatoris fade if Wilmington plays with more importance on iron play than I weighed for the week, but we saw the driver get wonky on Sunday at the St. Jude Championship - a critical factor since he ranks outside the top-35 in this field for GIR percentage out of fairway bunkers and rough proximity.

 

As of Monday:

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Patrick Cantlay ($9,900) - The leverage will be there for Patrick Cantlay, who has shown immense upside in the past on Bentgrass, but I worry about the proximity numbers in my model that rank him outside the top 50. When we add that to his 67th-place rank in my reweighed metric that included GIR percentage out of bunkers, around the green and three-putt percentage, there is a risk that the leverage created isn't worth the risk.

*** There is enough early momentum on Cantlay in the sharper markets that I am willing to re-evaluate the situation. Consider him a maybe versus a no in my eyes. 

Scottie Scheffler ($9,800) - I liked Scottie Scheffler last week in Memphis, but there will always be red flags with him on a Bermuda complex. The American gained 1.73 strokes ball-striking on day one at the St. Jude but managed to post a ridiculous total of negative-4.64 shots with the flat stick. The metrics did go south with his irons on Friday, but it is important to note that he ranks second in this field in total drive + rough proximity, and he is also inside the top-five for GIR percentage. Consider this a bounce-back spot with him off Bermuda, and the ceiling is high for him to regain his early-season form.

Tony Finau ($9,700) - Tony Finau might end up becoming a fade again if these numbers don't normalize over the next few days in popularity, but while I would prefer to target Scheffler or Schauffele, Finau has the metrics needed to continue his blistering pace.

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) - Numbers are always bound to change, but Schauffele is presenting the best early leverage opportunity for anyone priced at $9,000 or above. The two-time winner in his past four events is the number one ranked golfer in safety in this field, and the upside is enticing to take shots with him in GPPs if he is going to be the odd-man out on the slate in popularity.

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) - Yes, Fitzpatrick sees a massive decrease in my expected tee-to-green projection versus his baseline totals, but as is the case for me weekly, something about re-running numbers for the Englishman doesn't work out well on my model. I do believe he is in play as a potential option to consider, but let's see where some of the data trends over the next few days.

Collin Morikawa ($9,400) - The weighted tee-to-green upgrade for Collin Morikawa is enticing, but his combination of increased popularity and overall middling metrics does make me want to look in a different direction.

Sam Burns ($9,300) - Sam Burns ranks fifth on Bentgrass in this field over his past 50 rounds, and he also has the scrambling ability to make up for some of his poor proximity totals out of the rough. My final decision will come down to if he can be around 10%.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200) - The upside numbers are there for Viktor Hovland, and the 26-spot improvement when mimicking the stats for Wilmington versus a random course does highlight the potential that he might be able to use his iron proximity as a massive boost. Hovland is on a shortlist of options I am considering as an outright.

Sungjae Im ($9,100) - The putter has picked up steam over his past four starts, and it is now a matter of him putting all the pieces together at once. Like Hovland, Sungjae does have some outright appeal, but there are only so many names near the top that we can take this week. He likely won't make my card, but he should be inside my DFS player pool.

Joohyung Kim ($9,000) - It is the first tournament where Joohyung Kim might be disadvantaged because of his lack of length. This will be his seventh start in a row, and some of the Bentgrass and par-five numbers add to the overall negative traits my model is finding on him at the BMW.

 

As of Monday:

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

The Cameron Young ($8,900) situation is exactly the same that we saw with Will Zalatoris last week. Yes, the public will be all over Young, but he is number one in my model and someone I will try to find a way to play if we can avoid the disastrous outcome of this creeping past 30%. Most other choices will come down to ownership from this range, but the upside of Shane Lowry ($8,700) and Corey Conners ($8,300) present two of the more intriguing GPP targets - especially Conners. 

 

As of Monday:

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top-30 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

*** The names showing would be my early leans that I am going to take a deeper dive on over the next few days.

 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top-50 in one of the two iterations and also positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete breakdown of the field, but this condensed things down nicely as a first run.

 

Early Lean For Favorite Player in Each Range:

$10,000 - Jon Rahm ($10,300)
$9,000 - Scottie Scheffler ($9,800)
$8,000 - Cameron Young ($8,900) - If ownership is so out of control that it becomes counterintuitive to play Young, Conners and Lowry are both extremely interesting pivots
$7,000 - Taylor Pendrith/Davis Riley/Keegan Bradley
$6,000 - I will be taking a deeper dive into the 6k range.

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early Week 4 Half-PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, Khalil Herbert, Keenan Allen, Gabriel Davis

It's already Week 4, and there's a lot of injuries to work through, but as always we're here to help you set some winning lineups. Below you'll find our Week 4 fantasy football half-PPR rankings for fantasy football, as of September 27th. Our goal as always is to help you set those winning lineups, so... Read More


Cordarrelle Patterson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Tape Tells All: Analyzing Cordarrelle Patterson's Week 3 Performance

Welcome back to Tape Tells All, the weekly series where I look at film and data for something that happened in the NFL this week. Today, I want to look at a player who set a new career-high in rushing yards in Week 3: Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson. In Week 3, Patterson had... Read More


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Offensive Line Champs and Chumps - Fantasy Football Matchups To Target, Avoid (Week 4)

Three weeks of the NFL season are done and scoring remains down across the league. Defenses are sitting in two-high coverage shells, forcing offenses to lean on the run game to try and open up the pass. Week 3 was the worst week of the season in terms of significant offensive line injuries. The Chargers... Read More


justin fields fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

NextGen Stats - Quarterback Breakdowns and Takeaways

You can officially start panicking. We're already through three weeks of the year, and by next Monday at this time, you'll be looking at the schedule to realize that a quarter of the season is already behind us. It sucks, but it means there are still three more quarters ahead of us! Yay! To gain... Read More


Rashaad Penny - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The Cut List – Who to Drop for Week 4?

We've all heard the, "if it ain't broken, don't fix it" statement, but no fantasy football roster is ever perfect. Fantasy managers should constantly be tinkering with the bottom of their roster. Don't be afraid of making moves and part of that is figuring out who is cuttable. All of these start/sit and who to... Read More


Samaje Perine - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 4 Waiver Wire Rankings - Fantasy Football Pickups Include Alexander Mattison, Michael Gallup, Romeo Doubs, Samaje Perine

Welcome to Week 4 RotoBallers, and another round of waiver wire pickups! We have seen new injuries emerge for fantasy football, and players who may be breaking out. As you consider who to pickup for your rosters, as always we're here to help you sift through it. Each week our NFL team puts out a... Read More


MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

Fantasy Basketball Category Studs: Blocks And Steals

Blocks and steals, the two defensive stats used in typical category leagues, may seem secondary but they are just as important to manage as rebounds or assists, and they should not be overlooked. Yes, it feels cool to grab all the guys who can score points and average double-doubles, but if you aren't rostering players... Read More


Thunder Dan's 2023 Draft Rankings: Fantasy Basketball

I am quite possibly more excited for this NBA season than I have been for any previous season since I was a kid. I grew up watching the golden age of the NBA in the '80s and '90s and have been an NBA fan ever since. But this season is hopefully going to be like... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Centers (Part 3)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


Alex Burns' 2022-23 Fantasy Basketball Rankings and Draft Analysis

I know what you're probably thinking."Fantasy basketball rankings in September? We haven't even begun training camp. Does he have nothing better to do with his time?" While I do find myself suffering from significant boredom during the NBA offseason, I want to clarify one thing: It is NEVER too early to begin discussing fantasy hoops.... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Centers (Part 2)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Centers (Part 1)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards (Part 3)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards (Part 2)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Forwards (Part 1)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards (Part 3)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards (Part 2)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More


2022-23 Fantasy Basketball - Early ADP Analysis: Guards (Part 1)

A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who are overvalued while finding gems buried down the ADP leaderboard. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. The perfect steal can give you a magnificent advantage. Today, let's talk about some players whose ADPs makes little sense given their projections--for the good... Read More