Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Houston Open

November 3, 2020

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Houston Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Brian Gay captured his fifth career PGA Tour title at the Bermuda Championship, outlasting Wyndham Clark in a playoff to get the job done. While the venue did seem like a good fit for the 48-year-old, which was evident by his third-place showing at Port Royal in 2019, it was difficult to expect this result with his current form. In his 11 previous events since the restart, Gay had only made two cuts and had failed to finish inside the top-25 in any of those starts.

Our recommendations inside of this piece were hit-and-miss, but we did correctly pinpoint Ryan Armour, Michael Gligic and Ollie Schniederjans inside the $6,000 range. The same can't be said with failed suggestions of Justin Suh and Brian Stuard, but it was always going to be tough sledding with the top of the board we were given.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Houston Open

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

Houston Open - PGA DFS Overview

Memorial Park

7,432 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

Another week, another guessing game for a venue that hasn't been inside the PGA Tour rotation since 1963. Most statistical points will have to be done by taking an educated guess, but it doesn't mean we can't locate some hidden data based on the information we have on hand.

One of the few municipal golf courses on the tour's rotation, Memorial Park measures in at over 7,400 yards and features five par-fives. The municipal element is an interesting nugget for a few reasons, most notably because it costs under $30 to play here for adults and $10 if you are under 18. That should mean the difficulty of what should be expected will be minimal, and I'd expect distance off the tee to play a significant factor after Tom Doak's renovation got rid of most of the fairway bunkers.

The greens will most likely be sped up to help players get adjusted to Augusta next weekend, and while undulations and things of that nature won't be nearly as pronounced as we will see in a week, I do believe the Houston Open will give golfers a nice corollary into what they should expect at the Masters. Overall, length and short games look like they might rule the day, and I will be handicapping the contest in that fashion.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Tyrrell Hatton at 16/1, Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama and Tony Finau at 18/1 and Viktor Hovland at 25/1.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off The Tee 20%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 10%
• Driving Distance 17.5%
• Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
• GIR 15%
• L100 Bermuda Putting 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Around the Greens 10%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

Dustin Johnson will be making his first start since the U.S. Open in September and his first appearance since contracting COVID-19 a few weeks ago. On the surface, Memorial Park does seem like a friendly layout that should highlight Johnson's strengths, but one has to wonder how much prep work will go into getting prepared for Augusta throughout his four days in Houston. As a side note, of the golfers that have tested positive so far for the virus, Johnson is one of the only ones who has experienced symptoms. You have to wonder if it has affected his practice time leading into the week, which could impact his performance in his first start back. I am not expecting a poor showing out of the top-ranked player in the world, but the victory you are paying up for might not be in the cards. That doesn't mean we should ignore him entirely, but it just suggests we should somewhat temper expectations.

Tony Finau ($10,900)

I am not sure I could create a better venue for Tony Finau. Open fairways with not much danger mixed with a need for around the green prowess to save par when trouble does come into play... it feels like a spot where the 31-year-old should pounce. The perceived lack of win equity continues to be an issue for the Utah native, but the narrative has been beaten home so often that it almost provides a contrarian approach to lineups when you select Finau at a price tag that is over $10,000.

Brooks Koepka ($10,600)

Brooks Koepka served as a player consultant on the renovation for Memorial Park, giving Tom Doak the idea to remove most fairway bunkers because they weren't penalizing enough for PGA Tour players. Look, I get it. Koepka has first-hand knowledge of the property and looked respectable in his comeback tournament from surgery at the CJ Cup, but asking him to win this event is another story. I am not a believer that the American only shows up for major championships, but in this case, his eyes will be looking past a title in Houston.

Tyrrell Hatton ($10,300)

Bermuda greens, long iron proximity and overall birdie capabilities accentuate the good side of what we should expect from Tyrrell Hatton in Houston, but a recent run of poor around the green totals does make Hatton more of a danger than usual. I am still going to play the Englishman because he ranks fourth in my DFS model, but Hatton probably makes for a better GPP target because of some of the erratic behavior hs exhibits.

Hideki Matsuyama($10,000)

Is there a player that is more invariant with what he does than Hideki Matsuyama? Superb ball-striking often gets undone by poor putting, and the move to tricky Bermuda greens might not provide the answer he is looking to find. We can go on and on about Matsuyama's consistency and ability to record top-25 finishes, but we are going to need more than that at his $10,000 DraftKings salary. Matsuyama might be someone to keep in mind for next week's Masters if we experience a price-drop that places him into the $8,000 range, but I won't find myself biting here.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Scottie Scheffler ($9,600)

I bypassed discussing Viktor Hovland and realize it will draw notice from some reading this article. I don't want it to be taken that I view Hovland as a fade, but I will note that I do have him marginally overpriced. The Danish sensation is a safer option if you are trying to locate a golfer in this range that is less likely to burn you, but I prefer upside, which I see in Scottie Scheffler. Since his positive COVID-19 test before the U.S. Open, the American has had a slow restart with multiple finishes outside the top-25, but his 17th-place result at the ZOZO Championship is a good sign that things are looking back up. Scheffler is a birdie-maker who will often outscore his finishing position, and the overall appeal leaves us with a golfer that has multiple ways to pay off his salary.

Russell Henley ($9,400)

Russell Henley's success in Houston is part of the reason he enters the week at $9,400 on DraftKings, but should we be hesitant that his going rate is incorporating too much weight from his past showings at old venues? My answer: YES! I've been known to be more bearish on Henley than the rest of the industry, but I have a difficult time accepting the fact that this week's layout benefits his skillset. Henley lacks length and par-five scoring upside, and I worry most DFS users will fall into the trap because they have seen him reel off sixth straight top-27 finishes. I'm not putting it past him to crack out another top-25 showing, but I would be surprised if he approaches his top-10 price tag.

Sungjae Im ($9,300)

Seventh in DraftKings points per contest is where Sungjae Im sits compared to the rest of the field, making him someone that brings upside to rival his cost. Bermuda greens have been where Im has done most of his damage in the past, which is shown by him ranking 22 spots better in this field on that surface compared to his complete resume. If you remove Bermuda entirely from the equation, and we would see that disparity heighten even further.

Cameron Davis ($8,100)

At the time of writing this article, Cameron Davis is projected to be the second-highest owned player at nearly 20%. That typically is never my cup of tea in GPPs when a golfer outside the top-20 in pricing starts generating that level of ownership, but the Aussie might provide a unique case in this spot. Davis does just about everything you would hope to find at Memorial Park, and he brings a game with him that has recorded seven straight made cuts. I might end up deviating partially by making the 204th-ranked player in the world one of my cash-game staples, but the decision will probably be made based on where the ownership goes over the next few days.

James Hahn ($8,000)

I never thought I would be sitting here contemplating an $8,000 James Hahn, but here we are. Hahn has recorded three straight top-nine finishes since the start of the 2021 season, and his strength off the tee and around the greens have always been what has made him competitive at places like Quail Hollow. He will look to employ that same strategy at the Houston Open and should be considered adequately priced at a venue that can spotlight his best assets.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Harold Varner III ($7,800)

I was never convinced that Port Royal was the best fit for Harold Varner III. Name recognition made him one of the most popular plays in the field, but the 30-year-old has always thrived better at layouts that allow him to use his driver as a weapon. Varner had provided four top-29 results in his five events prior to his missed cut at the Bermuda Championship, and his ability to gain strokes around the green does place him in a better situation to find success in Houston. I expect a significant bounce-back effort.

Lee Westwood ($7,800)

Memorial Park won't exactly mimic Augusta, but similar traits might come into play that will bode well for Lee Westwood. The Englishman has only finished outside the top-20 once in his last eight starts at the Masters, and the quicker greens that simulate the speed of what to expect next week will be one of those features. Westwood will try to continue the scorching pace that has seen him provide eight straight top-35 finishes worldwide, and I wouldn't bet against him accomplishing that feat.

Sam Burns ($7,500)

It has been a wild ride with Sam Burns over the last few months. We have seen him listed as the favorite in small events, and we have gotten him as a mid-tier option in tournaments that have been a little deeper in quality. However, we haven't seen Burns enter this territory very often of being $7,500 or less, and it might provide a unique chance to grab the American as an explosive play at his price tag. His 16 percent ownership projection shows that I am not the only person intrigued, but the dip in salary has become too steep for a golfer that can putt on Bermuda and strike it off the tee at the level the 24-year-old does.

Martin Laird ($7,300)

We are three weeks removed from Martin Laird's victory in Las Vegas at the Shriners Open, and the Scottish professional will look to continue his excellent run in Houston. Golf is one of the only sports where winning is viewed as a negative, and while I do understand the thought process, $7,300 doesn't require a win to make Laird worth the price of admission.

Matt Jones ($7,200)

It feels as if we have been targeting Matt Jones frequently in this article, and I don't see a reason to get off of the train now. Jones ranks 10th in par-five birdie or better percentage and should be able to take advantage of the five par-fives that we have at the venue. He isn't the longest off the tee, but his primary strength has always been gaining strokes with his driver.

Adam Schenk ($7,100)

We might not be talking about bank-breaking results from Adam Schenk, but it has been 11 straight made weekends for the American, which includes only two of those results outside the top-55. His lack of upside does have me deploying him more for cash-games than anything else, but gamers could do a lot worse than the safety he provides in this range.

Luke List ($7,000)

Seven finishes outside the top-50 over Luke List's past eight events isn't exactly what you are hoping to see if you are considering rostering him, but could Memorial Park be just what the doctor ordered to turn the ship around? List ranks 11th compared to the field in both par-five scoring and strokes gained off the tee, and any improvement with the putter should help his stock.

Patrick Rodgers ($6,700)

The industry seems to have these ebbs and flows with Patrick Rodgers that I can't quite seem to understand. We go through portions of the year where he is one of the most popular selections and then immediately becomes unplayable. For me, Rodgers is one of the easiest golfers to evaluate because his game is tailormade for specific events. That won't help you to navigate away from his volatility, but when driving prowess and putting looks like it might mean something on paper, there is an opening for him to be had - especially when he is projected at just one percent.

Jhonattan Vegas ($6,600)

I feel like I've done a good job of avoiding this Jhonattan Vegas trap over the past few events, but we eventually reach a point where his price tag is worth the risk. Is $6,600 that number for us in Houston? It might very well be in GPP builds. I use a longer sample size than most when constructing my model, but Vegas ranks third in the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee and has still been 12th over his past 24 rounds. We will need an improvement with his putter, but Bermuda has historically been his best surface.

Will Gordon ($6,400)

I can't figure out how Will Gordon isn't posting better results. It has been nine tournaments since the American has cracked the top-25, but you aren't going to find a much better statistical fit this far down the board. Gordon grades out seventh off the tee in this field, fifth in par-three average, fifth in driving distance, seventh in GIR percentage and first in proximity from 175+ yards. A bad habit of combusting has been his undoing, but Memorial Park only has a few holes where water comes into play. He is a threat to be derailed when he enters those situations, but the upside is tantalizing when you consider his meager price tag.

John Huh ($6,300)

If you click on my model, you might notice John Huh sits third. I want to caution anyone from taking that number at face value, as I only have one tournament for him in my database. Huh didn't qualify inside the rankings during the 2020 season, and it has thrown his outlook into too bullish of a viewpoint. I decided to leave it where it was and not tinker with the data since I do believe there is value to be had at his $6,300 price tag, but it doesn't negate the fact that he isn't as robust of an option in this field as it might seem. Huh has made six of his last seven cuts on tour and ranks first in overall birdie or better percentage so far this year.

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