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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): BMW Championship

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson captured his 22nd victory on the PGA Tour in emphatic fashion, firing a record-setting 30-under par to win by 11 shots. Johnson's total placed him in rarified air alongside Ernie Els (-31) and Jordan Spieth (-30) as only the third golfer in PGA Tour history since 1950 to shoot a -30 or better.

I realize the American often catches a lot of flack for his inability to close out major championships, but his resume speaks for itself, which includes a U.S. Open title, five FedExCup wins, six WGC victories and a ridiculous 41% rate of finishing inside the top-10 in his grand slam events. Johnson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer for a reason, and it is about time we stop discrediting his career accomplishments because of only one major to his name.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizarda powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!

 

BMW Championship - PGA DFS Overview

Olympia Fields

7,343 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Poa Annua/Bentgrass

Olympia Fields will host their first PGA Tour event since the 2003 U.S. Open this weekend for the BMW Championship. It always makes things complicated with what to expect when we get a venue that hasn't been in the rotation for a few years, and it requires us to play a bit of a guessing game without detailed statistical data to back up our views.

However, that doesn't mean we can't deduce and anticipate what it will demand. The first thing that stuck out to me was that the course is measuring in at 7,343 yards. That might not seem like a ton on paper, but the par-70 nature of the event can quickly turn that length into a brutal test. That should signify long iron play will be at a premium, and golfers will most likely need a short game to account for the lower GIR percentage that will surely come into play from an extended distance.

I will be adding a good mixture of off the tee and approach to my weights, as well as driving statistics that I will gear more towards total driving. Harding Park seems like a reasonable corollary test for research purposes, but I wouldn't get so caught up that we last saw this property played as a major championship. The PGA Tour likes birdie fests during the playoffs, and there is no reason to believe the venue will be regulated towards trying to embarrass the last 70 players before East Lake.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Olympia Fields Tour Average
Driving Distance N/A 281
Driving Accuracy N/A 62%
GIR Percentage N/A 65%
Scrambling Percentage N/A 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round N/A 0.56

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Jon Rahm at 10/1, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau at 14/1 and Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy at 18/1.

 

Key Stats

  • Off the Tee + Approach 20%
  • Strokes Gained Around the Green 15%
  • Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
  • Ball Striking 15%
  • Overall Birdie or Better 12.5%
  • Scrambling 12.5%
  • Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 10%

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are six players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,500)

We continue to play musical chairs at the top of the DraftKings pricing board, and it is now Dustin Johnson that will take center stage as the man to beat. The inconsistency of the pricing shows how deep the fields are nowadays, but it also proves that we don't have a player like Tiger Woods that could be counted on for a weekly top result. If Johnson is the route you want to go, you won't hear a gripe from me - although I would argue you are overpaying because of his previous two results. That doesn't make the American a bad selection; it just makes him less of a value than others.

Jon Rahm ($11,000)

I touched on this fact last week that Jon Rahm should be an $11,000 golfer weekly, and we see him move back into that territory after a sixth-place finish at the Northern Trust. The Spaniard might be the most likely man to provide you a steady result of anyone up top, and his upside for victory is there.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

It has been a helter-skelter restart for Justin Thomas, who has provided four top-10 results and three finishes outside the top-35 in his eight starts. We always discuss how Thomas is one of the best players in the world when you give him a guaranteed four rounds, and he will get just that again at a venue that should highlight his strengths. We are grasping at straws here trying to separate the top few names, and sometimes it has to come down to which player has the best value. Thomas should theoretically be the highest priced option, which renders some value at his $10,800 tag.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,600)

I'd pump the brakes with the narrative that Bryson DeChambeau won the 2015 U.S. Amateur at this venue in 2015. Match Play is an entirely different game than what we get in stroke play competition, and while he did outlast the likes of Jon Rahm en route to the title, the word 'amateur' should mean something in describing the overall quality of the field. DeChambeau's upside is as massive as his frame to find the winner's circle once again, but I think it is essential to narrow your selection down to him for the right reasons. If you believe off the tee prowess and scoring will be the main recipe for success, DeChambeau might be your man.

Rory McIlroy ($10,300)

We are getting very close to where we will just have to close our eyes and hope for the best out of Rory McIlroy if we decide to take him. I'm not sure I am there yet at his $10,300 salary, but another questionable performance might shrink the Irishman into a range that is too difficult to ignore. As things stand, I am still playing the waiting game, but there is no arguing that McIlroy could get back on track at a venue that fits his skills.

Webb Simpson ($10,100)

Webb Simpson is my favorite DK play this week. His $10,100 price tag should keep him somewhat under the radar compared to the big boys up top, but his overall performance level weekly has turned him into one of the elite players in the game. Length off the tee will have some importance, but the core of what I expect Olympia Fields to require out of the golfers will be long iron proximity and the ability to scramble and avoid bogeys. There's a reason why this test was used as a U.S. Open venue, and even if the difficulty will be greatly subsided for the week, Simpson has become one of the best scorers in the world.

 

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer!

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

All I have read so far this week is that Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa should be priced higher than Xander Schauffele. I want to be careful in wording the stance I am about to take because I believe all three are elite talents that can win the tournament this weekend, but there is a massive difference between a 15% owned Schauffele and a potentially 35% owned Berger. Everyone always wants to discuss how great Schauffele is during no-cut events, but that narrative has been thrown out the window by some entering the BMW Championship. Look, I am not saying he necessarily posts a better result than either of the two previously mentioned golfers, but I am all about leveraging ownership when given the opportunity. None of that is to say I won't play Schauffele alongside a player like Berger in spots, but let's not forget about the 10th-ranked player altogether.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,000)

DraftKings has taken a bit more of an aggressive stance with Scottie Scheffler than the outright market, placing him 11th in DK position compared to his 14th place outright total. Honestly, both still feel like values for Scheffler after posting back-to-back fourth-place showings, and I am perfectly okay with jumping back on the bandwagon for another tournament.

Tiger Woods ($8,600)

No matter what Tiger Woods does from a tournament-by-tournament perspective, we will never get a deviation in pricing that will place him much lower than his current $8,600 salary. However, what we will get is a reduced level of interest from gamers that get tired of going back down the well and not getting a positive return on their investment. I don't often say this, but I think Woods is accurately priced for the BMW Championship at $8,600, which does provide upside if we believe we can acquire the 82-time PGA Tour winner at less than 10 percent ownership.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500)

When we can remove the uncertainty of a missed cut and guarantee Hideki Matsuyama four rounds of golf, he is a golfer that should be priced above $9,000 every single time. Matsuyama is an elite ball-striker, and I struggle to justify him not being a top-15 priced option on the board. He makes enough birdies to usually pay off his price tag, which completely denounces the narrative that he can't win. We don't need that from him at a mid-$8,000 total.

Adam Scott ($8,200)

Adam Scott doesn't get a pass for his four-over round on Saturday at the Northern Trust because we have seen this story one too many times, but his negative-5.315 strokes on the greens was a little out of leftfield with what we have seen from him over the past year. Scott has gained strokes with his flat stick in seven of his previous 10 tournaments, and he even managed to only lose 1.9 strokes in total after his disastrous round three effort. Scott's ball-striking is there, and we could see him bounce back in a big way.

Viktor Hovland ($8,100)

It was a relatively quiet 68 and 66 from Viktor Hovland over the weekend at the Northern Trust, but it seems to have caught the attention of the DFS world. Hovland's long iron prowess and total driving skills could make him a dangerous golfer this weekend in Illinois, but there are always concerns to be had over his short game. Hovland isn't immune to a poor finish, but the upside is there for him to post a top-10 result.

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Russell Henley ($7,800)

It has been a superb last two weeks for Russell Henley, who has posted back-to-back top-10 showings at the Northern Trust and Wyndham Championship. I had some concerns last weekend that the Northern Trust might be too long for his game, but he dispelled that notion with another quality ball-striking effort. I'm done questioning Henley, and his game appears to be peaking for the playoffs.

Abraham Ancer ($7,700)

I am willing to throw last week's debacle out the window for Abraham Ancer. I don't believe the 29-year-old was as bad as the stats might indicate, and it ended with him losing strokes off the tee for the first time in 11 events. I begin to worry some when the venues stretch out in length for Ancer, but it is difficult to ignore Ancer at around five percent ownership when you consider his acumen for ball striking and total driving.

Ryan Palmer ($7,600)

Make it four straight top-45 finishes from Ryan Palmer after his eighth-place showing at the Northern Trust. Palmer's lack of win equity sometimes affects his overall price tag, and I think a similar sentiment could be said in this situation. Palmer is deserving of being priced in the $8,000 range, and I will take the discount that is presented.

Jason Kokrak ($7,500)

From a pure upside perspective, Jason Kokrak is one of my favorite options on the board under $8,000. The American has provided two straight finishes inside the top-15, and he possesses the distance and ball striking game needed to make the BMW Championship the site of his first win. I am not going to go quite that far with my prediction, but I do think we can sneak in another quality finish at $7,500.

Brian Harman ($6,900)

Sure, there is no doubt that Brian Harman's around the green numbers have helped him over the last few weeks, but the 121st-ranked player in the world seems to be peaking at the right time. Harman earned strokes in all the main strokes gained stats last weekend at the Northern Trust, making it just the first time he has done that since November of 2019.

Joel Dahmen ($6,500)

Brendan Steele ($6,600) and Talor Gooch ($6,600) are two options that I do like under $7,000, but each man is projected to carry over 15% ownership for the week. For that reason, I prefer keeping them inside my cash-game range and attempting to go a little outside of the box with Joel Dahmen. The 32-year-old is grading out nearly identical for me to his two listed counterparts, and I believe his projected 10% reduction in ownership makes him a much better GPP pivot to consider.

 

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team: Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.

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Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses some Quarterbacks that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Value Plays: Week 3 Bargain Bin for DraftKings Including Reid Sinnett, Marcell Ateman, Cody Latimer, More

Welcome to the Week 3 edition of RotoBaller's UFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players in DraftKings' Week 3 UFL contests. Each week during the UFL 2024 season and postseason, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit for DraftKings'... Read More