RADIO
Bruce Clark provides his rationale for several players you should fade or draft in 2024 fantasy football.
It's the best time of the year. Everyone has high hopes and high expectations for their real teams in the NFL and their fictional ones in fantasy. With only a few days away from the NFL season kicking off, the wisdom of the crowd has impacted average draft positions and perspectives of elite players. These pieces of data are easily found by searching on your draft site of choice.
But the true edge in fantasy football is not in the wisdom of the crowd but in finding where the crowd is wrong. This is the tough part -- how can you tell who to fade or who to rise in the era of nearly infinite information?
You don't have to be right in every bold prediction -- just enough to find the edges to gain a competitive advantage. Some of these predictions may not be what you think will happen -- but I am certainly following these in every league I'm in. Read ahead and see where I think the crowd has it wrong and where it seems the data suggests where to zag as opposed to zig.
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Prediction 1: Saquon Barkley Finishes Outside the Top 15 RBs
Barkley was viewed as an exciting signing by the Philadelphia Eagles when they agreed on a contract on the first day of free agency, and the excitement followed into fantasy draft season. The new Eagle has climbed draft boards, currently going as a top-five or six running back in Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper drafts -- which I believe to be a reach.
The former Giant is going to be a better player for the team in real life than in fantasy football, largely due to Barkley likely losing the most valuable touches for a running back: receptions and goal-line touches.
Jay Croucher shares his concerns when it comes to drafting Saquon Barkley in fantasy.
NBC Sports | @Applebees pic.twitter.com/tdR6k9Kbxa
— Rotoworld Football (@rotoworld_fb) August 28, 2024
Last season, the top 15 running backs in fantasy finished with an average of 51.4 receptions on 64.9 targets; compare those numbers to the running backs finishing as RB16-30 (36.3 receptions on 47.1 targets). Meanwhile, since quarterback Jalen Hurts took over in Philadelphia, the Eagles have been bottom-6 in the NFL in both running back targets and receptions -- approximately 17 targets and receptions per season short of the league average in that span.
Additionally, Hurts has had a tremendous amount of goalline touches since 2021, more than any other player the Eagles have had in that span. Last season, the average top-15 fantasy running back had 12 carries inside the opponent's five-yard line, converting them to an average of five rushing touchdowns.
However, with the tush-push being as common and effective for Philadelphia as it has been, Hurts averaged 16 carries inside the opponent's five-yard line and gained an average of 9.6 touchdowns in those carries each of the last three seasons.
Barkley is very unlikely to have his Giants' success in the air and on the goalline, primarily due to how the Eagles have historically played. For the running back to match his draft capital, Philadelphia will have to play radically different than they have had in recent years, or Barkley would have to be uniquely effective on the ground. It's possible, but I would argue that it is not probable.
Prediction 2: David Montgomery Outperforms His Draft Position (and Jahymr Gibbs Doesn't)
The Detroit Lions have one of the most dominant (and truly fun) offenses to watch in the league, bolstered by their two-headed rushing attack of Montgomery and Gibbs. The 2023 Lions had both players finish as RB1s, with the electric Gibbs and the powerful Montgomery complimenting each other perfectly. And yet, Gibbs is drafted within the top-seven of running backs and Montgomery can oftentimes be drafted outside of the top 50 overall.
The Lions have had two consecutive seasons with a top rushing attack under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, being one of only three teams to have gained 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground each of those years. Montgomery filled the 2022 Jamaal Williams role very well for the team, being the battering ram for the effective Lions and finishing the year with over 1000 yards rushing and 13 rushing touchdowns.
We are just over a week away from 95% of the fantasy football community complaining about David Montgomery and Tyler Allgeier being relevant once again. 🔥pic.twitter.com/s57vmYVU5x
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) August 30, 2024
Gibbs, meanwhile, had an incredible rookie season in 2023, putting up over 900 yards rushing and adding 300 yards receiving with an impressive 11 touchdowns. Since his rookie season was as productive as it was, there's an expectation of further improvement in his sophomore season -- which, therefore, suggests a reduction in role and responsibility for Montgomery. There's no real reason to suggest Montgomery will have a role reduction aside from the fact that Gibbs is younger.
One of the main reasons Gibbs is drafted so highly this year is because of his work in the air, which is fair; he's an explosive pass-catcher and has been used out wide and not just running routes from the backfield last season. However, given the expected target share of wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta, and (theoretical) ascension of playmaker Jameson Williams, I wouldn't necessarily expect a dramatic increase in receiving work for Gibbs.
Meanwhile, betting odds from DraftKings suggest the Lions are expected to be one of the best teams in the league, as they are one of eight teams with at least 10.5 expected wins. It stands to reason the Lions will be milking the clock in the second half for much of the season, just like last year; the Lions were seventh in the league in rushing and tenth in rushing rate in the second half of games last year.
Expecting that number to continue, I would also wager that Montgomery, with his size and rushing efficiency, will receive many of those attempts. Expect Montgomery and Gibbs to be within the top 15 RBs this year, with the larger body surpassing draft capital and the smaller body slightly underperforming.
Prediction 3: Brandon Aiyuk Bests His 2023 Season
BRANDON AIYUK IS STAYING IN SAN FRANCISCO.
HIS 2023 FANTASY STATS THAT GOT HIM PAID: 🤑
🔥 211.7 fantasy points
🔥 13.2 fantasy PPG
🔥 7 TDWhere are you targeting him in fantasy drafts? pic.twitter.com/yXPg4ijXwy
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) August 29, 2024
Aiyuk spent the offseason flirting with as many other teams as possible to make his current partner jealous as the talented wide receiver requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers. Just like destined lovers though, the player and team decided they needed to commit long-term and agreed on a four-year contract extension recently. I believe this will be Aiyuk's best season to date.
Aiyuk exploded last season as he finished as the overall WR14 in 2023, but what was most interesting about his year was his incredible efficiency. The 49er receiver put up 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns on only 75 receptions. Let's put that efficiency into perspective: since 2000, a player had 1,300 yards receiving in a season 154 times -- of those seasons, only one player had reached that milestone with fewer targets or fewer receptions than Aiyuk last season.
I don't believe Aiyuk will be as efficient as he was last season -- but I don't believe he needs to be. There's a solid case for negative regression in San Francisco, simply due to the intense effectiveness of their offense. Given the fact that All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey is already nursing a minor injury, the team may find themselves needing to pass more often than their league-low 28.9 passing attempts per game -- if that is the case, Aiyuk would be most likely to benefit from the increase in volume as he receives nearly a quarter of Brock Purdy's targets.
The now-wealthy wide receiver can handle a slight hit to his yardage efficiency if it comes with increased volume and touchdown luck he did not have last season. Aiyuk had two receiving touchdowns fewer than the average of the 13 receivers ahead of him in fantasy last season -- just a little more touchdown luck would have placed the 49er in the top 10 for fantasy. There's a good chance Aiyuk gets a slight bump in both targets and touchdowns this year, which would lead to him dramatically outperforming his current draft position.
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