Broncos vs. Saints TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and more

October 17, 2024

Fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em, and lineup advice for the Broncos and Saints on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 (2024). Detailed player breakdowns and TNF matchup analysis.

I hope you have been enjoying the days of Thursday Night Football games between the 49ers and Seahawks, Buccaneers and Falcons, and Cowboys and Giants. This matchup in Week 7 for Thursday night might be the least appealing of the year considering the lack of fantasy options and many injuries. We are officially now in the dregs of Thursday Night Football.

The 37-point projected total for Broncos-Saints on Thursday is the lowest for the entire Week 7 slate. The Denver Broncos are struggling to find offensive identity, and the New Orleans Saints have been hit with horrific injury luck. Bo Nix versus Spencer Rattler -- just what we want in prime time.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 7 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints - 8:20 p.m. EDT

Notable Injuries:

• Josh Reynolds - DEN WR - (Finger) - OUT
• Derek Carr - NO QB - (Oblique) - OUT
• Taysom Hill - NO TE - (Ribs) - OUT
• Chris Olave - NO WR - (Concussion) - OUT
• Rashid Shaheed - NO WR - (Knee) - OUT

Broncos vs. Saints Matchup Breakdown

The reason why the total is so low in this game is, of course, because of the immense amount of inexperience among the skill position players. But it is also low because both the Denver and New Orleans defenses have respective strengths on defense that can shut down opposing offenses.

Denver especially has been quite ferocious on defense. They rank second in the NFL in opponent red-zone attempts per game and opponent touchdowns per game. The game against Tampa Bay kind of skewed New Orleans' seasonal numbers, but it is still tied for 11th with just 2.0 offensive touchdowns allowed per contest this year.

Fans going to Thursday's game:

WEAR BLACK ⬛️

Story: https://t.co/CXbrmG3OTI pic.twitter.com/kbFj5Anvrm

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 14, 2024

It is certainly true that this game will likely have the fewest fantasy-relevant players of any Thursday night game this year. Apart from Alvin Kamara, Bo Nix at QB18 has the highest fantasy ranking of any player who is likely to suit up in this game.

Unless we get distinctly unexpected news about Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, both are unlikely to play with injuries (UPDATE: Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have been ruled out). Add that to Derek Carr being out, and Thursday night is the fantasy football waiver-wire special. However, that doesn't mean there aren't intriguing options.

Addition at 6:47 PM ET - Kendre Miller is active and will make his debut this season on Monday Night Football.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

Even with some up-and-down games, Alvin Kamara is still second among all running backs in fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. He has one game below 10 points this season and three with 19.5 or above. He is fourth in carries, first in targets, and fifth in red-zone touches.

With Olave and Shaheed likely out in this game, it doesn't matter how good Denver has been against backs, Kamara is going to get fed multiple touches.

60 career rushing TDs for the legend Alvin Kamara ⚜️#Saints pic.twitter.com/ikPg4qnNe0

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 13, 2024

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Bo Nix (QB, DEN)

Bo Nix has settled in as a top-10 quarterback each of the last two weeks thanks to a little garbage time and a lot of production with his legs. Nix has four passing touchdowns and 70 rushing yards in the last two weeks and now faces a depleted Saints defense that just gave up four passing touchdowns to Baker Mayfield and over 275 rushing yards to the Buccaneers. It sounds wild, but I would feel comfortable starting Nix in 12- or 14-team leagues.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

It hasn't been pretty at times, but Courtland Sutton is far and away the team leader in targets this year. His 47 targets are more than double any other player on the team. That's allowed him to get more than 50 yards and a touchdown in two of the last three games, and Nix will find it easier to pass in this one than he did against the Chargers on Sunday.

Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)

After back-to-back weeks with 18 touches, Javonte Williams dropped down to nine touches for 36 yards in Week 6 but still played 67% of the snaps. The other running backs aren't taking his playing time (yet), but it's Nix (who led the team in rush attempts in Week 6) who is the biggest threat to Williams.

Bub Means (WR, NO)

Bub Means came in for Chris Olave after the starter left early in the game on Sunday, and Means showed he has some legitimate talent. He earned eight targets while playing 71% of the team's snaps. That usage gained him five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown, a very Olave-like line. With both Olave and Shaheed out in this game, Means is your likely new WR1 in New Orleans.

Rookie to Rookie: Spencer Rattler connects with Bub Means for the 10-yard TD - #SAINTS TAKE THE LEAD!#TBvsNO | 📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/kQl2PGuSXL

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 13, 2024

Taysom Hill (TE, NO)

UPDATE: Taysom Hill is now OUT for Thursday night.

Taysom Hill did not play for the second straight game last week, but there is optimism he will suit up on Thursday night. If he does, expect him to be utilized all over the field in this one. Quarterback, wildcat plays, rushing plays, tight-end routes, goal-line carries. It's likely all on the table for Hill if he can give it a go. He is often a boom-or-bust play in fantasy football, but he is a known quantity for the Saints in a game where there isn't much of that going around.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich (TEs, DEN)

Adam Trautman and Greg Dulcich have 15 combined targets on the year and are TE73 and TE59 in fantasy points per game this season, respectively. Hard pass.

Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime (RBs, DEN)

Despite potentially being more explosive than Javonte Williams, neither McLaughlin nor Estime have been able to carve out a large role in the rushing pie for Denver this season. In Week 6 McLaughlin played 25% of the snaps and Estime, in his first game action, played just 4%. These two may grow into bigger roles over time, but they have rookie-hater head coach Sean Payton and Nix's rushing ability to deal with.

Troy Franklin, Devaughn Vele, and Lil'Jordan Humphrey (WRs, DEN)

Troy Franklin caught a touchdown from his Oregon Ducks teammate Nix in Week 6, but it was his first time playing more than 25% of the snaps and first time with more than 20 yards in a game this year (he finished with 31). The shower narrative may be in play here, but it's hard trusting Franklin as more than a deep league flex play right now.

TD, Troy Franklin.

First career TD for the rook.

📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/CuAGYl3jS4

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 13, 2024

Devaughn Vele has played in two of Denver's six games but has 12 catches in that time, so he is on the deep league PPR radar, but nothing else. Lil'Jordan Humphrey is an easy fade as the Broncos WR4 right now.

Mason Tipton and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (WRs, NO)

Mason Tipton and Cedrick Wilson Jr. are going to play a healthy number of snaps as they fill the WR2 and WR3 roles with Olave and Shaheed out for this game. Tipton has four games with exactly one catch and one game with two, so he can't be counted on. Wilson has three catches all season for 31 yards. Rattler may make one of these guys look good, but it's a huge roll of the dice to play either.

Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau (TEs, NO)

The two New Orleans tight ends are an interesting case study right now. Juwan Johnson gets the yards (eight catches for 80 yards in the last two games). Foster Moreau gets the touchdowns (two touchdowns this year). Good luck guessing right here against a Denver team that has allowed just 6.2 fantasy points per game to the position this season.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: Denver -2.5, Total: 37

Games like this are incredibly tough to handicap, especially considering that three of the primary offensive weapons for the Saints are likely to miss this game. We have very little tape on guys like Means or Franklin, but they may play big roles in this game. However, it's guys like Means, Franklin, Tipton, or Vele who could be the ones making a huge, difference-making play in the game.

We just don't know who the offenses want to target most. In the end, the best player in this game will be Kamara. The Saints will lean heavily on him and the backup wide receviers. Rattler should feel confident about his first performance, and I expect him to try and get Means and the tight ends involved as well.

The Saints pull out this home win with a score of New Orleans 23, Denver 17.

The Pick: Saints +2.5, OVER 37

2024 Record:
Spread (4-2), Over/Under (4-2)

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