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Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 10


Hi guys! Welcome back to Break The Slate, the article where we try to find players that can post tournament-winning scores for us each week. Last week's article featured some hits and some misses, as we struck gold with plays like Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Zach Ertz; but were hugely disappointed with the likes of Aaron Jones and Allen Robinson. Thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller, let's dig in and find some huge scores this week!

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 10.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 10 Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ CIN ($7,300)

Maybe I've been doing this quarterback thing all wrong? I'm always looking for a way to save money at the QB spot, but I bit the bullet last week and recommended the position's highest-priced player in Russell Wilson. I'm in a similar situation this week, as Lamar Jackson tops the DK salary scale at $7.3k, but is my favorite QB play on the main slate. Jackson has been truly electric for the Ravens this season. He, of course, leads the NFL in rushing among quarterbacks and his 637 yards on the ground actually places him at 11th in the NFL among ALL players. He gets a dream matchup this week against a Bengals Defense that has been horrible in all aspects of the game, but has been especially susceptible to running QBs. The Bengals are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs. Jackson torched this Cincy unit for 152 rushing yards when the teams met back in Week 6 and I look for him once again to have a huge day against the Bengals.

Jameis Winston - ARI @ TB ($6,800)

Jameis Winston is good for at least one or two "What the hell was he thinking?" plays per game, but that doesn't change the fact that he's an excellent QB for DFS purposes, as we're willing to overlook the mistakes in exchange for his continued aggression in this Bucs passing attack. Winston leads the league this season in Average Intended Air Yards at 10.8. He draws a matchup against a Cardinals Defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points and passing TDs in the NFL to opposing QBs this season. This matchup carries the highest projected point total on the main slate and Winston is an excellent stacking partner with one or both of his elite pass catchers (Evans & Godwin) in this spot.

 

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 10 Picks

Christian McCaffrey - CAR @ GB ($10,500)

Look, I'm not gonna waste your time rattling off all of Christian McCaffrey's eye-popping statistics. If you're reading this article, then you are well aware of what type of player CMC is and what he's capable of doing. So, it's not a question of if we want to roster him, but rather, can we roster him and his massive $10.5k price tag? The answer is yes...but you must be willing to make some sacrifices in other roster spots. In the spirit of that, the other two highlighted RBs in this week's article are going to be salary-saving options, but I couldn't not mention McCaffrey as a slate breaker, right?

David Montgomery - DET @ CHI ($5,300)

First up in 'value' running backs is Chicago's David Montgomery. The rookie was a pre-season fantasy darling and a player that lots of folks were excited about due to his talent and the departure of incumbent Bears RB Jordan Howard. His start to the season could be considered disappointing by many standards, but the rookie seems to be finding his footing slowly but surely. Montgomery ripped off 135 yards and a TD in Week 8 against the Chargers and posted a very respectable 22.6 DK points last week against a rugged Eagles run defense in a game that Chicago trailed throughout. He should find much easier sledding this week against a Lions Defense that is 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and has relinquished the third-most DK points in the league to opposing RBs. It's a little scary to roster a player in an offense that's this bad, but matchup, DFS price, and talent go a long way in tipping the scales toward Montgomery this week. If Chicago can find the red zone, we have to love the fact that Montgomery is second in the NFL in carries inside the five-yard line with 13, which does help boost his floor at this price.

Devin Singletary - BUF @ CLE ($5,000)

The fantasy football industry has been predicting Frank Gore's demise for roughly a decade and Gore just keeps on trucking, burying more talented backs behind him on the depth chart at every stop along the way. So, while I'm not ready to declare every coaches favorite player as being out of the picture, we have started to see something of a shift in Buffalo over the last couple of weeks. Talented rookie Devin Singletary has out-touched Gore 30 to 20 over Weeks 8 & 9, and the rookie is quickly making a case to be the man in the Bills backfield by going for 189 total yards and two TDs in Buffalo's last two games. This week the Bills square off against a Cleveland Browns team that has disappointed in every aspect of the game this season, including run defense. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, relinquishing nearly five yards per tote to opposing RBs. Perhaps more important for Singletary, who handles basically all of the Bills pass-down work and has been targeted 10 times over the last two weeks, the Browns are allowing 7.64 yards per target to opposing RBs. He's without a doubt a 'boom or bust' type of play that profiles as strictly 'GPP Only' material due to his low floor, but his explosiveness makes him an intriguing option.

 

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 10 Picks

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin - ARI @ TB ($7,600/$7,400)

Last week I highlighted Chris Godwin, but spent a good portion of his write-up talking about Mike Evans. I eventually labeled them Week 9's 1A and 1B receivers and told you to get one of them in your lineup. My advice hasn't changed this week. It ended up being Evans that once again broke the slate with 39 DK points against Seattle, while Godwin 'merely' posted 13.9. In Week 10, Godwin's matchup again 'looks better on paper', as Evans will likely have to contend with Patrick Peterson (I don't know that Peterson is a shadow that we should fear at this moment)...but you truly can't go wrong by playing either or both in this juicy matchup. Arizona is a team that we've learned to circle when we see them on the main slate, as they play at the fastest pace in the NFL and have struggled on defense. The Cards have been especially bad at slowing down opposing WRs and stand 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass. Don't overthink this one, get one or both of these Bucs receivers in your lineups in this smash spot.

Zach Pascal - MIA @ IND ($5,300)

Outside of the "Tampa Two" and some other high-priced options, wide receiver is light on 'slate breaking' options. Indy's Zach Pascal doesn't jump out as that type of player, but he has two very important things working in his favor this week: matchup and opportunity. The matchup against Miami is a good one, as the Dolphins have allowed the most passing TDs in the NFL to the wide receiver position, despite already having their bye week and routinely facing teams that are just trying to run out the clock in the second half. The opportunity should be there as well, with TY Hilton set to miss his second-straight game and rookie Parris Campbell out of the mix after breaking his hand last week. Pascal has target counts of six and seven in two games without Hilton in the lineup, which he's converted into nine catches for 148 yards and a TD. We should be able to pencil him in for somewhere around 6-8 targets this week with a chance for more due to Campbell's absence.

Devante Parker - MIA @ IND ($4,800)

I told you WR was thin this week! You know that's the case when we start seriously considering Miami Dolphins, but I'm intrigued by Devante Parker in this spot for a couple of reasons. I like his recent volume - he's been targeted 24 times in Miami's last three games - and the Dolphins breakout receiver Preston Williams will no longer be in the lineup after tearing his ACL last week, which stabilizes that volume. Parker also benefits from having the ruthlessly-aggressive Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, which can lead to mistakes, but also to big plays. Fitz ranks third in the NFL in Average Intended Air Yards and Parker owns a very healthy aDOT of 14.6 yards. The matchup against the Colts isn't great, but also isn't terrifying, as Indy is allowing an opposing WR catch rate of just over 71%.

 

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 10 Picks

Austin Hooper - ATL @ NO ($5,500)

After loving the 'buy low' spot that Zach Ertz had last week, I was a little disappointed when I looked at the TE spot for this slate. There are definitely some intriguing 'pay down' options (one of which we'll get to next) at the position, but there isn't a lot to love in the mid-to-high price range this week. Atlanta's Austin Hooper has been a consistent performer this year (and has already made a couple of appearances in this article this season), but draws a really tough road matchup against the Saints this week. This New Orleans defense is no joke and not one we want to go out of our way to target, but Hooper presents us with a solid price/talent/usage combination that might just trump the difficult matchup. The Falcons tight end is having a breakout year and should get Matt Ryan back this week. Hooper has been targeted 62 times this season and is near the top of the tight end position with an average of 9.5 yards per target. The Falcons are the most pass-happy offense in the NFL and head to New Orleans as big road underdogs, which should force them to remain aggressive throughout the air for much of the day.

Mike Gesicki - MIA @ IND ($3,100)

We've been on pretty strong run in this article with dirt-cheap tight ends, so I'm gonna take a shot on Miami's Mike Gesicki at just $3.1k this week. Gesicki is the second Dolphin to be highlighted in 'Break The Slate' this week - which I realize is kinda sick - and like every piece on this offense, he definitely carries risks, but I'm willing to take them on at this price tag. The Penn State product is an athletic freak, but has failed to get going in the NFL to this point. However, we are starting to see glimpses of his potential and Gesicki posted his best game of the season last week by snagging six of six targets for 95 yards. He's a tight end in name only and is running pass routes at a 95.4% clip. Three of his 21 receptions this year have gone for 20-plus yards and he has big-play potential with a fearless Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. In addition to the sneaky upside, Gesicki also possesses a surprisingly-decent floor

 

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 10 Picks

Baltimore Ravens Defense - BAL @ CIN ($4,000)

After a few bumps in the road, this Ravens defense appears to be finding its footing. The Baltimore D/ST has tallied DK scores of 13 and 18 in its two most recent outings and gets a dream matchup against Cincy this week. The Ravens are famously aggressive and blitz-happy, which should spell trouble for a Bengals offensive line that is atrocious and will be tasked with protecting rookie QB Ryan Finley, who will be making the first start of his career. I look for the Bengals pass protection to break down early and often, which could lead to some great play-making opportunities for this Ravens defensive unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense - LAR @ PIT ($2,600)

Over the past couple of years, we've become accustomed to avoiding the LA Rams like the plague with D/ST units, and while the Rams are still a very good offense, they haven't had that same well-oiled-machine-that's-unstoppable feel this year. Rams QB Jared Goff has been inconsistent and has tossed seven picks to go with six fumbles behind an o-line that is performing nowhere near the caliber of last season's unit. Pittsburgh is seemingly improving every week on the defensive side of the ball and trail just the New England Patriots with 22 takeaways this season. The Steelers are fifth in the NFL with 28 sacks and get a home matchup against a Rams team that must travel across the country. If you plan on rostering Christian McCaffrey this week, you'll probably need to save salary at the D/ST position and Pittsburgh is a value play with upside, despite the less-than-ideal matchup.

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