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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/8/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Kyle Stowers, George Springer, Nick Kurtz, Sean Murphy, and Alec Burleson.
We have a full slate of games for Tuesday's MLB action. We have some warm temperatures on the East Coast again, which will provide us with some opportunities to go home run hunting. Outside of Sutter Health Park and Great American Ball Park, there are no extreme hitting spots on today's slate, so most of our bets are solely based on the matchup, just the way I like it.
I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than five home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, July 8, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/8/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, July 8:
- Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
- George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
- Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
- Nick Kurtz, Athletics
- Sean Murphy, Atlanta Braves
Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DK)
Our journey tonight starts at Great American Ball Park with a matchup between Nick Martinez and the Miami Marlins. It will be in the mid-80s at first pitch with a slight wind blowing out to left center field, making this a slight bump to bats, especially in this park.
The Marlins are red-hot against right-handed pitching, and Martinez will have his hands full. Martinez has allowed a 4.40 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 1.25 HR/9, 43.8% FB, and a 29.2% hard-hit rate this season. He has allowed a 2.30 HR/9 over his last 30 days, which is a trend I will buy into.
Martinez has allowed 15 home runs this season. Eight of these have come against right-handed bats, and the other seven against lefties. Although righties have hit him for a bit more power, lefties are still hitting .228 AVG, .185 ISO, and a .413 SLG.
⭐️ Star power Stowers ⭐️
KYLE IS ATLANTA BOUND 🧳 pic.twitter.com/fNFMeyo9KQ
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) July 6, 2025
Stowers leads the Marlins with an absurd 16 home runs this season against right-handed pitching. The next closest is Agustin Ramirez, with 10, who is a great home run bet in his own right. Stowers is slashing .270/.345/.545 with a .890 OPS against the split in 2025. Look for Stowers to get us on the board early on Tuesday night.
George Springer OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FD)
The Toronto Blue Jays will square off against the Chicago White Sox for their second game of the series tonight. Aaron Civale will get the rock for the White Sox and have the challenging task of facing this red-hot Blue Jays lineup.
Civale this season has a 5.38 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, 1.67 HR/9, 50.4% FB, and a 37.0% hard-hit rate. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.60 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, 1.00 HR/9, 50.0% FB, and a 32.1% hard-hit rate. I usually want to attack Civale with left-handed bats, but this season, his splits have been neutral.
In 2025, Civale has allowed eight home runs, four to each side of the plate. Righties have a .284 AVG, .190 ISO, and a .474 SLG, while lefties have a .257 AVG, .243 ISO, and a .500 SLG. Addison Barger and Springer both look great in this spot, but ultimately, I am hanging my hat on Springer.
Springer has been electric in 2025. He is slashing .300/.386/.533 with a .919 OPS against right-handed pitching. He has hit 11 home runs against the split this season, which leads the Blue Jays. I am all in on Springer tonight.
Alec Burleson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DK)
Burleson is always one of my favorite players to click on, and it's no different in 2025. He will square off against Jake Irvin in his home park at Busch Stadium. It will be in the mid-80s at first pitch with no wind, creating neutral hitting conditions.
The main target here is Irvin, who has struggled with the long ball in 2025. Irvin this season has a 4.62 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9, 31.2% FB, and a 35.1% hard-hit rate. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.37 xFIP, 1.84 WHIP, 3.48 HR/9, 42.4% FB, and a 54.5% hard-hit rate. The hard-hit numbers are some of the worst I have seen this season.
Irvin has allowed 20 home runs in 2025. 11 of those have come against lefties, and nine have come against righties. Lefties have a .252 AVG, .222 ISO, and a .474 SLG. I don't mind targeting righties in this spot, but the best power bat in this lineup hits from the left side.
Alec Burleson makes it a 4-run 5th inning for the @Cardinals! pic.twitter.com/PGpcECJIMr
— MLB (@MLB) June 24, 2025
Burleson has been on a tear this year. He is slashing .308/.352/.495 with a .847 OPS against right-handed pitching. He leads the Cardinals with nine home runs against the split. Nolan Gorman is my next best option here, and I am considering adding him to my card. However, for now, I will roll with Burleson to go deep tonight.
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Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+270 DK)
Our last two home run bets will be in the same game at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. It will be in the low-to-mid 80s at first pitch with a 10+ mph wind blowing out to dead center field. Didier Fuentes will be toeing the rubber against Jeffrey Springs.
Fuentes has struggled early on for the Braves despite his impressive numbers in the minor leagues this season. Fuentes has a 4.88 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, 2.25 HR/9, 41.9% FB, and a 32.6% hard-hit rate this season. Fuentes has thrown 12 innings this season and has allowed three home runs. He has allowed two of those to lefties along with a .360 AVG, .320 ISO, and a .680 SLG.
I don't mind the side of the plate here, but the best bat in this lineup has been Nick Kurtz. He has 12 home runs in 140 AB this season against right-handed pitchers. Kurtz is slashing .264/.344/.579 this season against the split. This comes with a .922 OPS. He has one fewer home run than Brent Rooker and two fewer home runs than Tyler Soderstrom against right-handed pitching, with 100 fewer at-bats.
Nick Kurtz: .926 OPS, 7 HR, 17 RBI
Jacob Misiorowski: 16 IP, 19 K, 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIPYour AL and NL Rookies of the Month for June! pic.twitter.com/E0SjAMvCDM
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2025
I love this spot for the rookie to leave the yard.
Sean Murphy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DK)
As I mentioned earlier, we will continue with the same approach here and target Springs with the Atlanta Braves in an elite home run park. Instead of picking one of the big boppers in Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, or Marcell Ozuna, we are going to get a little different with one of my favorite lefty mashers behind the plate by clicking Sean Murphy.
Murphy leads the Braves with five home runs against left-handed pitching in 2025. He is slashing .179/.303/.482 with a .795 OPS. This is the true definition of home run hunting, as Murphy will either leave the yard or strike out in this matchup.
Springs has struggled this season, pitching to a 4.72 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 1.48 HR/9, 47.1% FB, and a 31.2% hard-hit rate. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.47 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 2.61 HR/9, 51.9% FB, and a 32.3% hard-hit rate.
He has allowed a ton of power to right-handed hitters in 2025. He has given up 14 of his 16 home runs this season to righties and has allowed a .218 AVG, .197 ISO, and a .415 SLG against the split. Any one of these righties can hit a dinger tonight, but my best bet is Murphy.
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