MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/19/2025)

July 19, 2025

Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/19/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Salvador Perez, Jackson Holliday, Mike Trout, and Kody Clemens.

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! It's great to have baseball back after the All-Star break earlier this week, and on Saturday, most of the action is under the lights as baseball gets back in the swing of a busy summer. With the trade deadline and playoff race just around the corner, it's great to have baseball back in the spotlight, so the summer can now continue! It shapes up to be a great night of action, and features some great matchups to dive into in search of some great home run props.

While we don't have Sutter Health Park in action this week, George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa and Coors Field in Denver are both on the board, and we have some great homer-friendly weather and matchups to consider as we sort through the options. Most teams went with a solid, established starter in their first game back after the break, but Saturday's action has a wide variety of starting pitchers, some of which have been strong performers while others have been very hittable, making them smash spots for home run props.

Below, you can check out four of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, July 19, 2025. Odds for each prop are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is extremely volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props and round robins, but stacking them up creates the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player in this post goes yard.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/19/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, July 19:

• Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
• Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
• Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles
• Kody Clemens, Minnesota Twins

Salvador Perez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Marlins walked off winners in the first game of this series against the Royals on a Kyle Stowers blast, but for this matchup, I'm looking in the other lineup and like the matchup for Salvador Perez, who I identified as one of "my guys" for the second half of the season. The Royals veteran catcher went 2-for-3 with a double and a walk on Friday before leaving with a pinch hitter, and he's quickly putting his slow start to the season in the rearview mirror.

Perez has hit 13 homers on the season, which is below his normal career level, but does put him on pace for another 20+ home run season. He has at least 20 dingers in seven straight seasons (not counting the COVID-abbreviated season), and he picked up that pace with four homers in his last seven games before the break. He had a 55.0% hard-hit rate in those contests, a 25% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of 94.8 miles per hour. Most of those homers were no-doubters, including this blast that capped off a two-homer game against the Pirates:

Salvador Perez has hit 870 feet worth of home runs tonight 😱

His second of the night gives the @Royals the late lead! pic.twitter.com/oPXXviPcse

— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2025

On Saturday night, Perez has a good matchup against another vet in Cal Quantrill. Perez is 4-for-14 with a home run against Quantrill in their past meetings. Quantrill is 3-8 on the season with a 5.62 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 42.8% hard-hit rate against him. Opponents also have a 10.9% barrel rate and 12 homers against him, including nine by right-handed hitters like Perez. Righties are hitting .371 with a .451 wOBA against him on the season.

Mike Trout OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Another proven veteran bat that is in a good spot to smash this Saturday is Mike Trout, who leads the Angels against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Citizens Bank Park is mostly a neutral home run venue, according to its park factor, but Trout will get a juicy matchup against Taijuan Walker as the Halos look to get a second straight win to start the ceremonial second half of the season.

Trout had two hits and a double in their win on Friday and is 14-for-49 (.285) in his 14 games in July. Seven of those 14 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs to bring his total for the season to 17 long balls. His most recent home run came on the Saturday before the break against the Diamondbacks.

Mike Trout since IL return (May 30):
.279/.425/.478 (149 wRC+)
Highest walk rate in AL (19.5%)

He's walked 34 times, his most in a 40-game season span since 2019 (won 3rd MVP). pic.twitter.com/scGab8oIn1

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) July 13, 2025

Trout is continually connected to the Phillies in trade speculation since he is from nearby Millville, New Jersey. He has only played six games in Citizens Bank Park in his career, going 4-for-25 and not yet getting one out.

Saturday's matchup is a great chance for him to change that since he'll be facing Walker, who has struggled for the Phillies this season. The 32-year-0ld has been in and out of the rotation a few times, giving up a total of seven homers in 58 1/3 innings with a 3.55 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Six of his seven home runs allowed have been at Citizens Bank Park, and righties like Trout have hit four of those home runs.

Trout has a great history in this specific matchup, going 11-for-19 (.579) with three home runs against Walker in their past meetings. I'm not usually one who follows a ton of BvP stats, but I do look at them when the sample size is large enough to matter or strong numbers like these back up a play I was already considering.

With Trout getting a rare chance to play close to home and facing a pitcher he has mashed in the past, I think he has a good chance to go yard on Saturday night, and I'll play him even though his odds are a little shorter than the home run props I usually tout in this post.

Jackson Holliday OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 DraftKings Sportsbook)

George M. Steinbrenner Field is one of two minor league parks being used by Major League Baseball for regular-season games this year. Sutter Health Park and Steinbrenner Field have both been great environments for home run props this season, and on Saturday night, Jackson Holliday and the Orioles will look to even their series against their AL East rival after losing 11-1 on Friday night.

Holliday went 0-for-4 in Friday's loss but will look to bounce back against Zack Littell, who leads the majors this season in home runs allowed.

In his last 19 games, Holliday has four home runs and a hard-hit rate of 43% and seven barrels. He had at least one batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 95 miles per hour in 17 of those 19 games and has continued to hit in the leadoff spot for Baltimore. During that span, he's hitting .244 with a .315 wOBA, and he continues to settle in and deliver on his top-prospect pedigree.

I want to bring to light the fact that Jackson Holliday is putting together a solid year! He’s on pace for:

.260 / 21 HR / 68 RBI / 17 SB
24.6 K% and 5.5 BB%
2 fWAR

He’s still just 21 years old!!
pic.twitter.com/SWrAM1ggjX

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) July 7, 2025

Littell has allowed 11 of his 24 home runs this season to left-handed hitters like Holliday, who have a .320 wOBA against him. Littell's 3.56 ERA is actually pretty solid, but he has struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. His 4.96 FIP and 4.19 SIERA indicate he has been very fortunate not to give up more runs, and he has an 11.6% barrel rate against him this season, giving him a 4.61 xERA.

While the Orioles haven't lived up to their expectations this season, Holliday's development has been one of the few bright spots, and he's in a good spot to keep it rolling against the homer-prone Littell on Saturday.

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Kody Clemens OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let's finish our home run props for this Saturday with a stop at the homer haven of Coors Field, where the Rockies and Twins continue their series to start the second half. The Twins have gotten nice power production from Kody Clemens since acquiring him from the Phillies, and the lefty should be back in the lineup against righty Antonio Senzatela after getting Friday off against lefty Kyle Freeland.

Clemens has been very productive on his side of the platoon in the infield, hitting .265 with a .430 wOBA over his last 12 games. He has smashed five homers in that short timeframe as well with 12 RBI, a 54.5% hard-hit rate, and an 18.2% barrel rate. He launched his latest long ball on the Saturday before the break when he helped power the Twins past the Pirates.

This bat flip from Kody Clemens 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/ZTZwjkI66g

— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2025

Clemens is still enough off the radar that his odds aren't too short at Coors Field even against Senzatela, who has allowed 16 homers in his 19 games this season and has a 6.60 ERA. Lefties have hit .370 against the veteran righty and have a .417 wOBA against him. Senzatela has dropped three straight starts, going 0-3 with 12 runs allowed in 15 innings while giving up four home runs, two of which have been hit by lefties.

Senzatela's struggles make the Twins great options at Coors Field, and Clemens feels like a good balance of risk and reward at these odds. While he may never be a consistent producer of batting average, he has enough raw power to sneak into my home run props in favorable matchups like this one.

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