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Thunder Dan Palyo's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/3/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Just a few days ago, I had my most successful run as a home run prognosticator, correctly predicting three long balls on Sunday while giving out seven recommendations. If you had bet on Mike Tauchman, Francisco Lindor, and Elly De La Cruz each to hit a home run on Sunday, you would have taken home 12 units, and even if you had lost a unit on every missed call, you would still have been up 8+ units overall!
Today we have another huge MLB slate with 15 games going off tonight, and I am going to keep with my latest strategy of "more is more" and give you six of my favorite home run spots.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/3/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Tuesday, June 3:
- Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
- Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
- Ryan O'Hearn, Baltimore Orioles
- Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rockies' rookie Chase Dollander returns to the mound for the Rockies tonight, which is great for Colorado, as he's been easily their best pitcher this season. However, he has had his issues with home runs this season, allowing 10 bombs to opposing hitters in just 39 innings of work.
Stowers has shown excellent power against righties this season with a .247 ISO and .500 SLG. It's been a few weeks since Stowers left the yard, but this is the perfect spot to get one as Dollander throws a ton of fastballs and is willing to challenge hitters with it.
I was considering his teammate, Jesus Sanchez, who has been hot lately for slightly better odds, but I like how Stowers matches up here as he mashes four-seamers. It will be strength on strength in this matchup, but we need one fastball barrelled up to clear the fences to cash this bet at some solid odds.
Kyle Schwarber OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+255 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I usually never chase some of the lowest odds on the board on any given day, but I am not sure there has been a better matchup this season for a prolific home run hitter. Kyle Schwarber has been slugging homers all season and has elite power against RHP with a .280 ISO.
Kyle Schwarber has hit 19 HRs BEFORE his favorite month of June.
June starts tomorrow. Buckle up. pic.twitter.com/xnjw4VBHHe
— Phillies Central (@philscentral_) May 31, 2025
Today, Schwarber matches up against the worst home run pitcher against LHH in the league - Bowden Francis. He's allowed an incredible 12 home runs to lefties already this season and has some crazy splits with a .405 wOBA and .617 SLG allowed. These aren't small sample sizes anymore. We are 11 starts into the season, and it's very clear that he has a major HR issue. I'll break my rule of writing up a guy at low odds for Schwarber today, I think he has a great shot of taking Francis deep.
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
You are missing out if you haven't been watching James Wood lately. We are watching a big-time talent break out before our eyes as the big lefty is crushing the ball with regularity and sending it over the fence in every different direction. He has three home runs in his last six games and is up to 16 on the season. He should flirt with 40+ this season at this pace, and I like his matchup today against rookie righty Cade Horton.
James Wood is one of the most talented players we have seen at 22 years old!
106.8 MPH
26 Degree LA
401 FT
77.6 MPH Bat Speed
.970 xBA
HR in 28/30 Ballparkspic.twitter.com/R9t1XJQ07P— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) May 31, 2025
Like a lot of young hitters, Wood crushes fastballs. But he has also succeeded against breaking balls and has shown power to all fields. I think Horton is going to struggle today against this tough Washington lineup. He's been getting away with a 95 mph fastball that lacks movement and has allowed three home runs on his main secondary pitch - his slider. If Horton will be throwing heavy fastball-slider today to this lineup, I love Wood's chances of smacking one of those offerings over the outfield fence.
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Byron Buxton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 FanDuel Sportsbook)
When Buxton is healthy, he's been very productive this season. His splits against lefties are impressive, with an ISO over .400 and two home runs in just 26 at-bats. He's hitting .346 against LHP this season and is on the right side of his career splits as he's been a 114 wRC+ hitter against LHP over 10 seasons.
Byron Buxton has 7 hits, 8 RBI, 5 runs scored, and a home run all in his last 4 games!
He has looked great this year. pic.twitter.com/40kb15SSCo
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) June 3, 2025
He's red-hot right now, too, which is always a plus. Buxton is set to face Athletics lefty Jacob Lopez, who has allowed three home runs to righties in just 15+ innings of work this season.
We always love targeting hitters in the hitter-friendly Athletics ballpark, and the Twins put up ten runs last night in this hitting environment. I expect Minnesota to have its way with Lopez and get into that A's bullpen pretty early tonight, too.
Ryan O'Hearn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 Fanduel Sportsbook)
I am not sure what's up with George Kirby, but since returning to the Seattle rotation, he's been a mess, allowing a slate-high 3.12 HR/9. It's only been two starts, but his fastball has been getting crushed, and so has his slider.
The good news for him is that the Orioles have been a shell of their former selves this season at the plate. However, Kirby will still have to navigate some dangerous lefties in this lineup with both Gunnar Henderson and O'Hearn posting solid power numbers against righties this season and Jackson Holliday heating up in May.
O'Hearn has the best splits of the bunch and has been consistently hitting righties all season. He has nine home runs on the season and is making better contact than in any other season of his career.
Usually, the home ballpark in Seattle favors pitchers, but if Kirby continues to groove fastballs and struggles with his location as he has, then Baltimore hitters will make him pay. These odds are fantastic for a guy with power like O'Hearn.
Austin Riley OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The last pitcher I want to target tonight is Zac Gallen. Usually, we would avoid the veteran righty as he's been one of the more effective pitchers in the big leagues for the last three to four years. However, something is up with Gallen lately, and he's been pretty awful. Across his last four starts, he's allowed 19 earned runs and four home runs. Either he's injured or just totally lost confidence in his stuff. He usually has impeccable control and a varied pitch mix that keeps hitters off balance, but his fastball is getting hit hard, and even his trademark knuckle-curve has been less effective than usual.
Of the 10 home runs Gallen has allowed this season, six have been to righties. He has shown some slight reverse splits during his career, which matches up well with Austin Riley of Atlanta, who has also hit RHP better than lefties during his career.
Riley has hit .375 with a home run across 16 at-bats against Gallen in his career. I'm going to take a shot on him here, making Gallen pay for any fastballs or breaking pitches he leaves out over the plate. Riley has two home runs in his last four games, too, which never hurts.
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