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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/7/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and more.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, including several day games, but we'll be sticking to the night games to find value in today's home run prop picks. Today's hitters include Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Adolis Garcia, and Bobby Witt Jr. Each player has elite power or a favorable matchup.
The strategy behind uncovering home run props features a few important factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure that we're getting a nice price in terms of betting odds, but sometimes we're willing to make exceptions -- like with Judge, who looks like Barry Bonds this season.
On this page, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, May 7, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best odds, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to only risk a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since they're tough to win.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/7/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, May 7:
- Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
- Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
- Anthony Santander, Toronto Blue Jays
- Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
- Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+190 DraftKings)
Aaron Judge hammers his 12th homer of the year 👨⚖️ pic.twitter.com/cwmSre2lta
— MLB (@MLB) May 7, 2025
Judge is having a phenomenal season, slashing .412/.503/.772 with 12 home runs in 161 plate appearances. This includes a 23.5% barrel rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
The Yankees' slugger has five homers in his last nine games, including one yesterday against the Padres. We've seen Judge be even more dominant at the plate at home, where he has a .904 slugging percentage, compared to .619 on the road.
Up next is a matchup against Dylan Cease, who has struggled vs. Judge in his career, allowing one homer and a .470 xwOBA in 14 plate appearances. The Padres' righty has had a tough time vs. right-handed hitters so far, giving up a .361 wOBA (.338 vs lefties).
It's also worth noting that Cease has failed to pitch more than five innings in four of his last five starts, so it's unlikely that he'll go deep into this game, allowing Judge the opportunity to get to a Padres' bullpen that is a bit taxed after yesterday's blowout loss.
Even with this expensive price at (+190) odds, I'm willing to ride with Judge because of how dominant he's looked at the plate this season, especially at home. It also helps that Cease is struggling overall and has had challenges with Judge in the past.
Gunnar Henderson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)
Henderson is off to a poor start this year, slashing .252/.298/.421 with three homers in 114 plate appearances. But this is a hitter who slugged 37 home runs last year, so there's enough of a track record to trust that he'll get back on track sooner rather than later.
We're also starting to see Henderson get going at the plate lately, as he's hit safely in nine of his last 10 games, including one home run during that stretch. While the barrel rate isn't great yet at 8.0%, Henderson has a 95.4 MPH average exit velocity, which ranks in the 99th percentile.
The Orioles' star has performed much better vs righties throughout his career, registering a 153 wRC+ against them, compared to 96 wRC+ vs. lefties. That's good news because Henderson will get one tonight in an exploitable matchup vs. Simeon Woods Richardson.
The Twins' righty has had a tough time against left-handers this season, allowing a .404 wOBA against them (.317 vs righties). This includes a 1.5 HR/9, so it's clear Woods Richardson has had issues with the long ball. There's a reasonable chance we'll see Henderson put one in the seats vs. Woods Richardson tonight.
We're getting a reasonable price on an elite hitter at (+370) in this matchup, so let's ride with Henderson to hit his fourth home run of the season.
Anthony Santander OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)
ANTHONY SANTANDER GOES YARD TO GIVE THE BLUE JAYS THE LEAD! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/Rnm0WE6Z7n
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 7, 2025
Santander has been a disappointment in his first year with the Blue Jays so far, slashing .180/.267/.331 with five home runs in 150 plate appearances. But you must trust in the track record here, as this is a veteran coming off a 44-homer season.
The batted ball metrics have been poor for Santander, as highlighted by a 5.2% barrel rate, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. However, if we look at his Baseball Savant player page, we see that his xwOBA is slowly creeping slightly above league average in his last 100 plate appearances, which means he's starting to hit the ball harder.
I'll also note that Santander has homered three times in his last eight games, including one last night against the Angels.
The former Oriole gets a lefty tonight in Yusei Kikuchi, whom he's had success against in the past, including one home run and a .368 xwOBA in 24 plate appearances. Santander has done well vs. lefties overall, putting up a .263 ISO against them last season.
It's only a matter of time before this proven power hitter goes on a hot streak, so let's try to time that by targeting him to hit his sixth home run of the season at (+370) odds.
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Garcia is currently slashing .236/.289/.390 with four home runs in 135 plate appearances, so it hasn't exactly been a good start for the Rangers' veteran. This is a hitter who hasn't homered since April 19.
However, I'm willing to take a shot here because not only is he in a favorable hitting environment at Fenway Park, but this is a great matchup against a pitcher whom he's crushed in the past.
The Red Sox send out righty Tanner Houck tonight. In 12 career plate appearances vs. Houck, Garcia has two home runs with a .569 xwOBA. It also helps that Houck has struggled this season, putting up a 1.72 HR/9 in 36.2 innings.
Despite Garcia's struggles this year, we must remember that this player is one year removed from a 39-homer season, so there's enough of a track record here.
At (+400) odds, we're getting a reasonable price when you consider Garcia's success against Houck throughout his career. Let's ride with the Rangers' veteran to go yard for the fifth time this season.
Bobby Witt Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings)
The last home run prop on this page includes the Royals' superstar. Witt Jr. is slashing .310/.383/.493 with four home runs in 162 plate appearances. The power hasn't been there yet, but this is a player with 30+ homers in each of the last two seasons, so it's only a matter of time.
Witt Jr. is riding high coming into this game, homering twice in his last six matchups.
This is a good spot vs. White Sox righty Jonathan Cannon, who has a 4.57 SIERA on the season. Cannon has been worse vs. righties (.349 wOBA) than lefties (.318 wOBA), which also bodes well for Witt Jr.
You have to like getting a (+450) price on one of the best hitters in baseball, so let's take a shot on Witt to hit his fifth homer of the year in this spot.
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