MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/2/2025)

May 2, 2025

Kipp Heisterman's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/2/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Get our home run prop picks today!

We've got a full 15-game slate in action on Friday, giving us plenty of opportunities to find some bats to go yard. We don't have many high wind spots like we have had the last two days, but there are still opportunities with some decent weather spots, and the weather heating up, to target the long ball in some good hitting spots.

I will provide my six favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need three of our six hitters to go deep.

Keep reading to find out my favorite home run props from MLB games on Friday, May 2, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.

MLB Prop Bets - Home Run Prop Picks Today

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Friday, May 2:

• Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
• Brooks Lee, Minnesota Twins
• Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins
• Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Heliot Ramos, San Francisco Giants

Eugenio Suarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We will start with what might be a pretty obvious play, given that Suarez hit four home runs in a single game last Saturday. He has been raking this season and now has 10 home runs on the season.

4 HR in one game, a Major League record!

Eugenio Suárez is the 19th player in history to do it 💪

(MLB x @BudweiserUSA) pic.twitter.com/m6yGNlVVNN

— MLB (@MLB) April 27, 2025

These home runs are not an outlier, either. He is currently posting an average exit velocity of 94.1 mph, which ranks him in the 98th percentile of the league. He also ranks better than the 95th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

He will be facing left-hander Jesus Luzardo in the band box that is Citizens' Bank Ballpark. Luzardo has been known to give up some dingers, especially to right-handed hitters. Since 2023, Luzardo has allowed 27 home runs to right-handed hitters. While Luzardo has been solid thus far in 2025, allowing just one home run, it is only a matter of time before the long balls start coming.

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This play is simply about going after Dean Kremer of the Baltimore Orioles. I looked at as many Royals as I could, and Pasquantino was about as good of an option as I could find in their current lineup, given the metrics.

Kremer has seen most of his struggles against left-handed hitters in the past and present. In 2025, Kremer has allowed seven total home runs, five of which have come against left-handed batters. Overall, Kremer allows an average exit velocity north of 82 mph, which ranks in the 20th percentile. He has also allowed an exit velocity of 95 plus to 22% of balls hit.

Enter Pasquantino, who has raked a bit against right-handed pitching as noted by his 26 home runs since 2023. Vinnie is also getting the ball up, as noted by his 57% fly ball rate. He has already hit three home runs off of right-handers in 2025 and could be looking for number four tonight.

Brooks Lee OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+750 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We are digging deep with this play, which is alright given that Lee's odds are at +750 on DraftKings. Lee has smacked two home runs this season in just 56 plate appearances. He has hit both of his home runs off of right-handed pitchers while also posting a solid .853 OPS.

Lee has also posted an average exit velocity north of 90 mph, ranking him in the 71st percentile of hitters league-wide. Add in a barrel rate of 8.9% that ranks him in the 91st percentile, and you have a nice profile to go deep here.

He will be facing right-hander Brayan Bello, who has allowed two home runs to left-handers in limited action this season and has also allowed 28 bombs to lefties since 2023. Playing at Fenway should also help Lee here as winds will be blowing out around 10 mph, so a nice weather bump.

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Trevor Larnach OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings)

I wanted to get another left-handed Twins' bat in this article, and think Larnach might be the guy. He has shorter odds to go deep, which is likely because there is more power in his bat than Lee's, which is noted by his four home runs thus far in 2025. All four of these bombs have come against right-handed pitching.

This should be no surprise, as Larnach has posted 26 dingers against right-handed pitching since 2023. I am not going to lie, the power metrics do not jump off the page for Larnach, which is why this is more of a feel tonight. I like that the winds are blowing out, and Bello has been known to give up some long balls to left-handed hitters.

Larnach is also starting to heat up. He has hit three home runs since April 22, and all four of his home runs have come in the previous 14 days.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Other than Suarez, Hernandez might be the most obvious selection in this article, and his +390 odds note this. Hernandez has started the season on fire and now has nine home runs this season. Four of these home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.

Hernandez is also posting an 8.3% barrel rate, which ranks him in the 87th percentile of the league. He will be up against Braves right-hander Grant Holmes, who has allowed five home runs to right-handed hitters in 2025, facing just 58 batters. This is quite substantial and is not all that surprising given the fact that he has allowed an average exit velocity of 83 mph, ranking him in the 18th percentile. He has also allowed 23.9% of balls to be hit 95-plus mph, ranking him in the 44th percentile.

Winds at Truist Park will also be blowing out modestly at seven mph, so we get a small weather bump here if nothing else.

Heliot Ramos OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+700 DraftKings Sportsbook)

This one was going to be my favorite play of the slate, however, the fact that Ramos went deep last night (and the night before) makes me think he got his bombs out of the way already, but we can still look at him in this matchup against Antonio Senzatela and this horrid Rockies' bullpen.

Ramos has now hit five home runs on the season, four of which have come against right-handed pitchers. He has also hit 16 home runs against right-handers over the previous two seasons. Thus far in 2025, Ramos has posted a 7,5% barrel rate, which is very respectable and good enough to rank him in the 75th percentile. While his hard hit rate is only sitting at 33% in 2025, this is still not low enough to take me off him in this spot against Senzatela.

Heliot Ramos starts things off for the @SFGiants with his first career leadoff homer! pic.twitter.com/17AhpM2Ti9

— MLB (@MLB) May 2, 2025

Senzatela has been an absolute gas can, as noted by his 85.2 mph average exit velocity allowed. He has also given up a whopping six dingers to right-handed hitters in 2025. When he is done getting torched, he will make way for the abysmal Colorado Rockies' bullpen, which has allowed 12 home runs thus far in 2025. Ramos should be in a good spot to do some damage for a third consecutive evening as he has now homered in back-to-back games.

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