MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (5/1/2025)

May 1, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/1/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.

We've got an 11-game slate on Thursday, giving us opportunities to find some bats to go yard. We don't have many high wind spots like we have had the last two days, but there are still opportunities to target the long ball in some good hitting spots with the weather heating up.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need two of our five hitters to go deep.

Keep reading to find out my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, May 1, 2025. The odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Don't forget to shop around at other sportsbooks to find the best value on your wagers.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks

Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, May 1:

• Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals
• Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
• Kyle Higashioka, Texas Rangers
• James Wood, Washington Nationals
• Spencer Torkelson, Los Angeles Angels

Masyn Winn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

When a man is hot, a man is hot. If you missed it in yesterday’s doubleheader with the Reds, Winn went 4-for-8 with two home runs and 11 total bases. We will ride a hot hand who crushes left-handed pitching over his career, facing a fly-ball southpaw at Great American Ball Park. Since 2023, the Reds' home park has allowed 121 home runs to right-handed hitters, third in MLB.

Masyn Winn in today’s doubleheader:

4-for-8
2 HR
4 runs scored
2 RBI
11 total bases
pic.twitter.com/YXTBfgNPjZ

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 1, 2025

Andrew Abbott is a good pitcher, but is also prone to the home run and has a massive fly-ball rate. In 2025, Abbott has a 4.00 xFIP, 32.8% K%, and an 11.2% SwStr%. He has a 1.80 HR/9 and a 63.6% FB% in 2025. Right-handed hitters have a 4.11 xFIP, 1.6 HR/9, 66.7% FB%, and a 33.3% hard-hit percentage. One or more right-handed batters are going yard for the Redbirds today.

My favorite candidate is Winn, who is red hot, as mentioned above. Since 2024, Winn has a .337 wOBA, .228 ISO, and nine home runs against the split. Abbott is most susceptible to home runs off his four-seamer. In 2024, he had a .463 xSLG and 14 HRs; in 2025, he had a .342 xSLG and two HRs.

• Arm Angle: 45 Pitches, .415 wOBA, .333 ISO, 0 HR
• Four-Seamer:97 Pitches, .470 wOBA, .500 ISO, 1 HR

Winn is red hot and in a great hitting ballpark that catches his eye. He profiles well against Abbott's mix and arm angle, which makes him susceptible to giving up a ton of power and fly balls to right-handed hitters. What could go wrong?

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)

I am returning to the well with Jose Ramirez after he let us down on Tuesday. He will get a matchup against Simeon Woods Richardson in Cleveland, with the wind blowing out to dead center at 10 mph.

Woods Richardson has a 4.26 xFIP, 1.48 HR/9, and a 55.6% FB% in 2025. He has a 1.86 HR/9 and a 51.7% FB% over his last two appearances. Lefties have destroyed Woods Richardson this season. He has a 5.36 xFIP, 2.0 HR/9, 52.9% FB%, and a 34.3% hard-hit percentage. He has a 54.3% pull rate, which is a massive benefit to the lefties in this park.

The top bat for the Guardians in this matchup is Ramirez. Since 2024, he has had a .335 wOBA and a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has hit four of his five home runs against right-handed pitching this season, and he has pulled all of them.

Ramirez profiles extremely well against the mix of Woods Richardson. SWR has two specific pitches that have been crushed by LHP over the last two seasons. His four-seamer has a .610 xSLG with two HRs in 2025, and his changeup has a .778 xSLG with one HR. This pitch has a .443 xSLG and eight HRs against it in 2024.

• Arm Angle: 86 Pitches, .602 wOBA, .348 ISO, 2 HRs
• Four-Seamer: 187 Pitches, .533 wOBA, .459 ISO, 5 HRs
• Changeup: 103 Pitches, .285 wOBA, .292 ISO, 2 HRs

Let’s try this again with my hometown Guardians getting me a home run this afternoon.

Kyle Higashioka OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Let’s get weird with Kyle Higashioka against southpaw Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics. Higgy profiles extremely well here, and Springs has been giving up the long ball. This game will be played in a dome at Globe Life Field. Since 2023, it has surrendered 115 home runs to right-handed hitters. That mark is fourth in MLB during that span.

Springs, as mentioned earlier, has struggled with the long ball. In 2025, he has a 4.97 xFIP, 1.59 HR/9, 47.2% FB%, and 30.3% FB%. Over his last two starts, he has a 6.11 xFIP, 2.16 HR/9, 50.0% FB%, and a 40.0% hard-hit percentage. He is trending in the wrong direction and has been crushed by right-handed bats this season. Righties have a 4.65 xFIP, 1.9 HR/9, 44.0% FB%, and a 34.7% hard-hit percentage in 2025.

Higashioka profiles extremely well here and is clicking all the boxes for me. He has a .321 wOBA, .130 ISO, 44.4% FB%, 50.0% pull percentage, and a 28.9% hard-hit percentage against right-handed pitching in 2025. He crushes Springs' pitch mix and arm angle and throws two pitches to left-handed hitters who have given him fits. His four-seamer has a .586 xSLG and three HRs against this season, and his changeup has a .321 xSLG and two HRs against.

• Arm Angle: 24 Pitches, .655 wOBA, .167 ISO, 0 HR
• Four-Seamer: .639 wOBA, .500 ISO, 1 HR
• Changeup: 21 Pitches, .586 wOBA, .857 ISO, 2 HRs

Higgy clicks all the boxes for me and hits the low velocity of Springs better than anyone from the Rangers. I was close to pulling the trigger on the more popular Wyatt Langford, but I am going with my gut, and Higashioka is going yard tonight.

Sports Betting Promo Offers

James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings)

James Wood is an absolute star. His underlying metrics are elite, and he smashes right-handed pitching. He will face Taijuan Walker at Citizens Bank Park. Since 2023, there have been 124 home runs hit by left-handed hitters here. That mark is second in MLB over that span. Wind is blowing out to left field tonight, which benefits Wood because of his opposite-field power.

Walker has some negative regression coming his way. Walker has a 2.78 ERA, but his 3.94 xERA tells a different story. Walker has a 4.40 xFIP, 0.79 HR/9, and a 35.8% FB%. In 2024, Walker was prone to the long ball with a 2.58 HR/9 and a 40.6% FB%.

Wood is by far the best bat in this lineup and profiles extremely well against Walker's arm angle and pitch mix. Wood has a .397 wOBA and a .286 ISO against the split in 2025. He has a .452 wOBA, a .381 ISO, and a 35.7% hard hit percentage over his last 25 plate appearances. Everything lines up for Wood to leave the park tonight.

Spencer Torkelson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)

We end our journey today with Spencer Torkelson and the Detroit Tigers against Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is another good pitcher who profiles pretty well, but the metrics for Torkelson in this ballpark are too hard to pass up. Angel Stadium has allowed 115 home runs to right-handed hitters since 2023.

Torkelson has destroyed left-handed pitching since his call-up. In 2025, he has a .422 wOBA, .400 ISO, 64.0% FB%, and a 52.0% hard-hit percentage over 43 plate appearances. He has a 52.0 percent pull rate, and in this park, it is precisely where right-handed hitters want to leave the yard. Over his last 16 plate appearances, he has a .502 wOBA, .583 ISO, and a 75.0% FB% against the split.

🔥 .286 AVG, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 1.010 OPS 🔥

Let's take a look at the adjustment Spencer Torkelson has made at the plate in 2025!#MLBCentral | @tigers | @markdero7 pic.twitter.com/vIJiGgIZPo

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 18, 2025

Although Kikuchi has been good this season, he still struggles with right-handed hitters. In 2025, he has a 4.85 xFIP, 1.4 HR/9, 38.8% FB%, and a 32.1% hard-hit percentage. He has allowed all four home runs in 2025 against right-handed hitters. I love the chances of a late-night bomb from Tork to bring us home.

Today’s MLB slate offers excellent opportunities to cash in on home-run props. Whether you're riding the hot streak of Winn, backing the bounce-back potential of Ramirez, or taking a value swing with Higashioka, these player props are packed with upside.

Don’t overlook Wood's elite metrics or Torkelson’s dominance versus lefties -- both are primed for long balls in hitter-friendly parks. A well-placed round robin on the right sluggers could turn tonight into a profitable one. Let’s go yard!

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