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Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts this Spring.
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues this Spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with a look at some news pertaining to a pair of relievers.
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(Potentially) Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Alex Reyes Signing With The Dodgers
Reyes missed the 2022 season due to shoulder surgery, but if he’s healthy and effective for the Dodgers in 2023, he has the potential to be a relief ace with plenty of fantasy upside in both saves+holds leagues and more standard-scoring leagues. For the most part, Reyes’ advanced numbers during the 2021 campaign were very much in line with what you’d expect of a relief ace.
Looking past his 3.24 ERA and 4.40 FIP, the right-hander finished in the 82nd percentile or better in hard-hit rate, K%, barrel rate, xBA, xSLG, and whiff rate. His xwOBA against finished in the 75th percentile league-wide.
Those metrics were in large part due to Reyes’ excellent pitch arsenal. All three of his non-fastball offerings – a slider, changeup, and curveball – finished with whiff rates of 50% or better with varying usage rates at 28%, 9.0%, and 8.4% respectively.
The only real blemish statistically was a rather high walk rate. Reyes walked 6.47 batters per nine innings and his 16.4% walk rate finished in the first percentile league-wide. Those numbers aren’t… good. They’re not.
If he’s unable to limit the walks again, it could prevent him from working as a high-leverage option in the Dodgers bullpen. However, if Reyes can limit the walks while still missing bats at an elite rate, there could be plenty of late-game opportunities for a Los Angeles team that is lacking an obvious closing candidate.
The Dodgers certainly aren't hurting for high-leverage options, with Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson, Brusdar Graterol, and Caleb Ferguson on hand, but there’s no clear-cut ninth-inning option, especially with Blake Treinen recently being placed on the 60-day injured list.
The lack of a closer could create an opportunity for save chances at some point for Reyes, who – it’s worth noting – finished with 29 saves in his final season in St. Louis.
(Potentially) Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Andrew Chafin Signing With The Diamondbacks
Speaking of pitchers who could potentially close games for a National League West team in 2023, we move to Chafin, who is now officially a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Chafin enjoyed a strong season with the Detroit Tigers in 2022, logging a 3.06 FIP, 67 strikeouts and 19 walks in 57.1 innings of work. The veteran left-hander primarily worked as a high-leverage setup option ahead of Gregory Soto in Detroit, finishing with three saves and 19 holds. However, there’s a chance he could step into ninth-inning work in Arizona.
Of course, that’s purely speculative but the opportunity could be there if Joe Mantiply continues to operate in a role similar to the one Chafin occupied in Detroit last season. Just who the closing equivalent to Soto in the Arizona bullpen remains to be seen right now, which could open the door for Chafin to see save chances.
Outside of Mantiply, Arizona’s best relievers last season were Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson. And while both registered FIPs below 3.20, neither topped the 40-inning mark. There’s also veteran Mark Melancon, who initially operated as Arizona’s closer last season.
Melancon paced Arizona with 18 saves in 2022, but of those 18 just five of those came in the season’s second half. Furthermore, the veteran also logged just 13 strikeouts and a 5.03 FIP in 24.1 second-half innings.
If the Diamondbacks' dispersal of saves in the second half of 2022 continues, Melancon might not get the majority of saves again for the National League West club.
Save Totals For Diamondbacks Relivers In The Second Half Of The 2022 Season:
- Ian Kennedy: 6 saves
- Mark Melancon: 5 saves
- Reyes Morontoa: 2 saves
- Kevin Ginkel: 1 save
Chafin has never converted more than six saves in a season. However, that beings said, he has a real chance to top that number if Mantiply continues to work in innings that aren’t the ninth and no other closing options establish themselves.
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