Early-Season Fantasy Outliers to Forget?

October 13, 2021

A lot has changed since Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season, especially in fantasy football. Rishi looks at the biggest outliers from the season opener and identifies major risers and fallers since then.

We are now five weeks into the 2021 NFL campaign. Teams are starting to stand out while others look like they should be jockeying for draft positions--already. The 2021 season has been off to a rousing start and Week 1 feels so far back in the rearview mirror.

Oftentimes, Week 1 is more of an experimental week where teams get a feel for their chemistry and shake off the rust. Therefore, some performances may not be reflective of what’s to come.

That certainly applies to this season where some players’ Week 1 performances now seem like an aberration. Let’s break down some players and headlines that seemingly fooled us into thinking what their fantasy stock was after Week 1.

Mike Evans Lays A Dud, Super Bowl Hangover?

Mike Evans was the odd man out in the shootout with the Cowboys in Week 1. The talented receiver laid a dud right off the bat with only three receptions for 24 yards on six targets while his teammates thrived.

That may have been a “shake off the rust” week as the 28-year-old has been on a tear ever since. He has produced at least 75 yards in the following four games while notching two contests with over 100 yards in that span. Evans is now showcasing why he’s a top receiver in the league once again and is back on pace for another 1,000-yard season. 

Ezekiel Elliott Runs Nowhere and Dak Prescott Keeps on Flinging

Referring to that same game, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for a season-high 58 times and 403 yards while Zeke only rushed for 33 yards. Could that have been a sign that Zeke was on the decline and the Cowboys would have to rely on Dak to throw more after returning from injury?

Well apparently not, as the Cowboys have thankfully become more balanced since Week 1. Elliott has rushed for at least 71 yards in the last four games, while also posting over 100 rushing yards in the last two games.

Meanwhile, Prescott hasn’t thrown the pigskin more than 32 times in a single contest since Week 1 but has still posted respectable numbers. The Cowboys also haven’t lost since Week 1 and will look to continue rolling in a weak division (again).

Eli Mitchell Strikes Gold and Takes the League By Storm

Ah yes, Elijah Mitchell. The most popular fantasy pickup after Week 1. Who knew what would lie ahead for him after that Week 1 flash of talent. It was warranted since Raheem Mostert went down for the season and the rookie posted 19 carries for 104 yards and a score against the Lions. Nevertheless, Mitchell has been a huge fantasy bust since Week 1, as he has played only two games since then in which he posted no more than 43 yards in any contest. While he appears to have regained starter status over Trey Sermon, it’s safe to say the Elijah Mitchell hype train has long disappeared into the distance at this point.

Ty'Son Williams: Leader of the Baltimore Rushing Attack

With the Ravens unluckily hit by the injury bug in terms of their RB room, it seemed undrafted player Ty’Son Williams would be destined for the workhorse back role after a Week 1 in which he had nine rushes for 65 yards and a score. 

Nevertheless, after a Week 2 in which he posted 77 rush yards, Williams has disappeared into oblivion as he managed only 28 yards total after that while also needing to fend off former RB1s Latavius Murray, Le’Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman, all of whom are on the Ravens now. 

Melvin Gordon A Mile Higher Than Javonte Williams

Managers knew rookie Javonte Williams was a threat to veteran Melvin Gordon III in the Broncos backfield heading into 2021. However, it seemed managers could breathe a (brief) sigh of relief after Gordon posted 11 carries for 101 yards and a score in Week 1 while Williams only had 45 rushing yards. 

Afterward, the numbers have been the same for both backs and reflective of a true committee approach. Both backs have received a similar number of carries and posted similar rushing numbers in the last four weeks. While it seemed Gordon may have had the upper hand after Week 1, it seems to be the opposite as both backs are chewing at each other’s fantasy values instead.

Aaron Rodgers Starts off Cold as the Tundra

After all the offseason drama surrounding the Packers, they started off 2021 by getting pummeled by... Jameis Winston and the Saints?! Yes, it holds true as the Saints routed Green Bay 38-3 in which the real question was whether Rodgers’ heart was still in Green Bay and what not.

Well, he did post a terrible 133 yards and two picks in that contest but that has been ancient history ever since because the generational QB has erased any doubts about his talents and commitment to the team by posting at least 245 yards in the following four contests with 10 touchdowns to only one pick. Looks like Green Bay is once again an NFC contender and Rodgers is as sharp as usual. 

Mark Ingram II Gallops His Way to RB1

The Houston Texans were a mess in the backfield (and as a team) heading into 2021, but it seemed veteran Mark Ingram II could be the leading back after a Week 1 performance that saw him get 26 carries for 85 yards and a score while Phillip Lindsay only had eight carries for 25 yards and David Johnson recorded three carries for 10 yards. 

Well, that was a false sense of hope for Ingram because he hasn’t posted more than 16 carries or 41 rushing yards in any contest after. Though he still paces the team in rushing yards, the weekly production has been nowhere near strong enough for fantasy.

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