Deshaun Watson Will Be the Overall QB1 in 2020

Frank Ammirante explains why Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson will finish the 2020 NFL season as the overall QB1 in fantasy football and could be undervalued at his current ADP.

Deshaun Watson has established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. His dual-threat, playmaking ability has translated particularly well in fantasy football. In his three year career, Watson has averaged 24.12 (1st), 20.73 (4th), and 22.13 points per game (2nd), making him one of the most coveted quarterbacks in fantasy drafts. 

But things changed when head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien decided to trade elite wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals. Watson no longer had an alpha WR1 to pepper with targets. This trade made me doubt Watson’s upside - I even tweeted that he was one of my players to avoid. 

I decided to dive deeper into Watson’s outlook. After all, how could I be so skeptical about an elite quarterback entering his age-25 season? What I discovered changed my mind completely. The Houston Texans plan on unleashing Watson this year. Their changes in scheme and depletion on defense have put together a perfect storm. Deshaun Watson will be the overall QB1 in 2020.

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Watson's Wide Receiver Options

Bill O’Brien has decided to relinquish play-calling duties to second-year offensive coordinator Tim Kelly. The Texans appear headed for more of a spread offense in 2020 with Kelly calling the plays.  The team traded for deep-threat Brandin Cooks to go along with Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills, giving them three players with sub-4.4 40 speed, which aligns perfectly with Watson’s skill set.

Watson throws one of the best deep balls in the NFL -- PFF ranked him second in the NFL in downfield passing behind only Russell Wilson last season. The team also signed slot receiver Randall Cobb, who will help in the intermediate passing game due to the room provided from the Texans’ trio of burners. And don’t forget about third-year WR Keke Coutee, who showed potential as a rookie with 28 receptions for 287 yards in only six games. That gives Watson five talented receivers at his disposal.

Hopkins is a fantastic receiver, but he wins as a possession receiver with precise route-running. Watson is at his best with a burner on the perimeter. The true difference-maker in this offense might actually be Will Fuller V. Just take a look at his splits with and without Fuller in the lineup.

It’s clear that Fuller’s downfield ability really opens up this offense and allows Watson to make more big plays. Watson’s yards per attempt (+1.5), passing yards per game (+52), and  touchdown rate (+2.9%) increased significantly with Fuller in the lineup. Without Fuller, Watson became less of a gun-slinger, relying more on his rushing ability. Fuller is in line to become the new WR1 on this team, but the problem is that he’s had trouble staying on the field, playing only 42-of-64 games in his career. 

The Texans recognize that Watson is at his best with a deep-threat on the perimeter, so they made sure to have one available at all times, trading for Stills and Cooks in consecutive offseasons. One of the best downfield passers in the NFL is now surrounded by burners. Watson’s ability to evade pass-rushers and connect downfield in off-script situations is also among the best in the league. This trio of deep threats with a scrambling quarterback who can escape the blitz and throw downfield has the potential to be a lethal combination. Add in Cobb racking up yards after the catch in the slot and you can really see an elite offense taking shape.

Houston's Running Backs

The Texans were widely criticized for their acquisition of David Johnson in the Hopkins trade. Johnson looked slow at times in 2019 and the team already gave up a third-rounder for Duke Johnson. This seems like a major downgrade for this offense, but when you dig deeper you realize that this only enhances Watson’s upside. Both David and Duke Johnson are known more for their receiving abilities, ranking among the best pass-catching backs in the league. David was never a great runner and Duke has been under-utilized on the ground. But this backfield is perfect to unlock Watson.

The team released Carlos Hyde, who led the team in rushing attempts and yards in 2019. Hyde provided almost nothing in the passing game (10 receptions for 42 yards). This means that the Texans will now have an elite receiver in the backfield at all times. Watson can chuck it deep to Fuller, Cooks, or Stills. He can look underneath to Cobb or Coutee. He can also swing it to David or Duke in the flat and rack up YAC. We could also see both backs on the field at the same time, giving Watson a ton of targets at his disposal. The Texans have the ideal personnel to play at a high pace with a pass-heavy focus.

Deshaun Watson's Rushing Upside

Watson is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league. Let’s take a look at how he stacks up against the top runners at his position.

With Fuller, Cooks, and Stills stretching the field, Watson will have more open running lanes to rack up yardage. We could see a career-high in rushing yards this season. When you combine that rushing upside with downfield passing, you have the ideal recipe for elite fantasy production.

An Improving Offensive Line

The Texans have had a much-maligned offensive line for Watson’s entire career, but the future looks bright for this group. The acquisition of former first-round offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil provided a significant boost, as the line improved from 31st to 20th in PFF’s annual rankings. The team returns all five starters in this unit. Continuity is extremely important for offensive lines, so this bodes well for their outlook in 2020. Expect the line to continue to improve.

It’s likely that the front office recognized their O-line as an ascending group, which is why they added Cooks to their group of burners. In previous years, the Texans did not have the pass-blockers to keep Watson upright for this type of Run-n'-Gun style, but they appear ready now.

Additional Factors

Defense

The Texans’ defense has devolved into one of the worst units in the NFL. They allowed 7.3 passing yards per attempt (26th), 267.25 passing yards per game (29th), 4.8 rushing yards per attempt (27th), and 121.06 rushing yards per game (25th). The team selected defensive tackle Ross Blacklock (2nd round), defensive end Jonathan Greenard (3rd round), and cornerback John Reid (4th round) in this year’s NFL Draft. The team did not make any significant additions to the defense in free agency. This is more great news for Watson’s outlook, as he’ll be tasked with airing it out to keep the Texans competitive due to their porous defense.

Schedule

The Texans have potential shootouts against the Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, and Lions. They also get to face the Jaguars and Colts twice, which could also turn into high-scoring games. Best of all, Watson will take on the swiss-cheese Bengals’ defense at home in the finals of the fantasy playoffs. The schedule looks promising for Watson to light up the league in 2020.

Fantasy Outlook

The pieces are in place for a career year for Deshaun Watson. He has the best set of deep threats and slot receiver of his career. He has two running backs who excel in the passing game. He has the rushing upside to eclipse 500 yards and five touchdowns. He has an improving offensive line anchored by a franchise left tackle. He has a porous defense that will force him into shootouts. Finally, he has a soft schedule that includes matchups against the Bengals, Lions, and Jaguars.

Like many, I hated the Hopkins trade - but I now realize that Watson needs to air it deep to unlock his full potential. Deshaun Watson is ready to explode as the top quarterback in fantasy football, so fantasy owners should be ready to act accordingly and strike before his current ADP of 70 overall.

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