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Dom Petrillo's 2020 fantasy football analysis of Cincinnati Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and the top dynasty QB target?
Here at Rotoballer.com, we are dedicated to giving you the best of the best in fantasy football coverage. Part of this commitment is our series of Rookie spotlights. This series of articles gives you the profile of a player who came out in the 2020 NFL draft. It also gives you our thoughts on where to take the players in your fantasy drafts.
With this in mind, here is the rookie profile of Joe Burrow, the number one overall draft pick and hopeful savior of the Cincinnati Bengals. Check back regularly to find more profiles on fantasy-relevant rookies including other quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert.
Now, let's decide what exactly the top pick in the 2020 NFL Draft can deliver for fantasy owners.
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Profile
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
College: LSU
Height/Weight: 6’3" 221 lbs
NFL Draft Pick: Round 1, Pick 1
Scouting Report
Sitting behind J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins at Ohio State was getting old for the Athens, Ohio native. When Justin Fields decided to transfer in from Georgia, Joe Burrow said, "That's it, I'm out!" and left for LSU. What a decision it was.
In his first season in the bayou, Burrow was an alright QB for the Tigers. He was what LSU always has at the position: the dreaded game manager. Throwing for 16 TD and five INT at a 57.8% completion rate was not a great start to his career. But again, this was LSU - a school more known for their defense and running backs than the QB position. 2020 would be a different story entirely.
Playing with a new offense installed by Joe Brady, the Tigers took off. Having the likes of Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire did not hurt either. Oh, and his other receiver Ja'Marr Chase? Yeah, he is the best of them all. So, he had weapons. Because of these weapons, the legend of Joe Burrow took off and ascended into making him the number one overall draft pick in the NFL draft.
Get The Nat pic.twitter.com/1udC79q6cc
— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) January 14, 2020
Not only did his yardage double from 2,897 to 5,671, his TD total went from 16 to 60 and despite throwing 150 more attempts, his INT only went up one to six totals for the 2020 season. Most incredibly than all of this was his completion % which raised from 57.8 all the way to 76.3%. All of these numbers are amazing for any level of football, let alone against the defensive competition of the SEC.
Although the Heisman trophy has become the best QB in the country award, in this case, it was well warranted as he was clearly the best player in the country also.
2020 Fantasy Value
Some analysts have him ranked as a top-12 QB for the season although his consensus rank of Fantasy Pros is currently QB20. This means in most drafts he may not be drafted in single-QB formats. In superflex or two-QB formats, he is likely to be one of those later-round fliers with whom you hope to find a gem. This range feels solid. The team around him with Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd is better than average. If A.J. Green can come back healthy, he is still one of the better wide receivers in the game. Adding a rookie like Tee Higgins, a 6’4" deep threat could also provide a boon to the offense in Cincinnati.
It will be interesting to see what second-year coach Zac Taylor can do with the youngster. We know one thing - the Brown family will be patient with both of them. We also know he will be the unquestioned starter from day one of camp.
All of this leads to one conclusion, He is a draft-worthy asset. In a fantasy world dominated by the late-round QB theory, he could be the next league winner. Is he going to be Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes this season? It's safe to say no. But could he provide you the same production as Kirk Cousins or Daniel Jones at significant savings? This is very possible.
If you like to punt the position and play the streaming game, Joe Burrow may just be the player you want to draft. The Bengals Defense is not good. They will be playing from behind a lot. If Blake Bortles has taught us anything, garbage time counts in the stats as well.
In 2019, the Bengals were bad. You do not get the number one pick any other way. Between all the QB who took a snap for the team, they threw for 3,994 pass yards. Burrow may not get to 4,000. But with the team getting better on offense and with A.J. Green coming back, it is very possible. If not probable. If we could get 3,500 yards and 25 Td from him, we should be incredibly happy. Just please Burrow, keep the INT to a minimum.
Dynasty Outlook
While no one’s outlook is certain, Joe Burrow seemingly will have a great chance to be someone who makes it big for the dynasty format. Whether it is in a single QB or two QB format, Burrow is going to be a Bengal for a long time ,even if he is not at the level of Mahomes. The Bengals are very patient as a franchise, mostly due to their immense cheapness. Either way, it means good things for the players on their roster. Look at the likes of Andy Dalton if you want to see the loyalty given to even average QBs on this team.
When playing dynasty, you need to look three years out. In three years, Burrow will still be on his rookie contract. Joe Mixon will still be a stud in the backfield and Tyler Boyd will have paired with rookie Tee Higgins to replace the aging A.J. Green in the offense. Using this formula, Joe Burrow is the number one rookie draft pick for two QB leagues and is a high first-round pick in single QB leagues as well. If you are in a startup, he would make an exceptionally good second option at QB. Pairing him with the likes of a Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins would be a good foundation at the position. It would also allow you to get other positions earlier in drafts and win a championship sooner rather than later.
There is not a whole lot else to say when it comes to Dynasty. Some may prefer Tua slightly over Burrow but Burrow is the safer pick. He does not have the health concerns and at least for now, the Bengals have a more talented offensive roster surrounding him. This will likely provide him with more immediate success in the NFL.
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