2021 NFL Draft Review - AFC West

Hello and welcome to the seventh 2021 installment of my annual NFL Draft Review. Here are the links to the reviews for the NFC North, AFC North, NFC East, AFC East, AFC South, and NFC South.

Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. The vast majority of 4th-7th round picks don't amount to much, so I stick to the first three rounds. I’ve watched films of each player I’m commenting on and have over seven years of NCAA coaching experience. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 19% of all first-round picks bust.

Over the years I've had some impressive hits (like picking both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota to underwhelm) and embarrassing misses (like underestimating Justin Jefferson). I stick to my process and usually hit on some unpopular predictions. I enjoy arguing the contrarian opinion, but will only do so when my evaluations allow me to.

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Overview

Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example, Kyle Pitts (5). Here's how the picks break down:

5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position.
4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position.
3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production.
2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions.
1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.

Next up, the AFC West.

 

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have been one of the better drafting teams over the last few years, and the future is looking bright in large part due to their young stud franchise QB. I had Justin Herbert as my No. 3 overall player last year, ahead of Tua Tagovailoa. And even I was surprised by how well he played early on. With the right supporting cast and coach, Herbert has MVP-level upside.

Coming into the draft with a need at left tackle, how does adding the guy who shut down Chase Young sound? Rashawn Slater (4) opted out in 2020, but was phenomenal in 2019, allowing zero sacks in 11 games at left tackle. Slater is a traditional franchise LT prospect in terms of pass-blocking prowess, as he displays excellent balance and the ability to simply stay in front of edge rushers. He is light on his feet and secure, showing an understanding of angles and body positioning. Slater's most impressive attribute is his ability to get to the second level in the run game. The only question mark is his lack of ideal arm length (33 inches), which is overblown. Getting him at No. 13 was theft.

In the second round, the Bolts landed another media value pick in Florida State’s Asante Samuel Jr (3). It also happened to fill another major need. I wasn’t super high on Samuel as my No. 58 overall player, but Brandon Staley did a tremendous job with the Rams CB room, and there’s no doubt Samuel has talent. He was productive at Florida State with a lot of PBUs, showed good change-of-direction, and solid speed. His lack of size will be an issue, as I saw him get blocked 30 yards downfield and miss a few tackles against Pitt and Georgia Tech. He also got beat on multiple comebacks, ran up to the slot to press and got toasted by a slot fade, and got a DPI by riding a boundary fade too hard. He didn’t seem very smart or instinctive, which surprised me based on his father.

With the first of their two third-round picks, the Chargers took Tennessee WR Josh Palmer (3), who was one of my favorite players in the draft. Palmer doesn’t have elite measurables or production but could have a similar arc to Alvin Kamara, excelling after being underutilized at underachieving Tennessee. Palmer is tough and pretty much good at everything. He showed out at the Senior Bowl and scored touchdowns against both Tyson Campbell and Patrick Surtain II. He’s not particularly fast or much of a run-after-catch threat but has great hands and the toughness, size, and physicality mix to make it in the NFL. The question is if he’s a backup or starter. I called him a homeless man’s A.J. Brown, but he plays with the type of spirit to prove a lot of people wrong.

The Chargers rounded out a stellar first two days with Georgia TE Tre McKitty (1). McKitty moves well but doesn’t seem special enough to be another more than a body. His lack of production is not typical of a third-rounder. The interesting thing is that he showed a lot of awareness by actually leaving the dumpster fire at Florida State. The Chargers killed it with this draft, but I don’t think McKitty evolves into Antonio Gates.

 

Denver Broncos

As if draft day isn’t eventful enough, how about we add in news about the MVP wanting out?  I definitely believe the Broncos considered Aaron Rodgers on draft day, and it’s possible they passed on Justin Fields at No. 9 because of Rodgers’ reported availability. Adding Patrick Surtain II will help the team, but until they figure out the QB position, it won’t matter. Broncos fans will be following Fields’ career closely.

Surtain II (3) was my No. 20 overall player, so I can’t endorse the pick at No. 9. However, I will admit that part of his allure is that he was one of the cleanest players in the entire draft. His bust risk is small, but playing CB is also really hard.

Surtain was a stalwart in the Alabama secondary the past few years, and his film shows an ideal mix of length, fluid hips, and quickness. Surtain plays with good eye discipline and coverage instincts, but he will give up catches to more physically gifted receivers. He can tackle and play inside, but he will get handsy at the top of routes. His technique is sound when the ball is in the air, as he can get his head around and play through the hands of the WR. Surtain isn't a flashy prospect and might not ever be an All-Pro, but he has the pedigree and traits of a solid starting CB. Is that worth the No. 9 overall pick? With Fields, Slater, and others on the board, I say no.

So after passing on QB and LT, the Broncos traded up to No. 35. Surely, they’d be addressing an important position, right?  While I like Javonte Williams (4) and understand his Nick Chubb-like upside, it’s always fair to question using that high of a pick on an RB.

Williams was the 1A in the nation's most productive RB room at North Carolina, rushing 157 times for 1140 yards (7.3 ypc) and 22 touchdowns in 2020. He has adequate size at 5-10, 212, and tested well in agility drills at his pro day. His long speed didn't flash on film, so his unofficial 4.57 40 wasn't a major surprise, but it does cap his ceiling a bit. Williams' biggest strength is his ability to break tackles, as he broke the most tackles per rush (.48) since PFF started charting college games.

Williams' other positives include a tight burst, balance, low pad level, patience, and a consistent drive forward on every run.  While he runs with spirit and passion, he is not the most creative back and his film is tough to get a great grasp on due to the overwhelming dominance of North Carolina's rushing attack in terms of opening holes. There were long stretches against both Virginia Tech and NC State in which it looked like the defense was overmatched or gave up.

Williams' film also shows some promising pass protection reps, which may allow him to develop into a true three-down back in his second year. He has some borderline special RB-specific traits, and the Broncos traded up with every intention to feature him. Building the roster around the young QB is sometimes the way to go, and Williams will help whoever they draft next year.

With the first of their two third-round picks, the Broncos took Division III standout Quinn Meinerz (1), who saw his postseason draft stock rise in the media only to “fall” to No. 98. I was not surprised by his draft slot, as I had him as my 97^th-ranked player.  Simply put, I didn’t like Meinerz’s game film. He was on the ground the first two plays of the Stagg Bowl and is kind of clunky in terms of movement. He ducks his head, shoulder-blocks, and trips and falls down too much for my liking. I saw him overextend, whiff on a down block, and just end up out of position way too often. I understand he showed out at the Senior Bowl and moves decently well for his size, but I just didn’t see a good pro on his game film.

With their second third-round pick, the Broncos took Ohio State LB Baron Browning (2), who has the traits of a pro starter. He beat Jackson Carman with speed and showed the ability to cover Pat Freiermuth. However, he missed some angles and generally wasn’t as productive as his elite athletic measurables would lead you to believe. In the first game I watched, Trevor Lawrence outran him with speed on a QB keeper. I’m not sure he’s instinctive enough to be anything more than a JAG. There’s special teams upside, though.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders entered GM Mike Mayock’s third draft with needs across the OL and on every level of the defense. The obvious joke about this Raiders class is that if they had taken Moehrig in the first and Leatherwood in the second, no one in the media would have cared. But the fact they took Leatherwood at No. 17 instead made them a punchline. I believe they deserve to be, as I cannot defend their first pick.

Alex Leatherwood (1) was my No. 57 ranked player. He has all the college accolades and he was a great college player. However, his transition from a scheme that simply didn’t have much drop-back passing is going to be a tough one. Leatherwood’s feet don’t seem married to his hands or brain, as I saw him beat by inside moves and spin moves. His hand placement is not good.  He also gets knocked back a lot. While he’s quick on his feet, he catches rather than initiates contact. His greatest strength is working double teams, which makes sense given his history of playing all along the OL. Leatherwood has versatility, durability, and a great college pedigree, which might be good for his floor. But I don’t like his hand placement issues and his transition is going to be tough from the RPO-heavy dreamworld of Alabama. I’ll pick a bust here.

In the second, the Raiders took the media’s favorite safety in TCU’s Trevon Moehrig (3). Moehrig, my No. 36-ranked overall player, is an instinctive, playmaking prospect with ideal size at 6-2, 203. He plays fast and can play both in the box and deep at the next level. A solid open-field tackler, Moehrig probably isn't a man-to-man guy in the NFL but shows terrific instincts and ball skills on film. He is also frequently communicating pre-snap, and his leadership and smarts show up in his play. Is he the difference-maker the Raiders need to drastically improve the defense? Probably not, but he should be a solid pro.

Malcolm Koonce (3) was a head-scratching pick to some in the third, and I did not scout him before the draft. After studying his film, I think the Raiders valued him correctly and the Internet just didn’t have a clue. He was invited to the Senior Bowl but didn’t participate due to injury. Koonce is long and angular with enough bend to make it as a pro EDGE. He showed quickness Ball State tackles couldn’t handle and generally moved better than anyone on the field in that game. His ability to dip and rip is rare, especially with his length. If he can put on some weight and learn to not play so high, he can be something.

Divine Deablo (2) has a tremendous name and made some big-time splash plays throughout his career at Virginia Tech. He fits in as a sub-package LB with the straight-line speed to be an impact special teamer. Deablo picked off Trevor Lawrence and had a 100-yard scoop-and-score against Notre Dame. Will his playmaker trait translate? The NFL is really hard and he’s kind of stiff, so I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs spent their first-round pick on Orlando Brown, who should help a Chiefs OL that even when healthy, really struggled in terms of run-blocking last season. It’s worth noting that the Rams, Seahawks, Bears, and Bills all recently traded first-round picks for veteran players, and all made the playoffs. Over 50% of picks from No. 21 to No. 32 disappoint, so I’m fine with a team in a win-now window trading their first for an established starter.

In the second, the Chiefs added their next defensive captain in Missouri LB Nick Bolton (4). Bolton was the No. 37 player on my board, so getting him at No. 58 was fantastic. Bolton is large (6-0, 237), fast (unofficial 4.59 40), and physical. He's the quintessential alpha Mike backer who will call the defense in KC. Bolton stood up to and at times dominated Najee Harris, and does a great job profiling up offensive players to make plays. He can shoot gaps and run but doesn't have the greatest coverage instincts. Overall, his athletic profile and aggressive style translate well to the pro game. I predict he’ll be an impact defender starting in his rookie year.

Just five picks after solidifying the middle of their defense, the Chiefs took their center of the future in Oklahoma’s Creed Humphrey (2). I was not a huge Humphrey fan pre-draft (No. 78 overall on my board), but it makes sense to get your target at that position. Humphrey has good balance but isn’t overly powerful. I saw him get pushed back and yet still win reps because of his feet. He needs to correct inconsistent outside hand placement, and he’s probably not going to be special. There were better options at OL at this pick and later in the draft.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for the NFC West review in the coming days.

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